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General Election Louth Constituency

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24567…10

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    #32
    CheerLouth
    Registered Users Posts: 2,420 ✭✭✭CheerLouth


    Has Munster really had enough of an impact as a TD though? I think she was far more vocal and visible as a local Councillor, not sure she has made any real impact as a TD, certainly has not been very visible around Drogheda imo.


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    #33
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CheerLouth wrote: »
    Has Munster really had enough of an impact as a TD though? I think she was far more vocal and visible as a local Councillor, not sure she has made any real impact as a TD, certainly has not been very visible around Drogheda imo.
    I'm no great fan but there is a SF vote for at least one seat and as the now "senior" politician should be expected to return. Think SF vote will fall, which means getting 2nd seat will be a challenge. IF FF had a better candidate and from around Ardee SF would be under pressure IMO to even return one.


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    #34
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Salary Negotiator wrote: »
    It's not a very inspiring group of candidates.

    McGahon is being very active in my area in the last few months, while he hasn't knocked on my door I have seen him a few times delivering leaflets at the weekends. He's also had some leaflets delivered with the Dundalk Advertiser.

    I wouldn't like to see him get in, I don't think he's done anything of note on the council and if he wasn't a McGahon he wouldn't be on the ticket.

    His court case done yet?


    I think it'll be 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF and the last seat will be Labour/Green.


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    #35
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    His court case done yet?


    I think it'll be 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF and the last seat will be Labour/Green.
    Court case keeps getting put off! Dearey will not be in the mix.


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    #36
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Court case keeps getting put off! Dearey will not be in the mix.

    I wonder why.

    I'd say he could get close with transfers. I fancy FF to outperform current indications. Pity PaddyPower are just doing plain over/under bets.


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    #37
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I wonder why.

    I'd say he could get close with transfers. I fancy FF to outperform current indications. Pity PaddyPower are just doing plain over/under bets.
    Doubt they will. 2nd candidate is an empty suit and he's up against O'Dowd, Munster and Nash.


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    #38
    event
    Registered Users Posts: 15,962 ✭✭✭✭event


    is_that_so wrote: »
    He had to be helped over the line in both elections with excellent vote management. His vote was predominantly FG. He won't figure on his own and abortion is not an election issue.

    Yeah. In the last one O'Dowd had to basically carry him over the line and ask people to vote for him. Be good to see the back of him. I dislike most politicians cos they are all useless but he takes the biscuit.

    His leaflet was dropped in the door yesterday, its laughable.

    Starts with

    During my time in the dail I have worked on man issues including:

    Reinstatement of acute services for the Louth County hospital.

    I mean, I could say I have worked on inventing time travel in the past 11 years. I'd say I have gotten further in that than Fitzer did with the Louth


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    #39
    gu1nness
    Registered Users Posts: 28 ✭gu1nness


    tayto lover wrote: »
    I can rarely understand a word he says when he’s on the local radio.
    :D:D:D:D:D


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    #40
    darklighter
    Registered Users Posts: 483 ✭✭darklighter


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Doubt they will. 2nd candidate is an empty suit and he's up against O'Dowd, Munster and Nash.

    I cant see any way James Byrne gets in, unless Breathnach has a huge surplus & the north co. FF'ers give him their 2's, which i'd be very sceptical of.

    The lack of a strong mid-Louth candidate leaves a good chunk of votes up for grabs, that vote has swayed towards Dundalk in the past to no great effect, might they decide to look towards Drogheda for a change? Will any of the Drogheda candidates even make an effort to court that vote?

    Louth must be the largest constituency to be without any sort of minister, Breathnach & Nash should be pushing their possible credentials to siphon a few extra votes


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    #41
    event
    Registered Users Posts: 15,962 ✭✭✭✭event


    darklighter wrote: »
    I cant see any way James Byrne gets in, unless Breathnach has a huge surplus & the north co. FF'ers give him their 2's, which i'd be very sceptical of.

    The lack of a strong mid-Louth candidate leaves a good chunk of votes up for grabs, that vote has swayed towards Dundalk in the past to no great effect, might they decide to look towards Drogheda for a change? Will any of the Drogheda candidates even make an effort to court that vote?

    Louth must be the largest constituency to be without any sort of minister, Breathnach & Nash should be pushing their possible credentials to siphon a few extra votes

    True. I cant see any of our candidates getting one either, regardless of what govt gets in :(


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    #42
    joeysoap
    Registered Users Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    +1

    we’ve enough poor ministers as it stands. Don’t need another one.


    Remind me again, who signed the blasphemy law that took a referendum to undo?

    What minister decided you can’t buy a bottle of wine on Sunday until 12.30?

    And who jumped ship when the seas got rough?


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    #43
    Lord TSC
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 42,404 Mod ✭✭✭✭Lord TSC


    I see Leo himself has his face plastered on every second light pole up and down the Dublin road now.

    Is that normal? It’s bad enough the local candidates slather the posters everywhere, but now we are getting the leaders too? I’d imagine the others will be following suit soon, doubling the number of posters were getting.


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    #44
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Lord TSC wrote: »
    I see Leo himself has his face plastered on every second light pole up and down the Dublin road now.

    Is that normal? It’s bad enough the local candidates slather the posters everywhere, but now we are getting the leaders too? I’d imagine the others will be following suit soon, doubling the number of posters were getting.
    He's doing that everywhere, as is Martin.


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    #45
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    darklighter wrote: »
    I cant see any way James Byrne gets in, unless Breathnach has a huge surplus & the north co. FF'ers give him their 2's, which i'd be very sceptical of.

    The lack of a strong mid-Louth candidate leaves a good chunk of votes up for grabs, that vote has swayed towards Dundalk in the past to no great effect, might they decide to look towards Drogheda for a change? Will any of the Drogheda candidates even make an effort to court that vote?

    Louth must be the largest constituency to be without any sort of minister, Breathnach & Nash should be pushing their possible credentials to siphon a few extra votes
    There's been nobody since Kirk left the stage Don't Labour have someone around there? Did notice that Dearey and Fitzpatrick have posters very far south!


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    #46
    ytpe2r5bxkn0c1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ytpe2r5bxkn0c1


    is_that_so wrote: »
    There's been nobody since Kirk left the stage Don't Labour have someone around there? Did notice that Dearey and Fitzpatrick have posters very far south!

    Breathnach and Kirk are from the same parish.


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    #47
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,485 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Have been trying to decide who to give my number 1 to and I’m stumped.
    We have an absolute load of rubbish to select from.


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    #48
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Arya Fresh Plantation wrote: »
    Breathnach and Kirk are from the same parish.
    Yeah, but he's seen as a Dundalk TD.


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    #49
    10green bottles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭10green bottles


    Possible that Meave Yore(Ind) could run in Louth/E Meath.
    Same vote and little variant between Fitzpatrick/Fg.


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    #50
    joeysoap
    Registered Users Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Independent, first councilor elected in Louth. No votes outside Dundalk though.


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    #51
    Pighead
    Registered Users Posts: 14,182 ✭✭✭✭Pighead


    10green bottles wrote: »
    Possible that Meave Yore(Ind) could run in Louth/E Meath.
    Same vote and little variant between Fitzpatrick/Fg.
    Think she ruled herself out last week. Deadline for nominations is tomorrow so it looks as if we have our full set of candidates now. Think there's thirteen in total.


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    #52
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    New poll suggests that maybe SF will hold their two seats and it will be as you were but lots of time to go.


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    #53
    sibersha
    Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭sibersha


    Below are the bookmaker odds and chance of being elected based on the odds

    Munster 1/14 [82.6%]
    Breathnach 1/9 [79.6%]
    O'Dowd 1/7 [77.5%]
    Nash 1/5 [73.6%]
    Fitzpatrick 8/15 [57.8%]
    O'Murchu 5/4 [39.3%]
    McGahon 13/8 [33.7%]
    Byrne 2/1 [29.5%]
    Deary 10/3 [20.4%]
    Sweeney 25/1 [3.4%]
    Bird 33/1 [2.6%]


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    #54
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    sibersha wrote: »
    Below are the bookmaker odds and chance of being elected based on the odds

    Munster 1/14 [82.6%]
    Breathnach 1/9 [79.6%]
    O'Dowd 1/7 [77.5%]
    Nash 1/5 [73.6%]
    Fitzpatrick 8/15 [57.8%]
    O'Murchu 5/4 [39.3%]
    McGahon 13/8 [33.7%]
    Byrne 2/1 [29.5%]
    Deary 10/3 [20.4%]
    Sweeney 25/1 [3.4%]
    Bird 33/1 [2.6%]
    Fitzpatrick will not get back in as an Indo. Even a FPV of 20% should see 2 FG but Nash still in it for sure.


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    #55
    Pighead
    Registered Users Posts: 14,182 ✭✭✭✭Pighead


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Fitzpatrick will not get back in as an Indo. Even a FPV of 20% should see 2 FG but Nash still in it for sure.
    Wouldn't completely rule out Fitzpatrick. He was recently elected GAA County chairman and will be in all the papers next week when the sod is turned on the new county grounds on the Inner Relief road. Should do well amongst the GAA supporters around the county.


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    #56
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And may be more transfer-friendly now without FG after his name.


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    #57
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Pighead wrote: »
    Wouldn't completely rule out Fitzpatrick. He was recently elected GAA County chairman and will be in all the papers next week when the sod is turned on the new county grounds on the Inner Relief road. Should do well amongst the GAA supporters around the county.
    Yeah but he's really not a good vote getter. His time in the Dail was courtesy of the FG organisation.


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    #58
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    And may be more transfer-friendly now without FG after his name.
    Who'd transfer to him? The only lower order option likely to have votes is Dearey and he could go anywhere.


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    #59
    ytpe2r5bxkn0c1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ytpe2r5bxkn0c1


    Deleted User wrote: »
    And may be more transfer-friendly now without FG after his name.

    He's not remotely transfer friendly.


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    #60
    event
    Registered Users Posts: 15,962 ✭✭✭✭event


    Pighead wrote: »
    Wouldn't completely rule out Fitzpatrick. He was recently elected GAA County chairman and will be in all the papers next week when the sod is turned on the new county grounds on the Inner Relief road. Should do well amongst the GAA supporters around the county.

    Those GAA supporters will be FF or SF people mainly I reckon


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    #61
    joeysoap
    Registered Users Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    The GAA vote is overplayed, mostly by Fitzer himself is has to be said.Cant see him picking up many 1st votes in Drogheda. Munster, O’Dowd, Nash and Byrne will get the majority of those. I suspect the 2nds will stay in Drogheda too.


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