€25k invested in prize bonds

Itsdacraic · 14-11-2011 8:19pm

Lisa2011 wrote: »

Why do you say that because all the advertisements on tv say you get back the face value of the prize bonds and plus my brother is qualified in tax and says they are exempt.

How can something be exempt from inflation?

What they mean is that €25,000 might be worth a lot less in 5 years due to inflation.

uberwolf · 14-11-2011 8:32pm

well this prompted to check my 10punt pair of prizebonds from 1997. No joy. 14 years and not a thing.

Onikage · 14-11-2011 11:15pm

Lisa2011 wrote: »

Prizebonds bought January €2.5k
Winnings €75

€75 won two weeks after PBs were issued and nothing since then. what a shame

Wow! That's a 3% return tax free if you cash out after 12 months which is fair to middling, but a 12% return if you had cashed out after the minimum 3 months...

[Deleted User] · 15-11-2011 1:20pm

I purchased just under 45K worth of Prize bonds in June 2010.

So far I have won €75 15 times. €1125 (I think) in total.

daveyboy_1ie · 16-11-2011 2:31pm

TheTorment wrote: »

I purchased just under 45K worth of Prize bonds in June 2010.

So far I have won €75 15 times. €1125 (I think) in total.

Done a quick calculation and by reckoning if you had of kept this money in the AIB Deposit 7 account (first €10K is 3% and after this the return is about 1.99%) you would probably have earnt about €1,036 on the 17 months so far.

I stand to be corrected (I usually get these things wrong), but these are my calculations:

10,000 @ 3%, for 6 months (less DIRT at 26% until Dec 31, 2010) = €111
10,000 @ 3%, for 11 months (less DIRT at 27% from Jan 01st, 2011) = €201

35,000 @ 1.99%, for 6 months (less DIRT at 26% until Dec 31, 2010) = €258
35,000 @ 1.99%, for 11 months (less DIRT at 27% from Jan 01st, 2011) = €466

All very crude calculations and I expect DIRT to be raised again soon so the figures will get worse next year for returns from the bank.

Anyway IF these figures are right you are a tiny bit ahead and if you continue to get those returns I would keep the investment. Thats my two cents anyways.

[Deleted User] · 16-11-2011 4:19pm

daveyboy_1ie wrote: »

Done a quick calculation and by reckoning if you had of kept this money in the AIB Deposit 7 account (first €10K is 3% and after this the return is about 1.99%) you would probably have earnt about €1,036 on the 17 months so far.

I stand to be corrected (I usually get these things wrong), but these are my calculations:

10,000 @ 3%, for 6 months (less DIRT at 26% until Dec 31, 2010) = €111
10,000 @ 3%, for 11 months (less DIRT at 27% from Jan 01st, 2011) = €201

35,000 @ 1.99%, for 6 months (less DIRT at 26% until Dec 31, 2010) = €258
35,000 @ 1.99%, for 11 months (less DIRT at 27% from Jan 01st, 2011) = €466

All very crude calculations and I expect DIRT to be raised again soon so the figures will get worse next year for returns from the bank.

Anyway IF these figures are right you are a tiny bit ahead and if you continue to get those returns I would keep the investment. Thats my two cents anyways.

Thanks for that Dave.
Its nice to think in my head that I have "pulled one over on the bank!!"

pbwinner · 18-11-2011 1:58pm

daveyboy_1ie wrote: »

Bought €3,000 of PB's in late July

So far on the €3,000 invested, total winnings = €75

Great feeling when I logged into my bond tracker account yesterday. €75 draw won on Friday, which puts me just about evens for the year on €3K and in reality I am ahead as its been only 4 months.

Incidently, it says to claim the prize I have to contact them at their address enclosing the winning bond certificate. I thought a cheque is sent to your registetred address. Can anyone advise on this?

yes - the cheque comes in the post though you have probably got it by now!

pbwinner · 18-11-2011 2:00pm

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb '11 on €25k: €300

Man of Aran · 21-11-2011 3:52pm

Sorry I deleted my earlier post whilst editing.

Family members with a combined investement in PB of over 100,000Euro win an annual E2,250 or about 30 wins. That conforms with the lower end of the 2~3 % return the experts have always calculated. Not great but its still something if can offset CPI. Safer than under the mattress.

There's a wagon load of money being parked in PB bonds - waiting for better days or next great opportunity to come along. PB's are selling at the rate of 1 million new bonds a week - currently at QB or QC

issue. About 50 million new bonds for 2011.

Add that to the 215 to 240 million bonds estimated to be in the pool already, it's pretty evident that 16, 160 or even 16,000 entries are but a drop in the ocean.

feichfidh muid ar aghaidh!

brownbeard · 22-11-2011 2:13pm

Winnings today: €75
Total winnings since Mar '11 on €1k: €150

Sonnenblumen · 22-11-2011 6:07pm

Man of Aran wrote: »

Sorry I deleted my earlier post whilst editing.

Family members with a combined investement in PB of over 100,000Euro win an annual E2,250 or about 30 wins. That conforms with the lower end of the 2~3 % return the experts have always calculated. Not great but its still something if can offset CPI. Safer than under the mattress.

There's a wagon load of money being parked in PB bonds - waiting for better days or next great opportunity to come along. PB's are selling at the rate of 1 million new bonds a week - currently at QB or QC
issue. About 50 million new bonds for 2011.

Add that to the 215 to 240 million bonds estimated to be in the pool already, it's pretty evident that 16, 160 or even 16,000 entries are but a drop in the ocean.

feichfidh muid ar aghaidh!

Wow that's some sales increase, not surprising really but still, they'll need to increase number and value of prizes.

daveyboy_1ie · 23-11-2011 1:54pm

brownbeard wrote: »

Winnings today: €75
Total winnings since Mar '11 on €1k: €150

Draw was last Friday no?

Thats some return, 15% already and its only 9/10 months since you invested. You are doing very well indeed.

daveyboy_1ie · 23-11-2011 1:55pm

pbwinner wrote: »

yes - the cheque comes in the post though you have probably got it by now!

Got it, cashed it and paid a chunk of car tax with it. Easy come, easy go.

Man of Aran · 24-11-2011 7:51am

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Wow that's some sales increase, not surprising really but still, they'll need to increase number and value of prizes.

AN Post / NTMA should consider to overhaul the top end prizes for sure - high end value on weekly draws and more of them, not just increasing the E.75 frequency alone. Last week there were 7,688 prizes drawn of which Top 1 was 20k, 5 of 1K and 10 prizes of Euro 250.

An Post / NTMA website indicates that 1000 Euro worth or 160 bonds over 52 weeks of draws has a 3,5 to 1 odds against any win. (all tickets go back in or reset weekly)
They should state simply in terms of the probability of 1 bond in 1 weeks draw for the Top ; 2nd ; 3rd prizes and E.75 Runner Up Prizes.
For the 1 Top Prize weekly , to me it would simply seem as 1 in 240 million chance currently.
I have read elsewhere that typical 6/49 Lottos have a 1 in 13 million chance of Jackpot.
Accepting that PB is perpetual chance whereas Lotto ticket is 'throwaway', the case may well be argued that An Post / NTMA should try to make PB's on par if not better odds with Lotto than presently to keep them attractive.

Ansin beidh ri ra agus ruaille buaille againn!

pbwinner · 25-11-2011 5:19pm

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb '11 on €25k: €300

hellboy99 · 25-11-2011 5:26pm

I've have prizebonds now for near 13 years and not won a cent.

Max_Charger · 25-11-2011 9:26pm

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Aug '11 on €5k: €0

brownbeard · 26-11-2011 2:07am

daveyboy_1ie wrote: »

Draw was last Friday no?

That's right, but I don't check it online every week anymore. I only posted up after the cheque arrived.

daveyboy_1ie wrote: »

Thats some return, 15% already and its only 9/10 months since you invested. You are doing very well indeed.

Indeed! But obviously from reading the thread it's not the norm. People usually get a much lower return even with much more invested. I almost feel like I owe it to the state to keep the bonds in for the rest of the year even though a third win has almost astronomical odds!

Man of Aran · 26-11-2011 2:56pm

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/57265/winning-on-prize-bonds

There's a lot of fascinating research available online on lotteries, draws & gaming odds - working out probabilities with factorials and combinations.
The link above is quite useful.

It would be great to know how many bonds exactly are in the hat.

Onikage · 29-11-2011 10:21am

Man of Aran wrote: »

It would be great to know how many bonds exactly are in the hat.

Can this be calculated from the sequence number? What happens to bonds that are cashed in, do they get returned to the pool?

Man of Aran · 01-12-2011 11:44am

From the stated odds of 3.6 to 1 against, you could very roughly approximate ....

N / 7688 / 160 / 52 = 3.6

=> N = 230,000 million bonds approx.

(based on PB site FAQ statement of 3.6 to 1 for 160 bonds over 52 weeks chance to win any prize at all : last week there were 7688 prizes and *52 makes the leap of faith that it's all lumped in a 'once off draw' , not precisely true of course as all drawn weekly numbers reset or go back in hat for next draw).

However, from serial sequence, there should be about 450 million bonds issued. We dont know the cashed in or redeemed values , assume those 'stubs' would then need to be removed from the pool,cant think why would they remain as dead numbers.

000001 to 999999 1 million bonds
A000001 to Z999999 26 million bonds
AA000001 to PZ999999 416 million bonds
QA to QD currently, some 4 million bonds +/-

So that would suggest 447 million bonds issued if I am not mistaken.

Anyone got other opinions?
NTMA should clarify for the public - their customer. Odds are weak enough at 230 million bonds, much worse if nearer 450 million.

**************************************************

"Bainne an bo 's an gamhna, but the juice of the barley for me "
< Makem & Clancy RIP>

Sonnenblumen · 01-12-2011 7:00pm

Does anyone know if the draws are independently monitored/verified? Is there a public source to view all prize winning numbers?

One would presume that redeemed bond numbers are would be excluded from all draws?

I recently saw (for the first time) a TV ad displaying the bond number for the € 1mio prize.

pbwinner · 02-12-2011 8:53pm

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb '11 on €25k: €300

pbwinner · 02-12-2011 8:55pm

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Does anyone know if the draws are independently monitored/verified? Is there a public source to view all prize winning numbers?

One would presume that redeemed bond numbers are would be excluded from all draws?

I recently saw (for the first time) a TV ad displaying the bond number for the € 1mio prize.

All those answers on www.prizebonds.ie

Man of Aran · 03-12-2011 1:41pm

pbwinner wrote: »

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb '11 on €25k: €300

Not a rex in my camp either with over 100K euro combined worth of bonds.

Think that reality and dis-illusionment setting in with PB scheme, unless it's restructured soon so more attractive win profiles to draw new or retain existing clients.
Currently they are not a wise long term investment.

Time to move some money into Emerging Market opportunities like China, not so much faith in the other BRI of BRIC economies.

There will be one heck of a relief rally ahead of the full recovery once this European contagion gets resolved, real soon.

Fortune favours the bold .... but fools rush in also!

********************************************
"An Spealadoir .... feir na comharsann treascarta faoi ciarog na greine"

midgej · 05-12-2011 10:13pm

Bought 5K of Prize Bonds on 01 Nov, won €75 on 18 Nov.
I'm just planning on keeping them for 3 months as the money is earmarked for something else in Feb.
My figures could be wrong, but based on keeping them 3 months I calculate that I've a 6% AER return so far - better than any other short term investment option, and there's always the hope winning more between now & Feb. I don't think I'd consider PB's as a long term investment option but I'm definitely happy with my little investment so far!

hots · 05-12-2011 10:33pm

I bought €1,000 worth of pbs about 6 weeks ago and won €75 in my first draw, so that will pay for them to sit there until I need them next summer anyway...

My only reason for purchasing was the difficulty of withdrawal, which is pretty handy as I know I would have taken them back already if it wasn't an effort to get them back....

augusta24 · 08-12-2011 6:58pm

I've got a decent sum of money just sitting in the bank for a few years now... Never really thought about prize bonds before but I'm thinking strongly now! How would I go about buying them with such a large sum of money? Do I need to set up a post office account or something? I'm probably looking at between 18-20k

soterpisc · 08-12-2011 7:48pm

I had 40k in prizebonds for a year, won about 475 euros... So 1%. Not a great return compared to other safe investiment options.

augusta24 · 08-12-2011 7:59pm

soterpisc wrote: »

I had 40k in prizebonds for a year, won about 475 euros... So 1%. Not a great return compared to other safe investiment options.

I agree but it sounds like a good idea for me as I can't afford to put my money into a savings or investment scheme as I may need to take it back out in a year or two so it's either prize bonds or sitting in my current account like it has been for about a year!

€25k invested in prize bonds

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