Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2017.

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2017 7:23am

Talim dumped 455 mm of rain in 24 hours on Miyakojima, 340 mm of which fell in 12 hours.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=47927&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2017&mes=09&day=14&hora=05

Meanwhile Docksuri Is heading for Vietnam, to make landfall at around 90 knots tomorrow.

Storm 10 · 15-09-2017 9:49pm

Jose heading for New York

http://mashable.com/2017/09/15/hurricane-jose-threatens-east-coast/ coast

Donegal Storm · 15-09-2017 11:03pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Meanwhile Docksuri Is heading for Vietnam, to make landfall at around 90 knots tomorrow.

I was in that part of Vietnam this time last year and they had some major flooding that lasted for weeks and left tens of thousands homeless, looks like it'll be another repeat this year unfortunately

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-asia-storm-vietnam/typhoon-tears-across-vietnam-skirting-key-coffee-region-idUKKCN1BQ0EN

Gaoth Laidir · 15-09-2017 11:07pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Jose heading for New York

http://mashable.com/2017/09/15/hurricane-jose-threatens-east-coast/ coast

Not according to the NHC. It looks more like heading nearer to Boston, but in any case it will be just a tropical storma at that stage. Not one model has it going anywhere close to NY.

Meanwhile, here's a cool image of Typhoon Talim at night right now, with the city lights of China and Taiwan clearly visible.

20170915.1913.f16.x.vis1km.20WTALIM.70kts-969mb-284N-1252E.100pc.jpg

BumperD · 16-09-2017 12:10pm

Not far away from another possibly two named storms being assigned the tropics. The system on front of TD Fourteen has likely more potential given it is tracking towards the carribbean

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands have continued to
become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development and a tropical cyclone could form at any time
today or Sunday so while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Donegal Storm · 16-09-2017 8:05pm

TD15 forecast to become a hurricane soon (likely Maria) and follow an almost identical track as Irma, right across Barbuda, St Maarten etc. Hopefully with Irma churning up the seas there won't be as much warm water available to aid its growth

Oneiric 3 · 17-09-2017 6:41pm

TS Maria showing signs that it may become a hurricane soon:

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2017 8:34pm

Looks like the outer edge of Jose glancing Rhode Island about Weds, by that stage forecast to be a Tropical Storm, before drifting back out to sea and the GFS shows it meandering about while slowly dissipating.

5PJsh0K.gif?1

ECM showing similar track initially then doubling back and moving inland somewhere around Norfolk by Sunday in a much weakened state.

Fc7YWLe.gif?1

Rikand · 18-09-2017 12:53pm

According to Metalert Ireland's facebook page ::

HURRICANE MARIA ON SIMILAR TRACK AS IRMA

The National Hurricane Centre has confirmed the tropical storm system has now reached a category one hurricane with further upgrades expected. Maria is expected to become a major hurricane later tonight.
As of midday Irish time Hurricane Maria has sustained winds of 150kmh and located approx 150km's E of Martinique.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

https://www.facebook.com/metalertireland/photos/a.553836261375522.1073741828.530589560366859/1493583687400770/?type=3&theater

Samaris · 18-09-2017 6:03pm

Any likelyhood of Maria veering north like Jose rather than Irmaing through the Carribbean again, or is it too early to tell?

(To add update, Maria appears to be a Cat 3 as of an hour ago, with indications of hitting the Leeward Isles Monday night local time.)

[Deleted User] · 18-09-2017 7:10pm

Samaris wrote: »

Any likelyhood of Maria veering north like Jose rather than Irmaing through the Carribbean again, or is it too early to tell?

(To add update, Maria appears to be a Cat 3 as of an hour ago, with indications of hitting the Leeward Isles Monday night local time.)

Unfortunately not it seems. Puerto Rico which escaped a direct hit from Irma looks to be in danger from Maria. It may pass directly over the island as a cat 4.

Samaris · 19-09-2017 7:23am

Jesus, developed into a Cat 5 and steamrolled over Dominica.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/19/hurricane-maria-landfall-dominica-caribbean-category-five-storm-live

Seems to have dropped a bit into just barely a Cat 4 (borderline 5 rather than 3) and is approaching Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. It's bloody awful for anyone already hit (or y'know, hit at all), but if the hurricane hits Puerto Rico and devastates it too - PR is the hub for getting aid out to all the islands so... the islands will have to be prepared for the worst. Dominica's coast sent it a fraction northwards, although not sure if that's good or bad.

Maria's hit Guadeloupe as a Cat 4 about six hours ago (well, the storm; stay inside warnings were in effect from six hours ago).

Also, Jose has meandered up around New York apparently?

Gaoth Laidir · 19-09-2017 7:31am

No, Jose is nowhere near NY.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-09-2017 7:18pm

Stunning animation of the exposed centre of José last Monday

Gaoth Laidir · 24-09-2017 7:57am

Lee had died a death two days ago but has now reformed and has become a hurricane. It may reach Cat 3 as it loiters out in mid-Atlantic

[Deleted User] · 25-09-2017 11:58am

Hurricane Lee at dawn today. Currently has winds of 90mph but is a small system with tropical storm force winds only extending out 30 nautical miles from the centre.

[Deleted User] · 27-09-2017 12:39pm

Lee still pretty impressive looking in the Atlantic this morning. 110mph currently.

GeneHunt · 28-09-2017 1:33am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Lee had died a death two days ago but has now reformed and has become a hurricane. It may reach Cat 3 as it loiters out in mid-Atlantic

Lee has now reached Cat 3 & Maria has reformed to Cat 1 again, both expected to wed in the mid-Atlantic on Friday night/ Satuarday morning and looks like hitting the Irish coastline (Mayo, Donegal) this Sunday as a post tropical storm.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2017 6:08am

GeneHunt wrote: »

Lee has now reached Cat 3 & Maria has reformed to Cat 1 again, both expected to wed in the mid-Atlantic on Friday night/ Satuarday morning and looks like hitting the Irish coastline (Mayo, Donegal) this Sunday as a post tropical storm.

The ECMWF says no. Lee goes south and dissipates, Maria fills before Ireland and brings nothing more than some moisture.

star gazer · 04-10-2017 4:55pm

Tropical Depression 16 has formed East of Nicaragua and it is forecast to become a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Land interaction over the next couple of days will be important to how powerful this gets with other conditions conducive to intensification.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-10-2017 10:29pm

There's some very high ocean heat content of up to 150 kJ/cm² along the projected path at 48-72 hours. It's a fairly narrow area, but depending on the exact track it could cause rapid intensification as it heads out into the Gulf, but slightly further west it's over much cooler water (and land). One to watch.

carltonleon · 06-10-2017 7:58am

So Tropical Storm Nate killed at least 22 people in Central America on Thursday as it hit the region with heavy rain. It looks like it's heading toward Mexico's Caribbean resorts and the US Gulf Coast.

More details - http://www.independent.ie/world-news/latin-america/storm-nate-kills-22-in-central-america-and-is-heading-for-us-amid-fears-it-could-strike-as-category-1-hurricane-36202196.html

Gaoth Laidir · 06-10-2017 9:40pm

Nate is over some very high ocean heat content right now but will not encounter such warm depth over the rest of its track. The models don't show much happening intensity-wise, with it struggling to even reach Cat 1 by the Gulf coast.

star gazer · 06-10-2017 10:40pm

Tropical Storm Nate has strengthed with some additional strengthening forecast. It's forward movement at 33 km/h should limit the time for it to intensify a lot further though it may interact less with the Yucatan Peninsula than previously forecast.
Eyewall development is something to look out for. After the season that's gone by so far, rapid intensification shouldn't be ruled out.

NHC

..HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...20.3N 85.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

Up to a two and a half meter storm surge from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border forecast.

Gaoth Laidir · 07-10-2017 12:21am

A nice close-up of the vigorous convection.

20171006.2230.goes13.x.vis1km_high.16LNATE.45kts-996mb-194N-853W.100pc.jpg

star gazer · 07-10-2017 11:19am

Hurriccane Nate is moving quickly towards landfall probably somewhere between the New Orleans area and Pensacola. Nate did a lot of rainfall damage in parts of Central America with tragic loss of life as it was moving slowly at the time allowing greater concentrations of rainfall. Some moderate strengthening is still forecast before landfall.
NHC

LOCATION...24.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Radar for the area as it gets closer.

Meteorite58 · 07-10-2017 11:31am

A relatively fast moving Cat 1 Hurricane and Tropical Storm after making landfall initially and a Tropical Depression thereafter all transitioning within 24hrs or so, Storm surge and flooding the main issue with this system.

Currently in an area with little wind shear, set to increase wind speed slightly before landfall to sustained 90mph and quickly drop to 45mph and further decrease whilst moving inland.

BeIZpXf.gif?1

star gazer · 07-10-2017 4:29pm

It's more organised now and forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. It's moving at 43km/h so that should make landfall soon enough to prevent it getting to Major Hurricane strength, though it may be close. Hopefully preperations are effective and the late intensification doesn't catch people off guard.
Potential storm surge of up to three and a quarter meters from the Mississippi river to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

NHC

LOCATION...26.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

Gaoth Laidir · 07-10-2017 6:07pm

It's only the storm's fast forward speed - currently 23 knots - that's producing hurricane-force winds of around 77 knots on the surface east of track. West of track surface winds are just 50 knots. Storm-relative winds (disregarding its motion) are somewhere in between; around 60 knots tops.

Meteorite58 · 07-10-2017 6:15pm

National Hurricane Centre most worried about Storm surge over a wide area, saying remaining as a Tropical storm well inland as moving relatively fast. Could drop a ft of water on the Appalachians.

PehUMMN.jpg?1

https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/916698784989663232

Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2017.

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