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Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    I can see mt's logic in thinking air from the south meeting up with the still colder Atlantic will give us a stormy winter but I wonder
    Stormyness of the previous few winters was caused by extremely cold air exiting North America and interacting with the normal Atlantic temp
    Its no coincidence that after 2 mammoth US and Canadian winters that surface water temps over the north Atlantic lowered
    I dont buy the ice melt theory being the biggest cause of that

    Will a flow from a deflected azores high mixing in the N Atlantic cause as stormy a season this winter? I am sceptical, I dont think the drop is enough to make much difference in the temperature variance as one passes over the other compared to what happened recently with bitter air exiting America
    So I'm thinking a quieter atlantic and more of an easterly/northeasterly influence on our weather this winter?
    Not all the time but enough to satisfy certain fixes around here...


  • Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    I know these headlines are often pure spoof but they do it for me. They turn me on something awful. Winter Weather porn is my favourite genre. :)
    just aswell your called Baggy Trousers then eh? maybe call your self wigwam trousers ;-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I can see mt's logic in thinking air from the south meeting up with the still colder Atlantic will give us a stormy winter but I wonder
    Stormyness of the previous few winters was caused by extremely cold air exiting North America and interacting with the normal Atlantic temp
    Its no coincidence that after 2 mammoth US and Canadian winters that surface water temps over the north Atlantic lowered
    I dont buy the ice melt theory being the biggest cause of that

    Will a flow from a deflected azores high mixing in the N Atlantic cause as stormy a season this winter? I am sceptical, I dont think the drop is enough to make much difference in the temperature variance as one passes over the other compared to what happened recently with bitter air exiting America
    So I'm thinking a quieter atlantic and more of an easterly/northeasterly influence on our weather this winter?
    Not all the time but enough to satisfy certain fixes around here...

    It is going to be interesting to see how it turns out this coming winter. I would agree with that possible north American influence on those SSTs, at least in part.

    Just looking at N.Atlantic SST anomalies during Winter 1989/1990, which was one of the stormiest in living memory, they actually look fairly similar to the present, although deviations during the previous August/Sept were not as deep as they are now overall.

    Atlantic SST anom for Feb '90. Incredibly stormy month.

    361593.PNG


    Mean SLP & 850 hPa temp departure for that month:

    361594.PNG

    Very tight gradient, which obviously was spurred on by the sharp temp differences between Europe and the Atlantic.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    The long range Autumn forecast for eastern parts of Canada and America was issued last Monday from the weather network. It will be below normal . Lots of cold air pushing out into the Atlantic.m:D


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mycroft H wrote: »
    BgMxJZdIAAAJden.jpg

    Just to warm the thread up.

    Great picture!

    7088EACC79674533A45BF335DF383673-0000335757-0003795594-00800L-76B3C76EC276405AA74823A382354C19.jpg

    Same place in more clement weather! :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    DOCARCH wrote: »

    Same place in more clement weather! :)

    Thanks, Where is that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The long range Autumn forecast for eastern parts of Canada and America was issued last Monday from the weather network. It will be below normal . Lots of cold air pushing out into the Atlantic.m:D

    It was cold air pushing into the Atlantic from the northeastern US which was one of the factors in the increased Atlantic storms we've seen here in recent winters past.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Thanks, Where is that?

    I can't remember the name of the place, but it's in Sligo...same mountain range as Benbulben.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I can't remember the name of the place, but it's in Sligo...same mountain range as Benbulben.
    cracking looking spot in both pics


  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭Deatr


    Looks like Helms Deep behind the house!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    For the sake of clarity, I was earlier speculating that the cold pool will provide alternating periods of stormy and blocked (cold easterly) circulation types. There is considerable speculation that the El Nino will become central Pacific based (known as a Modoki type El Nino after a Japanese researcher who first suggested the variation). A recent example was 2009-10.

    Nuff said.

    I have been busy updating my research model to see what sort of background long wave features might be interacting with this rather singular set-up we have. What this tells me at this early stage is that December looks particularly stormy and late January into February looks more suitable for a block to develop over Europe.

    This will be studied for several more weeks here at the Craniatorium and I will go out on the usual limb mid-October and drop off the results like those squirrels who like to toss chestnuts onto the roof of your car at this time of year (or do they just fall off at random?).


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think this Winter will be everything and not boring.

    Storms followed by wintry showers followed by frost then same again. No one weather will dominate

    Think we may be waiting all winter for the big cold spell but therel be so much weather going on we may not notice.

    Think when this winters done a cold stormy one will be the consensus. The sea temps are crazy and the differential in the sea temps at various latitudes is only going to exacerbate the stormy situation.

    There may be more snow than recent winters too but with a highly mobile atlantic these wont last long like 2010.

    Thats my long range forecast as right or wrong as it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 697 ✭✭✭Theanswers


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I can't remember the name of the place, but it's in Sligo...same mountain range as Benbulben.

    Benwisken, up near truskmore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    This would also pretty much guarantee that the autumn won't be a lot different in trends from this past summer, at best it would be near normal and likely wetter and slightly cooler than average.

    th?id=JN.NvtyGZWug0fYJSSqRDupaA
    image.jpg

    Can you crack my code? :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Leaning well snooker? ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,168 ✭✭✭secman


    Well....... balls to that !


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    secman wrote: »
    Well....... balls to that !

    Well balls indeed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 83 ✭✭morticia2


    Just wondering; bit sceptical re North America's long term below average temp winter forecast?
    Is it not normally the case that strong El Niño events cause warmer winters over North America? Calgary's skiers were always dreading El Niño and praying for La Niña events.


  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    Just watched a long range forecast on youtube and it looks like very heavy snow for mid december and xmas time :):)


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Just watched a long range forecast on youtube and it looks like very heavy snow for mid december and xmas time :):)

    Isn't it the same every year?


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Isn't it the same every year?

    Yes. Heavy snow for Christmas and heat waves for summer. Same predictions every year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    I think this winter we will be chasing NW snow. With Sligo, Galway and Donegal getting brief flurries.

    I can seen a few bans and in fractions because this thread will have a few rollercoaster.

    I think exaggeration will be the theme of this winter. By Mid Jan, no matter how remote the possibility of snow, it will be posted, analyzed and the masses will decide that it will happen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    Loughc wrote: »
    Yes. Heavy snow for Christmas and heat waves for summer. Same predictions every year.

    No this guy even predicted our bad summer and rather mild winter last year so im confident in him.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Metmaster wrote: »
    No this guy even predicted our bad summer and rather mild winter last year so im confident in him.

    We have a bad summer and mild winter pretty much every year. Haha.

    But hey I hope he's right I love snow. But I don't see it happening myself. I've been hurt too many times on this forum before :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    Loughc wrote: »
    We have a bad summer and mild winter pretty much every year. Haha.

    But hey I hope he's right I love snow. But I don't see it happening myself. I've been hurt too many times on this forum before :(
    Exactly it more or less a waiting game but who knows, were due one tho haha


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Loughc wrote: »
    We have a bad summer and mild winter pretty much every year. Haha.

    Not this year...every month since last November has had below average temperatures.

    Let's hope the trend lasts another 6 months!


  • Registered Users Posts: 16 Smkopite


    Check out Chorley weather.com very interesting read


  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭Cornilius


    Really looking forward to this winter and hoping for something special as I have been recently transferred to Aberdeen. Knowing my luck aberdeen will be bone dry while Ireland gets its biggest snowfall.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Im only interested in easterly based snowfalls and unfortunately I think this may not be the year for us either.

    Most sources are saying it's going to be a very active atlantic this winter so my feeling is that Mayo, Leitrim, Donegal and most of Northern Ireland will see the bulk of any snow that's going. I hope im wrong it's been 5 years since the snow trains off the Irish sea, we are certainly due them again soon.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Sky news are saying El Nino gives us colder and drier winters in northwest Europe and we are more likely to have a 2010 type winter, then went straight to the chief scientist of the UK met office, who didn't seem to have a problem with what Sky news had said.


This discussion has been closed.
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