Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

US Presidential Election 2020

1…300301302303304306»

Comments

  • #9152
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 10,981 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    droidus wrote: »
    Like (I'm sure) many people here Ive been following the polls and analysis for months and for quite some time it looked like we would have a strong Biden performance and a probable victory.

    In the last week or two I think the uncertainty levels have ratcheted up. Unprecedented early voting, coronavirus, slow turnout of certain demographics in key areas, the possibility violence and civil unrest and mail in ballot suppression, some indicators of improved trump support in some places, more evidence of shy voters.

    It could just be the dejavu from 2016, or last minute nerves and the fact that there's so much riding on this, but I honestly can't think of another election in my lifetime when the outcome was so uncertain and also so consequential.

    It seems entirely possible that Trump could somehow squeeze a victory, or at least make it tight enough to delay and let SCOTUS do the rest. Conversely it seems like a Biden landslide is within grasp. Most of my friends in the US are nervous wrecks at this stage.

    I think the latter is causing you to feel the former. Which would you feel more nervous about, a 50% change of stubbing your toe or a 9% chance of getting shot in the head?

    Trump can win but nearly everything is pointing it to it being incredibly unlikely. You don't even have to go back far to see much more uncertain races, in 2012 Obama was only up by 0.7% in polling average in the final polls.

    It is actually a very positive thing how tense people are about this race despite the polls, the alternative is what happened in 2016 when people didn't bother to vote or even voted 3rd party.


  • #9153
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,489 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    And when you look at the Election Project website, the party figures only give Dems a 100k lead over the GOP - of course, more of the 2m Independents will probably lean Democrat, but touch-and-go as to whether that's enough of a buffer against on-the-day votes.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

    But again, that's party registration. Here's a good read on why that's not a particularly useful metric:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-surge-in-republican-voter-registration-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/

    Party registration comes from the voter registration files in each state. This means that people 'register' for a party when they fill out their voter registration forms. People are likely to do this only when they move house, or if they're highly engaged and want to vote in their respective parties primaries.

    This makes party registration a very laggy indicator — how many people move house all that often once they're out of the rental years? People can change their party registration by sending in a new voter registration form, but how many will do that?

    I think I saw once that the average party registration stat is about 12 years out of date.

    So there's all that.

    Then there's the fact that Republican party members will vote for Biden, and Democratic party members will vote for Trump. I can't find the Twitter link, but there was a tweet posted a week ago or so which showed that a good bit more Rs are breaking for Biden than the other way around.


  • #9154
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Foxtrol wrote: »
    I think the latter is causing you to feel the former. Which would you feel more nervous about, a 50% change of stubbing your toe or a 9% chance of getting shot in the head?

    Trump can win but nearly everything is pointing it to it being incredibly unlikely. You don't even have to go back far to see much more uncertain races, in 2012 Obama was only up by 0.7% in polling average in the final polls.

    It is actually a very positive thing how tense people are about this race despite the polls, the alternative is what happened in 2016 when people didn't bother to vote or even voted 3rd party.

    Yeah, I agree, but like most of us I try my best to make sense of the seeming infinitude of data, opinion and analysis swirling around and come to a judgement based on that, but the contra position is that some (or all) of this is bunk, or at least that important aspects of the true picture are hidden, which undercuts the foundation of any conclusion you can come to.

    It doesn't help that we are dealing with such a fundamentally irrational and volatile environment where it seems almost anything is possible. Im still quite hopeful - on paper it all looks pretty good for Biden, but...


  • #9155
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Its partly because Trump himself is such an anomaly - not in policies per se, but in his personal style and norm-breaking behaviour. We all know that politics isn't exactly a rational sphere but he's the embodiment of that, the grendel of the irrational impulse in the American psyche.


  • #9156
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

    There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

    I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

    Yeah, I gotta say, my experience of news networks is that they are pretty circumspect about calling the result. They kind of get in more than enough information before they do so. I don’t even know if Fox will call it prematurely because if they are wrong, they’ll be left embarrassed.


  • Advertisement
  • #9157
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,865 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I would say OANN will be the only ones to call it. The people calling it for Fox won't be the likes of Tucker, they will be biased but realistic.


  • #9158
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Last time the guy who makes the call on Fox was very sensible. If the polls are accurate and Biden wins a bunch of swing states by 8% then it'll be clear and obvious on the night and they'll call it. I said it before, the media need to show some nerve and report on clear and obvious truths.


  • #9159
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,124 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Christy42 wrote: »
    I would say OANN will be the only ones to call it. The people calling it for Fox won't be the likes of Tucker, they will be biased but realistic.

    Tucker, though his own legal defence, would come under the fox entertainment rather than the fox news banner


  • #9160
    UpBack1234
    Registered Users Posts: 107 ✭✭UpBack1234


    duploelabs wrote: »
    Tucker, though his own legal defence, would come under the fox entertainment rather than the fox news banner

    The ole 'performance art' defence :D


  • #9161
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,124 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    UpBack1234 wrote: »
    The ole 'performance art' defence :D

    https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-karen-mcdougal-case-tucker-carlson-2020-9?r=US&IR=T
    A federal judge on Thursday dismissed a lawsuit against Fox News after lawyers for the network argued that no "reasonable viewer" would take the network's primetime star Tucker Carlson seriously.


  • Advertisement
  • #9162
    hirondelle
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭hirondelle


    duploelabs wrote: »
    https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-karen-mcdougal-case-tucker-carlson-2020-9?r=US&IR=T

    Tucker Carlson is essentially the court jester.


  • #9163
    partyguinness
    Registered Users Posts: 8,204 ✭✭✭partyguinness


    Roanmore wrote: »
    I remember the US election in 2000, Bush always came across as electable especially when he had his father's organisation around him.
    Add in the last 2 years of the Clinton term which was mainly about Monica Lewinsky and only a fool would have written him off.

    The bias in Ireland was not so much against the man himself but the hawks behind him who pushed the war agenda.


    One big difference is that Gore and Bush were newbies in that there was no incumbent running for reelection.

    Seeing that 9/11 happened 8 months into his presidency we will never know what Bush would have been like if 9/11 had not happened.


  • #9164
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    partyguinness wrote: »
    One big difference is that Gore and Bush were newbies in that there was no incumbent running for reelection.

    Seeing that 9/11 happened 8 months into his presidency we will never know what Bush would have been like if 9/11 had not happened.

    Well, as President, he was waaay less crooked than Trump. So he's got that going for him. However, he was another 'useful idiot' in that he was surrounded.by hawks and neo-cons who committed huge atrocities (waaay more grevious than Trump's IMO) in relation to Iraq and the Middle East. When history is written, he will be known as a reasonably decent human being who presided over a competent but horrible administration. Trump, on the other hand, will be known as an execrable human being who presided over an incompetent administration that was horrible in its corruption, but waaay more benign in terms of war-mongering abroad. Neither will come out smelling of roses, but if I was to be asked to pick one to sit and have a meal with, I'd take W every time.


  • #9165
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Scenes coming out of the US show businesses boarded up in advance of the election amidst fears of violent post-election turmoil. Jesus, how quickly a so-called 'Great Democracy' has been brought to its knees!


  • #9166
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,622 ✭✭✭eire4


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    Scenes coming out of the US show businesses boarded up in advance of the election amidst fears of violent post-election turmoil. Jesus, how quickly a so-called 'Great Democracy' has been brought to its knees!

    The US may be many things but a great democracy that is laughable. It has been IMHO at best an oligarchy for a while now. But it does not surprise me at all this is happening. I think violence is a certainty in the coming days more to my mind the question is how bad will it be not if. The truly scary part is the new president does not get into office until the third week of January so the amount of damage the current president can do between now and then is pretty scary and I have no doubt he will be burning the house down so to speak over the next couple of months as well as probably doing whatever he can to cover up the myriad crimes he has been engaging in the past 4 years IMHO.

    Remember the days when the US would be sending observers to various countries to make sure elections were free and fair. Should be the other way around now.


  • #9167
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    Scenes coming out of the US show businesses boarded up in advance of the election amidst fears of violent post-election turmoil. Jesus, how quickly a so-called 'Great Democracy' has been brought to its knees!

    The evidence of the US being brought to its knees, is not so much in the businesses being cautious, but in the White House preparing in the same manner with an impenetrable fence being placed around it.


  • #9168
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,407 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I think tomorrow’s election will be on the bush vs gore 2000 scale but where is the question. I hope if for no other reason that it might lessen the ****e that trump will pull(it’s happening anyway) that Biden flips a red state so that it might focus the minds of some in the GOP and hopefully there is a bit of momentum towards Biden and the dems.


  • #9169
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1323324805060460547

    No undecideds, and minimal floating voters.


  • #9170
    CorkRed93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,421 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1323324805060460547

    No undecideds, and minimal floating voters.

    Trumps throw **** at Biden like we did with HRC campaign went well then.


  • #9171
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,514 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1323324805060460547

    No undecideds, and minimal floating voters.

    https://twitter.com/WClev1075/status/1323325072019464193?s=20

    No October surprise effect on undecided voters.

    I'd say most Americans knew if they would be voting against Trump by the conclusion of the impeachment.


  • Advertisement
  • #9172
    blackcard
    Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Some concerning polls for Biden on the Real Clear Politics Site. 2 showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, one showing Trump ahead nationally. I know some are from Rasmussen who normally favour Republicans but I think that they were accurate enough in 2016

    General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 49, Trump 46, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +3
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Susquehanna* Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
    Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
    Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 49, Biden 45 Trump +4


  • #9173
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,944 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    blackcard wrote: »
    Some concerning polls for Biden on the Real Clear Politics Site. 2 showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, one showing Trump ahead nationally. I know some are from Rasmussen who normally favour Republicans but I think that they were accurate enough in 2016

    General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 49, Trump 46, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +3
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Susquehanna* Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
    Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
    Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 49, Biden 45 Trump +4

    The Rasmussen poll is a daily poll - It's up and down like crazy every day , it had Biden up by 3 on Friday.

    Susquehanna and Trafalgar are both seriously biased - The Head of Trafalgar was on Hannity last night to discuss his PA poll saying that the only way Biden wins is through massive election fraud.

    Also - The * beside the poll means that it was paid for by the campaigns so they aren't really independent. The Terms of the polling will have been agreed with the Campaigns.


  • #9174
    Canice Picklington
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    It seems to me that Trafalgar are a front for a rigged election. If you're going to rig an election, a prerequisite is having bought and paid for "polling" companies predicting the rigged result.


  • #9175
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,944 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub




    ##Mod Note##

    This thread is getting quite close to the 10k post limit.

    We're going to need the head-room over the next few days so moving to a fresh thread a little early in preparation.

    New Thread is located here


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement