Boards weather forecast contest for January 2021

sdanseo · 02-01-2021 2:19am

Better late than never!

sdanseo ____________ 4.1_____10.9____ -7.0______ 92______ 117____ 2cm 17th

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2021 3:08am

Table of forecasts for January 2021

Something new for these tables, the actual time of posting when later than 0300h 1st is shown, from that I can calculate your late penalty which will show up in this table later. Any further entries will be edited in ... the late comers so far are all on the first of January. As noted in the contest announcement post, late penalties will be somewhat more lenient than usual because of my rather late posting of the thread (although it doesn't seem to have had much of an effect). Welcome back to all, or welcome in for one or two new entrants.

Current late penalties (-2 to 1500h, -3 to 1900h, -4 to 2300h, now into -5 to 0300h, -6 to 0700h 2nd, -7 to 1100h 2nd, -8 to 1500h 2nd, adding 1 for each hour later than that).

FORECASTER _ pen, late ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max snow Casement, date

SleetAndSnow _______________5.4 _ 11.0 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 085 _____ 3.0 cm __ 11th

200motels __________________5.3 _ 10.5 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 089 _____ 2.0 cm __ 10th

Mr Skinner__________________5.2 _ 13.3 _ -6.5 _ 085 _ 111 _____ 5.0 cm __ 21st

_____ NormaL ______________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 1.0 cm __ (late)

Funsterdelux __ -3 _ 1818h ___ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 5.0 cm __ 15th

DOCARCH __________________4.9 _ 13.1 _ -5.2 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 7.0 cm __ 13th

Tae laidir __________________ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _____ 5.0 cm ___ 9th

Dasa29 ____________________4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _____30.0 cm __ 24th

Appledrop __________________4.5 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 9th

pauldry ____________________4.5 _ 12.8 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 3.0 cm __ 10th

Kindred Spirit _______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 088 _____ 6.0 cm ___ 6th

WesternStorm ______________ 4.5 _ 10.5 _ -6.0 _ 086 _ 107 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Dacogawa _________________ 4.4 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 120 _ 096 _____12.0 cm __ 19th

Artane2002 ________________ 4.3 _ 13.6 _ -6.7 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 3.0 cm __ 22nd

Gonzo _____________________4.3 _ 13.3 _ -7.8 _ 088 _ 095 _____ 2.0 cm __ 11th

Mrstonewall ________________ 4.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.6 _ 077 _ 135 _____ 3.0 cm __ 19th

_____ Con Sensus ___________4.3 _ 12.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 5.0 cm __ 17th

john mac __________________ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 097 _ 105 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Eon1208 ___________________4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 088 _ 107 _____ 4.0 cm __ 14th

sdanseo ____ -5 __ 0119h 2 __ 4.1 _ 10.9 _ -7.0 _ 092 _ 117 _____ 2.0 cm __ 17th

Adam240610_-7 __ 1041h 2 __ 4.0 _ 12.7 _ -7.7 _ 080 _ 125 _____15.2 cm __ 15th

sryanbruen _________________3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _____ 4.0 cm __ 21st

Jpmarn _____ -2 __ 1002h ____3.9 _ 12.1 _ -7.8 _ 070 _ 130 _____ 2.0 cm __ 20th

waterways ___-2 __ 0954h ___ 3.8 _ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 075 _ 115 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 5th

Sunflower3 _________________3.5 _ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 6.0 cm __ 28th

Bazlers ____________________3.3 __ 9.8 _-14.6_ 085 _ 105 _____ 37.0 cm __ 28th

Bsal ______________________ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _____10.0 cm __ 22nd

CirrusBusiness ______________3.1 __ 9.9 _-11.2_ 120 _ 075 _____ 28.0 cm __ 24th

M.T. Cranium _______________2.9 _ 13.5 _-14.5_ 090 _ 120 _____ 20.5 cm __ 18th

Joe Public _____ -2 _ 0942 ____2.5 _ 11.9 _ -8.9 _ 088 _ 130 _____ 20.0 cm __ 13th

Danno ____________________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _-12.4_ 135 _ 065 _____ 20.0 cm __ 25th

BLIZZARD7 ______ __________1.1 _ 10.3 _-17.8_ 085 _ 135 _____ 40.0 cm __ 17th
__________________________________________

Have worked out Con Sensus, interesting this month that some of Con's picks are also "mode" picks meaning the most popular specific numbers, certainly PRC and SUN worked out that way, and IMT has a few straddling the median as well. The snowfall median is 5.0 cm but two have opted for no snow, the consensus date is the median of 28 forecasts and not surprisingly is beyond the range of the models (as of forecast time), indicating that many saw a potential for some snow early but thought it might improve later. Since the amount is a median amount, the skew means that the mean is a bit higher, it works out to 13 cm (closer to 12 if you count the two zero entries). The max snowfall date choices are as follows (asterisks mean additional picks):

5 6 9* 10* 11* 13* 14 15* 17* 18 19* 20 21* 22* 24* 25 28* (no*)

John mac · 02-01-2021 10:33am

-4° overnight in Athenry and Gurteen

adam240610 · 02-01-2021 11:41am

Adam240610 4.0__12.7__-7.7__80__125__15.2cm__15th

Sorry for late entry completely forgot

appledrop · 03-01-2021 9:20am

Looks like it got down to-5 this morning at Athenry and Mt Dillon.

sryanbruen · 03-01-2021 2:10pm

-5.9C at Mt Dillon.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1345718689753161730?s=20

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2021 11:30pm

Have added Con Sensus to the table of forecasts as well as Adam240610, we have 30 forecasts, 28 calling for at least some measurable snow at Casement. The median forecast is 5.0 cm but the mean is closer to 13 cm due to several larger forecasts (skew distribution). Dates are scattered rather randomly through the month but the tendency is for the heavier forecasts to have the later dates (which makes sense given that the models were showing limited chances in the first ten days which conforms to those lower picks in the first third).

appledrop · 06-01-2021 11:38pm

Markree Castle recorded -6. 3 last night according to Met Eireann

I wonder if it will be even colder tonight?

Mullingar is already at -4 at 10pm.

appledrop · 07-01-2021 9:26am

Official figure is -6.4 at Markree yesterday.

The snow has arrived here at Dublin airport. Hope it did aswell at Casement!

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2021 8:53pm

I will have the usual first week report tomorrow, but the IMT to the 6th was only 1.2 C, and today is not going to move that much.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2021 3:36pm

After the first week ...

IMT 1.0, 4.3 below normal for the interval.

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -6.3

PRC 22% of normal.

SUN about 160% (Valentia missing from report today)

so far just traces of snow at Casement. 7th would be "max date" for most conspicuous trace, however, "no snow" will not lose points for trace amount dates, only if there was a measurable amount. (bonus will be scored 7/10 for amount and 3/10 for date, no snow = 10/10 if trace holds up).

appledrop · 09-01-2021 9:20am

-8 at Casement & Mullingar at 8am. Wow.

It will be interesting to see official stats.

DOCARCH · 09-01-2021 11:54am

Overnight low of -8.2c at Dunsany and Mullingar.

M.T. Cranium · 10-01-2021 6:11pm

Worth noting that the IMT sits at 0.6 C after nine days, and Casement is at 0.0.

It will obviously rise to some extent over the next week, possibly to around 2.5 or 3.0, but latest model runs suggest it may come back down again after that. So we can't be sure this is the low point for the month.

Tae laidir · 10-01-2021 7:35pm

Thanks for the interesting update, MT. Casement within my 5km limit.
I don't think there are any errors with readings or calculations!

appledrop · 13-01-2021 1:02pm

I think we will finally get a max value today.

Finner at 12 degrees at moment so we will see official data is when all complied tomorrow.

Given how cold it has been all month, todays max value might hold out for rest of the month.

pauldry · 13-01-2021 2:45pm

Hopefully it does but also hopefully that -8.2c is beaten too for snow lovers!

dacogawa · 13-01-2021 6:10pm

pauldry wrote: »

Hopefully it does but also hopefully that -8.2c is beaten too for snow lovers!

I'm hoping it doesn't get beaten! We could have loads of snow between there and 0c, -8.2c seem fine to me. #vestedinterest

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2021 10:51pm

After 12 days the IMT had recovered to 1.9 C and I estimate that after today it will sit around 2.3 C. Precip is probably up near normal now, or at least 75%, although it has remained dry in the south (Cork only 1 mm so far). Update coming on Friday anyway. Just for the record, 11.8 at Roches Point on 12th although today likely a bit milder in some places.

appledrop · 14-01-2021 9:58am

New max 12.8 Oak Park on 13th.

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2021 1:55pm

After two weeks ...

IMT is 2.8 C. The second week average was 4.5, still 0.7 below normal.

MAX is now 12.8 C

MIN is -8.2

PRC at 56% of normal with the second week average at 90% of normal (most stations above, Cork only 5%).

SUN at 154% of normal with the second week at 132% (791/600). For the first week, I was able to adjust the estimate as Valentia was then missing data, I reported it was about 160% and have adjusted that to 176% as Valentia had even more sunshine than I had estimated from Shannon and Cork values.

January normally averages about 2 hrs a day so this one is running closer to 3 hrs daily. Valentia averaged over 4.1 hours a day in the first week and Cork led the way this past week at 3.5 hours a day. (max possible 7 to 8 depending on instrument exposure)

No change in max snow at Casement, using trace 6th to validate that. Many hope for more (faint chances on model runs, at least it looks cold enough for snow at times).

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2021 3:17pm

The IMT has reached 3.7 (19 days), likely a high point for the next week at least, according to 06z GFS it would likely fall to 3.2 by Sunday 24th and then could edge back up to finish around 4.0.

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2021 5:31pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 3.7 with third week average 5.5 which was 0.4 above normal.

MAX remains 12.8

MIN remains --8.2

PRC now 98% of normal with a wetter week at 182% of normal.

SUN has settled back to 120% of normal with a cloudier week at only 63% of normal (377/600).

Apparently there could be a measurement of snow coming up at Casement tomorrow, but so far just traces around the 6th qualify for the bonus question lead.

Artane2002 · 23-01-2021 5:46pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Artane2002____4.3___13.6____-6.7____085____110____3cm____22nd

please let Casement get 3cm tonight!

appledrop · 24-01-2021 12:59am

Artane2002 wrote: »

please let Casement get 3cm tonight!

Well its snowing here beside Dublin airport. Might just end up trace amount like 6th though.

We will know by the morning!

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2021 8:48pm

After four weeks ...

IMT on 3.7 C, the fourth week similar (3.9) which is 1.4 below normal.

MAX now 13.3 (28th Phoenix Park)

MIN remains --8.2

PRC now 102% with the fourth week at 113%.

SUN at 116.5% of normal after the fourth week at 106% (635/600).

Still no measurable snow at Casement, two more chances apparently.

__ Feb contest will open soon, just thinking about the bonus question __

appledrop · 29-01-2021 9:02pm

Its a pity we didn't pick Dublin Airport rather than Casement as we definitely got more than trace here.

North County Dublin was place to be last weekend for the snow!

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2021 1:31pm

IMT has finished on 3.9.

PRC appears to be in the 105-110 range (will check it tomorrow on MS).

SUN probably ended up around normal as last three days quite cloudy.

Scoring can wait for the final numbers. See week four summary above for other details.

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2021 11:34am

Scoring for January 2021

(edit) These scores are now confirmed based on these values for Jan 2021 ...

IMT _ 3.9 __ MAX _ 13.3 ___ MIN -8.2 ___ PRC 115 ___ SUN 105

The bonus will be scored on the basis of zero lying snow at Casement, dates will be reduced to 1/10 bonus for those closest to two trace amounts noted, with scores for all non-zero forecasts placed in the range of 0 to 8 (with the potential to improve by 1). The zero sig-snow forecasts will of course score 10/10.

FORECASTER _______________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS___TOTALS

Gonzo ____________________ 21 _ 20 _ 18*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 81

Dacogawa _________________ 20 _ 16 _ 19*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 03 _____ 79

Sunflower3 ________________ 21 _ 12 _ 20*_ 07 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 76

sryanbruen ________________ 25 _ 18 _ 11*_ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 75

Artane2002 ________________ 21 _ 17 _ 07*_ 05 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 67

Tae laidir __________________ 18 _ 18 _ 02*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 67

Mrstonewall ________________ 21 _ 15 _ 16*_ 02 _ 04 ___ 07 _____ 65

_____ Con Sensus ___________21 _ 12 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 65

Jpmarn _____ -2 __ 1002h ____25 _ 08 _ 18*_ 00 _ 05 ___ 09__65-2=63

john mac __________________ 21 _ 11 _ 01*_ 09 _ 10 ___ 10 _____ 62

Funsterdelux __ -3 _ 1818h ____14 _ 12 _ 15*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 06__62-3=59

_____ NormaL ______________ 13 _ 08 _ 10*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 59

Mr Skinner__________________12 _ 20 _ 05*_ 05 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 58

Adam240610_-7 __ 1041h 2 __ 24 _ 14 _ 17*_ 03 _ 06 ___ 01__65-7=58

pauldry ____________________19 _ 15 _ 01*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 58

Kindred Spirit _______________19 _ 07 _ 05*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 58

Appledrop __________________19 _ 16 _ 02*_ 03 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 56

waterways ___-2 __ 0954h ____24 _ 00 _ 14*_ 02 _ 08 ___ 09__57-2=55

DOCARCH __________________15 _ 18 _ 01*_ 07 _ 09 ___ 04 _____ 54

Eon1208 ___________________21 _ 03 _ 06*_ 06 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 53

sdanseo ____ -5 __ 0119h 2 __ 23 _ 00 _ 10*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 08 __56-5=51

Dasa29 ____________________18 _ 02 _ 05*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 01 _____ 48

M.T. Cranium _______________ 15 _ 18 _ 00 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 00 _____ 47

WesternStorm ______________ 19 _ 00 _ 01*_ 05 _ 10 ___ 10 _____ 45

Bsal ______________________ 18 _ 00 _ 01*_ 07 _ 10 ___ 05 _____ 41

Joe Public _____ -2 _ 0942 ____11 _ 06 _ 15*_ 06 _ 05 ___ 00__43-2=41

Danno ____________________ 13 _ 14 _ 00 _ 08 _ 02 ___ 01 _____ 38

200motels _________________ 11 _ 00 _ 01*_08 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 35

CirrusBusiness ______________17 _ 00 _ 00 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 01 _____ 35

Bazlers ____________________19 _ 00 _ 00 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 00 _____ 34

SleetAndSnow ______________ 10 _ 00 _ 00 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 30

BLIZZARD7 _________________00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 00 _____ 10 (min)

___________________________________________

* slight boost to min scores ... all raw scores increased by 2, -6.2 went from 0 to 2, all -5 to -6.1 got 1, larger errors stayed at zero.

10 (min) is minimum score for contest entry. (lower raw scores go to 10)

=====================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _ pen, late ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max snow Casement, date

SleetAndSnow _______________5.4 _ 11.0 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 085 _____ 3.0 cm __ 11th

200motels __________________5.3 _ 10.5 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 089 _____ 2.0 cm __ 10th

Mr Skinner__________________5.2 _ 13.3 _ -6.5 _ 085 _ 111 _____ 5.0 cm __ 21st

_____ NormaL ______________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 1.0 cm __ (late)

Funsterdelux __ -3 _ 1818h ___ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 5.0 cm __ 15th

DOCARCH __________________4.9 _ 13.1 _ -5.2 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 7.0 cm __ 13th

Tae laidir __________________ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _____ 5.0 cm ___ 9th

Dasa29 ____________________4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _____30.0 cm __ 24th

Appledrop __________________4.5 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 9th

pauldry ____________________4.5 _ 12.8 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 3.0 cm __ 10th

Kindred Spirit _______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 088 _____ 6.0 cm ___ 6th

WesternStorm ______________ 4.5 _ 10.5 _ -6.0 _ 086 _ 107 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Dacogawa _________________ 4.4 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 120 _ 096 _____12.0 cm __ 19th

Artane2002 ________________ 4.3 _ 13.6 _ -6.7 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 3.0 cm __ 22nd

Gonzo _____________________4.3 _ 13.3 _ -7.8 _ 088 _ 095 _____ 2.0 cm __ 11th

Mrstonewall ________________ 4.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.6 _ 077 _ 135 _____ 3.0 cm __ 19th

_____ Con Sensus ___________4.3 _ 12.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 5.0 cm __ 17th

john mac __________________ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 097 _ 105 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Eon1208 ___________________4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 088 _ 107 _____ 4.0 cm __ 14th

sdanseo ____ -5 __ 0119h 2 __ 4.1 _ 10.9 _ -7.0 _ 092 _ 117 _____ 2.0 cm __ 17th

Adam240610_-7 __ 1041h 2 __ 4.0 _ 12.7 _ -7.7 _ 080 _ 125 _____15.2 cm __ 15th

sryanbruen _________________3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _____ 4.0 cm __ 21st

Jpmarn _____ -2 __ 1002h ____3.9 _ 12.1 _ -7.8 _ 070 _ 130 _____ 2.0 cm __ 20th

waterways ___-2 __ 0954h ___ 3.8 _ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 075 _ 115 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 5th

Sunflower3 _________________3.5 _ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 6.0 cm __ 28th

Bazlers ____________________3.3 __ 9.8 _-14.6_ 085 _ 105 _____ 37.0 cm __ 28th

Bsal ______________________ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _____10.0 cm __ 22nd

CirrusBusiness ______________3.1 __ 9.9 _-11.2_ 120 _ 075 _____ 28.0 cm __ 24th

M.T. Cranium _______________2.9 _ 13.5 _-14.5_ 090 _ 120 _____ 20.5 cm __ 18th

Danno ____________________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _-12.4_ 135 _ 065 _____ 20.0 cm __ 25th

Joe Public _____ -2 _ 0942 ____2.5 _ 11.9 _ -8.9 _ 088 _ 130 _____ 20.0 cm __ 13th

BLIZZARD7 ______ __________1.1 _ 10.3 _-17.8_ 085 _ 135 _____ 40.0 cm __ 17th
__________________________________________
__________________________________________

Boards weather forecast contest for January 2021

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