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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Options
    #1442
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The difference is the mjo, which is conducive to a high latitude block, is now moving into a more favourable phase. It may amount to nothing, but given the ec 46 and the UK Met Office are suggesting this possibility too, we are in with a chance.

    And our own Met Eireann!


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    #1443
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Reversal wrote: »
    And our own Met Eireann!

    Yes. Their monthly forecast seems to based on the EC46.


  • Options
    #1444
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Well tonights ECM day 9 couldn't be more different than last nights day 10
    Chalk and cheese
    Let me parse this chart for you in one word
    Wintry

    ECH1-216.gif.31ae8a8d7ea7743c20567350e4ff8cc0.gif


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    #1445
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It looks like the Pacific high and the displaced Azores might be ready to meet up and shred/split the vortex. It would be interesting to see the day 11 or 12 chart if there was one. Still no doubt it will probably look different in the morning


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    #1446
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,506 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Wouldnt be surprised to see the models flip in the next 7-10 days to show a decent cold spell in a semi reliable time frame.
    My money is still on the first week of feb.

    Said this last monday. Interesting to see what the models show over the coming days. Things looking up atm imo for a possible cold spell first week of feb ......


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    #1447
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Said this last monday. Interesting to see what the models show over the coming days. Things looking up atm imo for a possible cold spell first week of feb ......


    The ECM extended range is trying to agree with you for the first half of February. First few days of February may still be mildish but trending colder into the first week of February and including the second week. Could be a fairly strong Greenland high by then on our side of Greenland rather than the Canadian side.

    render-worker-commands-7745797d4-qxxkm-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-5bmhBm.png

    render-worker-commands-7745797d4-qxxkm-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-gzzUUU.png


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    #1448
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    tonights pub run opens the freezer door with a howling northerly with -11 uppers over much of the country into the first week of February. If this verified temperatures would be close to freezing by day and night, especially further inland. Unlike the past couple of northerlies this is not an Atlantic modified effort.

    GFSOPUK18_348_2.png

    GFSOPEU18_348_2.png


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    #1449
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    That would be *chefs kiss*

    Just for fun disclaimer of course at these time ranges.

    anim_isw5.gif


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    #1450
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A northerly just like the ones we use to know and love, yes, please.


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    #1451
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Read the excellent article in this tweet and its reasoning as to why a Greenland Iceland Ridge is the form horse in early February now and the open door for proper cold from the main highway of snow the trans Siberian Scandinavia express:)

    https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1352668258982367233?s=19


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    #1452
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    John.Icy wrote: »
    That would be *chefs kiss*

    Just for fun disclaimer of course at these time ranges.

    anim_isw5.gif

    This seems similar to what tonights ECM might have shown, if it went beyond 240 hours. Let's just hope we can start to count down these charts. If it's going to happen, we should see little wavering from here - well only in what direction the cold comes from, perhaps.


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    #1453
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    nacho libre wrote: »
    If it's going to happen, we should see little wavering from here - well only in what direction the cold comes from, perhaps.

    I would like to see this upgrade over next few days and build on the momentum, get that cold in quick from the north and then tilt the winds into the north-east. Would like to think this will be more than a 2 or 3 day shot of cold with decent instability nationwide.


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    #1454
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Gonzo wrote: »
    tonights pub run opens the freezer door with a howling northerly with -11 uppers over much of the country into the first week of February. If this verified temperatures would be close to freezing by day and night, especially further inland. Unlike the past couple of northerlies this is not an Atlantic modified effort.

    I would wager that temperatures would be quite lower than freezing by day and south of -10c in places by night - if - everything predicted by that model *between* now and then comes to pass.

    Ground temperatures across the most of Ireland are very low right now. An already cold soil has nothing left to do but freeze over in the coming week. Throw a couple more cold clear nights over that and you're getting into extremely low temperature territory.

    January 8th-9th gave us a glimpse of that.


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    #1455
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS ensembles have finished the pub door is shut till the morning. A classic staircase down into the freezer with several members between -10 and -15 uppers. If this verifies this could well be the real deal.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2021-01-22&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Now more than ever we need tomorrow's charts to continue this trend and not fall apart.


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    #1456
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    In the medium outlook the Atlantic appears to fire up, the evolution to a very cold setup after that looks implausible, experience would dictate that Atlantic dominance would normally last for at least 3 or 4 weeks


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    #1457
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    and to finish off, a few selections from tonight's run, will we see anything like these tomorrow in the models.

    GFSP18EU18_330_2.png

    GFSP10EU18_318_2.png

    GFSP11EU18_312_2.png

    GFSP12EU18_360_2.png


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    #1458
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    typhoony wrote: »
    In the medium outlook the Atlantic appears to fire up, the evolution to a very cold setup after that looks implausible, experience would dictate that Atlantic dominance would normally last for at least 3 or 4 weeks

    Normally thats the case, however the Atlantic has never really truly gone quiet this winter, it has been there in some shape of form since the start of winter. We've had some cold weather since Christmas but the Atlantic air has been mixed within throughout. If GFS is correct this mild spell from Tuesday may only last 4 or 5 days and then we begin to shut off the Atlantic. Tomorrow will be important to see does the GFS stick to this through all 4 runs and that the other models are heading in a similar direction.


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    #1459
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    typhoony wrote: »
    In the medium outlook the Atlantic appears to fire up, the evolution to a very cold setup after that looks implausible, experience would dictate that Atlantic dominance would normally last for at least 3 or 4 weeks

    You could be right, but something to consider: if we were able to view model output from yesteryear, prior to some historic cold spells, we likely would have thought a cold outbreak was implausible to. Also the evolution to a cold spell is not that far-fetched if we consider the background signals required for a cold spell are more in our favour as we go into to February. Of course there is no guarantee.... but a cold spell is not implausible all things considered. As Gonzo said todays output will give us a good idea of where we are headed.


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    #1460
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Just a quick skim through FI this morning. Plenty of interest.

    The ECM starts building a wedge of heights in the vicinity of Iceland after day 6, giving an easterly surface flow by day 8/9.

    540445.png

    Some very cold air departing Scandinavia across the North Sea.

    540446.png

    The GFS fails with that first wedge in the day 7-10 range. However the second bout of amplification goes on the produce a classic Scandi high.

    540447.png

    GEFS have been shortening the mild Atlantic spell run by run. This morning in no different, and a nice set afterwords. Cold/ V cold with plenty of flow between North and East looking at the upper wind plots.

    540448.gif


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    #1461
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Well isn't that just beautiful

    gfs-0-384.png


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    #1462
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    There's a point at which shortening next week's spell of mild weather might also weaken the cold airmass available to come this way if a Scandi High is the evolution.


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    #1463
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Twitter's character limit really dilutes explanations but I just posted this
    2nd ECM to signal very cold first week of February

    https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1352933305096806400?s=19


  • Options
    #1464
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,444 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    Well isn't that just beautiful

    gfs-0-384.png

    Meh, it's cold but nothing special if it's deep cold you're looking for.


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    #1465
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Gonzo wrote: »
    tonights pub run opens the freezer door with a howling northerly with -11 uppers over much of the country into the first week of February. If this verified temperatures would be close to freezing by day and night, especially further inland. Unlike the past couple of northerlies this is not an Atlantic modified effort.

    GFSOPUK18_348_2.png

    GFSOPEU18_348_2.png

    The current northerly we are in is not moderated.


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    #1466
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Meh, it's cold but nothing special if it's deep cold you're looking for.

    A classic scandi high with an easterly sourced all the way from Siberia. It would be cold and it would be snowing, which is more than enough for me.


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    #1467
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The current northerly we are in is not relatively less moderated.

    Any Northerly is moderated once its travelling over ocean
    I think the 2 words you missed is relatively less so I've changed that for you
    Relatively less versus others you've experienced this winter as you've had some snow up there


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    #1468
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The current northerly we are in is not moderated.

    Yes it is and severely so. Not that I would class this as even being a northerly by any stretch.

    New Moon



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    #1469
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    A classic scandi high with an easterly sourced all the way from Siberia. It would be cold and it would be snowing, which is more than enough for me.

    It mightnt be snowing on that though
    I had a look at the 850s all across Europe on it including Ireland and they were only -5 to -7c
    Dew points were pathetic at -1c or -2c which would be washed out on the Irish sea
    Precip would be weak in those 850s
    Air temps of 3's 4's and 5's in Europe so we might get 5 to7c here
    Very Meh as kermie said

    No cold for those synoptic

    All probably immaterial anyway given how deep FI it is


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    #1470
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Yes it is and severely so. Not that I would class this as even being a northerly by any stretch.

    With freezing levels of 300 metres in the ocean. I am not sure how that is moderated.

    We are not going to get freezing levels to the surface in the ocean here.


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    #1471
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    With freezing levels of 300 metres in the ocean. I am not sure how that is moderated.

    We are not going to get freezing levels to the surface in the ocean here.

    The air mass over us right now is returning polar maritime, the very same sort that we suffered during the early part of the month. I know my northerlies, and this is certainly not one of them.

    New Moon



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