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01-01-2020, 14:16   #16
OwlsZat
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Originally Posted by hmmm View Post
Builders will stop building new houses if property prices fall, and supply will fall in the new-build market.
This point is BS. How exactly are the builders going to make an income if they don't build? Lots of builders also have staff. The vast percentage will keep building with less margin to keep people in jobs and keep the finances ticking over. In practical terms they can't really stop!
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01-01-2020, 20:13   #17
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Originally Posted by OwlsZat View Post
This point is BS. How exactly are the builders going to make an income if they don't build? Lots of builders also have staff. The vast percentage will keep building with less margin to keep people in jobs and keep the finances ticking over. In practical terms they can't really stop!
Well, it can, and this exactly what happen on the last property price crash. Staff was laid off, residential construction output fall from 80K to 8K anually.
But with such a high lack of residential property, and low construction output, I can't imagine property price falling more than 10% anytime soon.
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01-01-2020, 20:26   #18
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Well, it can, and this exactly what happen on the last property price crash. Staff was laid off, residential construction output fall from 80K to 8K anually.
But with such a high lack of residential property, and low construction output, I can't imagine property price falling more than 10% anytime soon.
Looking at what's available, I agree with this.

I don't think it'll be a shock 10% fall either. Every parish in this country has it's own supply and demand equation too so it all depends where you're looking.
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01-01-2020, 20:31   #19
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Predictions for 2020 is a slow decline of a few %..... I can't see a massive drop happening (as much as we would love it to happen) but based on the viewings we have been too over the past 6 months, there have been a massive drop off in the numbers attending viewings, particularly for second hand homes.

In my own circle of friends who are now all looking to buy properties, they have no interest in a second hand home with any work required. Turn key appears to be king at the moment, with new builds obviously capitalizing on this.
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01-01-2020, 22:18   #20
OwlsZat
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Originally Posted by Marius34 View Post
Well, it can, and this exactly what happen on the last property price crash. Staff was laid off, residential construction output fall from 80K to 8K anually.
But with such a high lack of residential property, and low construction output, I can't imagine property price falling more than 10% anytime soon.
A property price crash isn't falling prices, it's a crash. I don't think anyone sees another property price crash coming again so soon. This time the financial footings are more solid.
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01-01-2020, 22:33   #21
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A property price crash isn't falling prices, it's a crash. I don't think anyone sees another property price crash coming again so soon. This time the financial footings are more solid.
They aren't necissarily solid. Our entire economy hinges on FDI which is at risk once the OECD decide which way to go with global tax policy alignment. If our economy doesn't diversify then there's a very sever risk of a massive housing crash (amongst every other type of crash), which will be far larger and far more permanent than before.

In the medium term there's quite a large chance house prices will decline massively.
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01-01-2020, 22:36   #22
Padre_Pio
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They aren't necissarily solid. Our entire economy hinges on FDI which is at risk once the OECD decide which way to go with global tax policy alignment. If our economy doesn't diversify then there's a very sever risk of a massive housing crash (amongst every other type of crash), which will be far larger and far more permanent than before.

In the medium term there's quite a large chance house prices will decline massively.
There's absolutely no guarantee that will ever happen, and if it does, it'll take a decade to implement.
The EU can't implement a universal corporate tax regime given the economic disparity between member states.
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01-01-2020, 23:10   #23
Sheeps
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There's absolutely no guarantee that will ever happen, and if it does, it'll take a decade to implement.
The EU can't implement a universal corporate tax regime given the economic disparity between member states.
I never said a universal corporate tax regime, I said global tax alignment. I also never said the EU, I said the OECD.
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02-01-2020, 00:22   #24
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Originally Posted by OwlsZat View Post
A property price crash isn't falling prices, it's a crash. I don't think anyone sees another property price crash coming again so soon. This time the financial footings are more solid.
Yes everything is solid, worldwide debt is nothing to worry about.
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02-01-2020, 07:12   #25
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In my own circle of friends who are now all looking to buy properties, they have no interest in a second hand home with any work required. Turn key appears to be king at the moment, with new builds obviously capitalizing on this.
This is precisely why prices are falling.
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
People are increasingly not investing in improvements in secondhand properties- as the investment is not reflected in a commensurate increase in asking price.

So- the market is being dragged down- by secondhand units- because no-one is happy to make the investment to bring the units that are hitting the market up to modern specs.

The fall in prices could be arrested if some changes were made to, for example, the rules governing the grant for first time buyers allowing them avail of the government largess on secondhand units.

Everyone wants the new units- while there is a dearth of people chasing the secondhand units- which are being sold in increasingly shabby and dilapidated states.
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02-01-2020, 08:56   #26
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That's not news. The scheme becomes impossible to do shortly so they'd have to end it

Some correction to our GNP figures from that sort of distortion that isn't bringing tax revenue is welcome anyway
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02-01-2020, 09:16   #27
TheSheriff
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This is precisely why prices are falling.
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
People are increasingly not investing in improvements in secondhand properties- as the investment is not reflected in a commensurate increase in asking price.

So- the market is being dragged down- by secondhand units- because no-one is happy to make the investment to bring the units that are hitting the market up to modern specs.

The fall in prices could be arrested if some changes were made to, for example, the rules governing the grant for first time buyers allowing them avail of the government largess on secondhand units.

Everyone wants the new units- while there is a dearth of people chasing the secondhand units- which are being sold in increasingly shabby and dilapidated states.
What I would add however, is that often sellers of second hand dwellings have completely unrealistic prices.

We are primarily viewing second hand dwellings, and if something in turn key / good condition comes up which is priced reasonably it often has offers on Day 1.

There is a raft of property out there which is overpriced e.g. recently viewing a house in Leixslip for 400k, it needed a good 50k worth of work to it. Offered 380k which was immediately rejected. House is on the market a few months.

If you go walk five minutes up the road there were new builds available starting at 430k, turn key etc.

People need to be realistic with asking prices also for second hand dwellings and factor the cost of a revamp into the price - this is very rarely considered.
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02-01-2020, 09:28   #28
The_Conductor
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People need to be realistic with asking prices also for second hand dwellings and factor the cost of a revamp into the price - this is very rarely considered.
Asking prices are, more often than not, fanned by local estate agents- who seem impervious to reality on the ground- and intent on fanning the flames of unreasonable/unrealistic expectations with their initial appraisals (in the expectation that once they have the property on their books, they can beat sense into the sellers- despite the fact that it was they who gave them unreasonable expectations to begin with).

Sellers have copped that spending 50k on doing up a property- does not add 50k to the price- and are realistically foregoing this step of the process. Increasingly- a lick of paint is as far as it goes.

The reason prices are falling- is the people who actually want to shift property- are pricing it to shift- which is dragging the market down (cognisant of the fact that there is 5 times more secondhand property on the open market- than new units).

This reality disconnect- is falling- people are copping that prices are artificially inflated- and if/when they eventually do bite the bullet- increasingly, they are accepting more realistic offers from prospective purchasers.

That said- the state of a considerable amount of the secondhand property on the market is atrocious. Its mind boggling the state of some of the units that are being offloaded- increasingly by BTL landlords who are getting the hell out of the sector.
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02-01-2020, 10:15   #29
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Originally Posted by The_Conductor View Post
Asking prices are, more often than not, fanned by local estate agents- who seem impervious to reality on the ground- and intent on fanning the flames of unreasonable/unrealistic expectations with their initial appraisals (in the expectation that once they have the property on their books, they can beat sense into the sellers- despite the fact that it was they who gave them unreasonable expectations to begin with).

Sellers have copped that spending 50k on doing up a property- does not add 50k to the price- and are realistically foregoing this step of the process. Increasingly- a lick of paint is as far as it goes.

The reason prices are falling- is the people who actually want to shift property- are pricing it to shift- which is dragging the market down (cognisant of the fact that there is 5 times more secondhand property on the open market- than new units).

This reality disconnect- is falling- people are copping that prices are artificially inflated- and if/when they eventually do bite the bullet- increasingly, they are accepting more realistic offers from prospective purchasers.

That said- the state of a considerable amount of the secondhand property on the market is atrocious. Its mind boggling the state of some of the units that are being offloaded- increasingly by BTL landlords who are getting the hell out of the sector.
Agree with all of this. The last few second hand homes I had viewed were either ex rentals or probate sales. Even then houses were empty for a year or two and in bad state. They were very overpriced. I had put a low offer in (to reflect what I felt the house was worth but still 40k under asking). The response from auctioneer was I am not putting that offer to client as he expects over asking. 5 months later it’s still not sold and still no offers on it. I had followed up to check in on it.

Another one had dropped 30k in asking. It was still 40k more expensive that a neighbours house that was sold early 2019 and in worse condition and smaller as no extension. It wasn’t for us but in the end they had to take another hit of 20k and sold it for same price as neighbours house that had sold a few months previously. Even second when turn key properties are rare to come across.

Actually back to looking at new builds cause whereas I felt 2018 second hand houses could be better value for the gardens which is very important to me, the way they are priced now I think new builds can offer better value for money.

Also recently look at a new build estates. Literally across the road in an older estate (built by same builder so houses are very similar) was a house for sale. 40k over than the most expensive house in the new build estate. You can’t expect the same or more money for a second hand when your competing against new builds.
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02-01-2020, 10:18   #30
lawred2
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Originally Posted by The_Conductor View Post
This is precisely why prices are falling.
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
People are increasingly not investing in improvements in secondhand properties- as the investment is not reflected in a commensurate increase in asking price.

So- the market is being dragged down- by secondhand units- because no-one is happy to make the investment to bring the units that are hitting the market up to modern specs.

The fall in prices could be arrested if some changes were made to, for example, the rules governing the grant for first time buyers allowing them avail of the government largess on secondhand units.

Everyone wants the new units- while there is a dearth of people chasing the secondhand units- which are being sold in increasingly shabby and dilapidated states.
the asking prices for 'second hand' units need to reflect the six figure investments needed to bring them up to code...

estate agents need to wise up and start advising clients appropriately..
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