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Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Rougies wrote: »
    When are rainfall totals calculated from radar returns? Not familiar with the app, maybe that's what you mean. Surely not in any professional meteorological setting anyway.

    They would not be calculated for official climate stats but more for monitoring the quality of the radar network and ground-truthing it to actual climate rainfall station data. Most national services do this and I have even seen Oneiric posting some such charts here from time to time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,061 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    No rain here in Castlebar with that weak front now passed through.The Moon is out and while cooler its certainly not cold. 12 degrees .


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Raining a bit in cork city now!


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Heavy rain started about ten minutes ago in Wexford.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Not to be taken seriously at this stage, but this is the latest ECM model run 10 day rainfall total forecast:

    xBtAAXc.png

    Not very often that you see Connemara standing out as being the driest place in the land.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Majority of that total is right at the far end of the model range too:

    s0HEnUYSIK.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    yep most if not all of our weather will be from Europe over the next 2 to 3 weeks, not the Atlantic.

    Our traditional conveyer belt of low pressures in off the Atlantic are off the table in the near to medium term. We can still get a decent drop of rain from the east but it's usually showery in nature.

    Yes, there might be a decent drop of rain in the east and south in that scenario, but a lot of other regions would probably see much less. The likes of Robertkk might get enough rain, but those further west, who want rain, are unlikely to be satisfied if it pans out like this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Not to be taken seriously at this stage, but this is the latest ECM model run 10 day rainfall total forecast:

    xBtAAXc.png

    Not very often that you see Connemara standing out as being the driest place in the land.

    If this model chart turns out to be correct it would be good news for Dublin water supply.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    It's by no means an end to drought conditions showing in that ECM forecast. Average across the country of less than 25mm in a 10 day period - that's barely at average rainfall - approaching midsummer when soil moisture deficits are close to 70mm it wont make much difference to crop growth or groundwater for most.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Not to be taken seriously at this stage, but this is the latest ECM model run 10 day rainfall total forecast:

    xBtAAXc.png

    Not very often that you see Connemara standing out as being the driest place in the land.

    Are we heading into a 2012(I think it was) summer where the east and south had endless rain and west was best?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Charts are starting to trend a bit dryer again but there is alot of uncertainty. As mentioned earlier most of the rain forecast over the next one to two weeks is from the north or the east, not the Atlantic. The Azores high has moved to our west, and this may still be enough to keep Ireland largely dry, maybe eastern areas a bit wetter. The UK still looks in store for a soaking over the next week to 10 days but Ireland not so much.

    The ECM see's the low pressure this weekend sliding down the eastern coast of the UK, Ireland at the very western extent of this so there may not be much rain for us this weekend.

    ECMOPEU00_96_1.png

    Early next week the ECM keeps us largely dry and more settled with temperatures recovering slightly. Eastern parts of UK still look quite unsettled with low's sliding down the eastern side of the country.

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

    We do get a low sliding down over us next Thursday but this is a whole week away and it wouldn't take much to slide this low to our east, and we would miss out on this as well.

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

    That low moves to our south after this and we draw in a warm and settled easterly after this.

    The UKMO does not have this low pressure next Thursday, we stay under the influence of the azores high.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    The UKMO keeps Ireland fairly dry over the next week.

    The latest GFS keeps Ireland relatively dry till next Wednesday or Thursday then we get that low sliding down over the country which would bring much needed rain, but this is a week away, and even as is, the rainfall from this low doesn't look that heavy away from our east coast.

    GFSOPEU12_183_1.png

    The tracking of the lows later next week will be important, we could get a a spell of light to moderate rain or we could end up seeing no rain at all, this is something we will have to watch over the next few days for those who want rain. Certainly western and south-western areas of the country stand the greatest chance of seeing little in the way of rain or perhaps none at all.

    This mornings GEM keeps Ireland very dry next week and it extends the Azores high right over us by the end of next week. The GEM is rolling out again so perhaps the new update will change this.

    GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

    GEMOPEU00_240_2.png

    Perhaps by the end of this weekend we will have a better idea what we are in store for next week, will we get this more unsettled scene from next Thursday or will we remain on the dry side.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Are we heading into a 2012(I think it was) summer where the east and south had endless rain and west was best?
    Was west best in summer 2012? Just looking just 2 stations here and Claremorris recorded a slightly wetter summer period than Casement that year for example.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Was west best in summer 2012? Just looking just 2 stations here and Claremorris recorded a slightly wetter summer period than Casement that year for example.

    Summer 2012 was certainly the coldest dullest summer I remember in the west - but maybe it was worse in the east?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Charts are starting to trend a bit dryer again but there is alot of uncertainty. As mentioned earlier most of the rain forecast over the next one to two weeks is from the north or the east, not the Atlantic. The Azores high has moved to our west, and this may still be enough to keep Ireland largely dry, maybe eastern areas a bit wetter. The UK still looks in store for a soaking over the next week to 10 days but Ireland not so much.

    The ECM see's the low pressure this weekend sliding down the eastern coast of the UK, Ireland at the very western extent of this so there may not be much rain for us this weekend.

    ECMOPEU00_96_1.png

    Early next week the ECM keeps us largely dry and more settled with temperatures recovering slightly. Eastern parts of UK still look quite unsettled with low's sliding down the eastern side of the country.

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

    We do get a low sliding down over us next Thursday but this is a whole week away and it wouldn't take much to slide this low to our east, and we would miss out on this as well.

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

    That low moves to our south after this and we draw in a warm and settled easterly after this.

    The UKMO does not have this low pressure next Thursday, we stay under the influence of the azores high.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    The UKMO keeps Ireland fairly dry over the next week.

    The latest GFS keeps Ireland relatively dry till next Wednesday or Thursday then we get that low sliding down over the country which would bring much needed rain, but this is a week away, and even as is, the rainfall from this low doesn't look that heavy away from our east coast.

    GFSOPEU12_183_1.png

    The tracking of the lows later next week will be important, we could get a a spell of light to moderate rain or we could end up seeing no rain at all, this is something we will have to watch over the next few days for those who want rain. Certainly western and south-western areas of the country stand the greatest chance of seeing little in the way of rain or perhaps none at all.

    This mornings GEM keeps Ireland very dry next week and it extends the Azores high right over us by the end of next week. The GEM is rolling out again so perhaps the new update will change this.

    GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

    GEMOPEU00_240_2.png

    Perhaps by the end of this weekend we will have a better idea what we are in store for next week, will we get this more unsettled scene from next Thursday or will we remain on the dry side.

    Great analysis there Gonzo.

    Unfortunately for those of us in need of rain, it can be summed up with just three words "drier than normal" and more so in the west


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Summer 2012 was certainly the coldest dullest summer I remember in the west - but maybe it was worse in the east?

    A selection of the stats from Summer 2012. South wettest and NW driest it would seem:

    ZdY0bTR.png

    (Met Eireann)

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    2.5mm of rain in Sligo so far today. Just need another 57.5mm to wipe our SMD.

    Actually 3.9mm now as added 2.5mm instead of 3.5mm to my total


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    5.2mm in Sligo today after 8 hours of mist almost non stop.

    True Summers return.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,456 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Had 2mm in North Kerry this morning. It's a start


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Latest guidance has really downgraded rain totals in the next 7 days. If it keeps trending this way it would appear that real drought relief remains outside of reliable forecasting period. Very odd weather since early March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It is very odd weather, but this is what was predicted by some experts.
    There does seem to be a recurring theme over the last couple of months, which is why it is folly to conclude after a couple of model runs that a protracted unsettled spell is nigh. We have seen before that while blocking patterns can have temporary blips, they are hard to breakdown. If the top models all start showing an onslaught from the Atlantic then I might start saying summer is over.
    Although if I was in the Scottish highlands this Saturday, i might not believe you that it was summer at all!


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    most areas will see a few mm of rain between today and Sunday evening in the form of showers. Next week looks almost completely dry away from north-western and western coasts. This weekend's showers may be the only rainfall we will see over the next 10 days if the models are correct as it looks like the Azores high is going to set up shop once again over us next week and into next weekend. After that we may have to hope for thundery showers to see rain. Our usual Atlantic dominated pattern is nowhere to be seen in any of the models.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Our usual Atlantic dominated pattern is nowhere to be seen in any of the models.

    Simon Lee has a good explanation on twitter as to why exactly this is happening.


    https://twitter.com/i/status/1268829506535665666


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    most areas will see more rain or showers over the next 24 hours, particularly the north and north-west where 10mm is possible by the morning, further south more like 3 to 8 mm. Could be more than this later tomorrow as more showers move into eastern and northern areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Very odd weather. The car registered 26c driving last week and today 7c. Big dip.

    Rained lots today but still only 8mm since the rain returned. Likely 20mm by tomorrow evening then a bit more next week before it tapers off again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Just watered my plant pots, the wind out there is drying everything out at a shocking rate. Think I'm going to google how to do a rain dance.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Latest models are crazy

    Rains back for rest of June.

    How did that just happen?

    At least no water shortages now but how did it flip from warm and sunny to winter like in a day. Never seen this before. Models usually gradually trend but this is like a switch from all of them. Summers over. Boo hoo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    pauldry wrote: »
    Latest models are crazy

    Rains back for rest of June.

    How did that just happen?



    It worked!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭afatbollix


    Just had a thunderstorm roll through in West London, All the grass has died around here so very needed storm its put about 100L into my waterbutt :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Not much rain in the last week. Totals ranged from 13mm in Knock to zero, zilch, nada in Sherkin Island.

    Running national mean 7 day % total over the last week. Rising, but still remaining well below normal.

    yAd8You.png

    uuɐǝɹᴉƎ ʇǝW ɯoɹɟ ɐʇɐp ll∀

    New Moon



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    rainfall will start increasing from this week. A band of mostly light rain and showers will cross the country Tuesday evening introducing colder air. On Wednesday a low should track down across the country from the north, currently it looks like northern and eastern areas most at risk. The track of this low could change meaning other areas of the country could be more affected or if it tracks more towards eastern UK, we could miss out on it. From Thursday we go into an easterly with more showers, mainly in eastern areas and from then on the south looks more at risk with showers and these possibly heavy.

    I get the feeling much of this could be hit or miss, south-western areas probably escaping most of the rain this week.

    Projected rainfall totals over the next week:

    174-777UK.GIF?07-12

    This probably isn't enough rain for the farmers but it's safe to say the dry spell is over. This should be enough rain to turn most gardens green again.


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