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03-12-2019, 07:45   #331
Artane2002
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What a beautiful shot!

From what I remember, sunrise wasn't really anything to write home about so you didn't really miss much.
A stunner of a sunrise this morning though!

It's very frosty and cold too in Dublin 5. It's already been a better winter than last year even though we're only three days in...
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03-12-2019, 08:59   #332
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Another largely clear morning here in this part of Mayo but change is afoot. The breeze which has taken a bit of a sabbatical here recently has reappeared in the form of a cool freshening southerly with a wee bite to it. I agree with one of Oneiric's posts recently in the Autumn thread about the general lack of storminess and strong winds over the past number of weeks in this part of the world. The breeze is usually a constant companion down here during autumn and early winter. I do know however that all somebody needs to do is leave the door ajar and the good old Atlantic will be back in. I will bank these last few days of early winter gladly.
4c.
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03-12-2019, 13:00   #333
jprboy
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I've searched but can't locate M.T.'s winter forecast.

Anyone able to point me towards it?

Thanks!
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03-12-2019, 13:09   #334
Loughc
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I've searched but can't locate M.T.'s winter forecast.

Anyone able to point me towards it?

Thanks!
Mild, Wet, Windy. /End
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03-12-2019, 13:40   #335
easypazz
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Can you please stop filling up the thread with this rubbish?
Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.
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03-12-2019, 13:58   #336
Tzmaster90
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M.T Respect

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Originally Posted by easypazz View Post
Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.
Don't disrespect M.T he knows more than you he was working at it longer but I do hope he is wrong and we have more cold and snowy
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03-12-2019, 14:07   #337
Logan Roy
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Don't disrespect M.T he knows more than you he was working at it longer but I do hope he is wrong and we have more cold and snowy
He's making a fair point, LRF are rubbish, it's nothing to do with disrespecting someone. It's all well and fine saying there's a 60% chance of a colder than average winter, but that still means there's a 40% chance of that not being the case. Not particularly useful.....
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03-12-2019, 16:27   #338
nacho libre
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The first pulse of cold has already got less cold....the 2nd one will follow and instead of 2 or 3c we will get 5 to 8c

Always happens.....except in 2010 and the beast.
Well, yes that event has led to unrealistic expectations, if you are holding out for that each time there is talk of cold weather you are are likely to be disappointed.

I am hoping for a 2- three day cold spell with a polar low - just like the ones we use to know. I think we can get that at some stage if the current pattern in the northern hemisphere holds. Several icedays in a row are unlikely in a mobile regime, but if the jet has a tendency to stay to the south, we may get decent arctic incursions at times.
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03-12-2019, 16:28   #339
US2
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When can ye expect to have confidence in those cold charts for dec 10 + ? Seems to be showing the cold for a couple of runs now , are all the models in agreement?
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03-12-2019, 16:51   #340
BLIZZARD7
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When can ye expect to have confidence in those cold charts for dec 10 + ? Seems to be showing the cold for a couple of runs now , are all the models in agreement?
Real confidence? Wait for +72hrs and all in agreement. A Very fragile but also potentially very interesting setup coming up - Reasonable confidence once you get inside +120hrs. Anything beyond +144hrs is liable to significant change.

Cold and unsettled from around the 10/11th onwards going by the GFS and ECM. UKMO quite a bit flatter on this afternoon's 12z run though so confidence low beyond +120hrs at the moment.
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03-12-2019, 16:54   #341
loughside
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Beautiful sunset in cork city today and drove out a bit too and looked lovely over all the fields with fog forming in them.

Aye, some great sunsets these past couple of evenings..


Co.down
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03-12-2019, 17:48   #342
Rougies
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Some nice lenticular clouds over the Dublin mountains this evening.


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03-12-2019, 20:49   #343
squarecircles
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The reality of the cold artic plunge next week now begining to filter into the BBC forecast outlook.
Cold begining to get locked in now, GFS and ECM in agreement.

'' A plume of cold air pushes out of the Artic across our shores''
''Things turning very much wintery...an increased chance of severe frosts and snow showers''



https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/50652225
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03-12-2019, 20:50   #344
Meteorite58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easypazz View Post
Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.
Mod Note

easypazz , no need for such statements on this forum.

Disagree if you will with another posters views but show respect especially to MT who has contributed so much over many years to this forum.
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03-12-2019, 21:40   #345
YanSno
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Cold Wintry weather in pretty much in agreement for next week. Icon seems to be going that way too. Further down, Potential of a Blocking, HP could be to our North East which will introduce either an easterly or North easterly. This could happen before Christmas or just after, long way off though. Regarding next week uppers could be on the marginal side along the coast and also potential of some long fetch streams as the week goes on. Still in FI, Let's see how this pans out.
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