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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 283 43.14%
No impact 143 21.80%
Global warming is here to stay 124 18.90%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 106 16.16%
Voters: 656. You may not vote on this poll

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02-11-2019, 10:48   #826
Mad_Lad
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Just because of 1 spot ?
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02-11-2019, 11:21   #827
dolanbaker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highdef View Post
Well that's a quick turnaround!
Not really, it's well known that the cycles overlay quite considerably as you can see from the chart below, all the cycles overlap.







These overlaps do not mean that when a sunspot of the next cycle appears that the minimum has passed. The prediction of an early peak in cycle 25 as early as 2023 is interesting though, if correct then it will be a short weak cycle as predicted by others.
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23-11-2019, 17:32   #828
nacho libre
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Getting closer to the 2009 total now. Hopefully this will be a case of history repeating itself; we get a really cold period during 2020/21.
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30-11-2019, 08:44   #829
BLIZZARD7
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8 more blank days to match 2009, 16 more to match 2008. We're well on course to record the quietest year of the space age, baring any big increase in activity through December.

Current Stretch: 16 days
2019 total: 252 days (76%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 29 Nov 2019
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07-12-2019, 17:02   #830
BLIZZARD7
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We have now matched 2009 with 260 Days blank and are on course to comfortably beat 2008. 2019 will go down as one of the most blank years on record, definitely top 5 and most likely top 2/3.

Current Stretch: 23 days
2019 total: 260 days (76%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 07 Dec 2019



Edit: Above graph highlights 2018 (Not 2019) but I've included it to show the top 5 blank years to date^
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07-12-2019, 17:55   #831
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The spotless count would have been higher if the single sub-day "pimples" hadn't been counted as spot days, There have been at least three recent spots that lasted only one day or less.
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10-12-2019, 10:03   #832
firemansam4
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Latest NOAA forecast published yesterday:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar...fcDgVqqi-gZeX0

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11-12-2019, 08:56   #833
BLIZZARD7
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Now up to 77% Blank for the year to date...

Current Stretch: 28 days
2019 total: 265 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
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14-12-2019, 07:18   #834
bazlers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
Now up to 77% Blank for the year to date...



Current Stretch: 28 days
2019 total: 265 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

We are now equal to 2008.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 31 days
2019 total: 268 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 14 Dec 2019
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15-12-2019, 06:07   #835
bazlers
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Originally Posted by bazlers View Post
We are now equal to 2008.

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 31 days
2019 total: 268 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 14 Dec 2019

That's the space age record broken folks. 2008 record broken.
( and I promise I wont post every spotless day. Just thought it needed to be highlighted.)

Updated 15 Dec 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 32 days
2019 total: 269 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 15 Dec 2019
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15-12-2019, 06:19   #836
bazlers
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Blizzard and Dolanbaker and I'm sure others that I'm forgetting have put great effort into this thread.
A historic day guys. I have a feeling the next solar min will be weaker still if we are around to see it : 0

Dolanbaker do you see this continued minimum having a big influence on winters going forward? Ie 2020/21
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15-12-2019, 10:43   #837
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Originally Posted by bazlers View Post
Blizzard and Dolanbaker and I'm sure others that I'm forgetting have put great effort into this thread.
A historic day guys. I have a feeling the next solar min will be weaker still if we are around to see it : 0

Dolanbaker do you see this continued minimum having a big influence on winters going forward? Ie 2020/21
Possibly, just look back to the winters either end of 2010 both had periods of prolonged cold arctic air over the country.

I am still unsure of exactly the connection works but I have read that reduced solar activity weakens the magnetic field in the upper atmosphere which allows in more cosmic rays and these "seed" clouds in the polar regions, then these become cloudier as a result.
The clouds then trap more heat (a bit like extra CO2) thus slowing down the migration of warmer air northwards over the temperate regions of the earth (like northwest Europe) leaving us on the cold side.

Well that's my theory.
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15-12-2019, 19:19   #838
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If one wanted to be pedantic about the solar cycle, comparing now to 2008/2009 wouldn't be really proper, since the Sun undergoes a polarity shift roughly every 11 years and the 2008/2009 Sun similarity shouldn't really be till 2030/2031.
That's not to say 2019/2020 won't have similar weather. But ye know what I'm saying re pole locations on the Sun.

The snowy winter weather seems to take a year's lag from solar minimum going on 09/10. So that's next winter 2020/2021 that could be expected to be the big one for this country. But then I'm half breaking my rule of not comparing to 11 years ago.
Ok I'll stop now!!
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15-12-2019, 22:48   #839
dolanbaker
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If one wanted to be pedantic about the solar cycle, comparing now to 2008/2009 wouldn't be really proper, since the Sun undergoes a polarity shift roughly every 11 years and the 2008/2009 Sun similarity shouldn't really be till 2030/2031.
That's not to say 2019/2020 won't have similar weather. But ye know what I'm saying re pole locations on the Sun.

The snowy winter weather seems to take a year's lag from solar minimum going on 09/10. So that's next winter 2020/2021 that could be expected to be the big one for this country. But then I'm half breaking my rule of not comparing to 11 years ago.
Ok I'll stop now!!
Yes, not an exact science at all, the cold winters of 2010 were after the minimum, rather than in the middle of the minimum, so yes, if cold winters can directly be attributed to a deep solar minimum, then either this winter or next winter could have a prolonged cold spell. If the solar magnetic field reversing every two cycles (or is that every half cycle) has a direct affect on the weather, then we should expect severe winters every 22 years or so. i.e. every 22 years the solar and earth's poles oppose and then the opposite half they attract.
Would be interesting to check toe records on that.
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16-12-2019, 13:57   #840
Dubh Geannain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dolanbaker View Post
Possibly, just look back to the winters either end of 2010 both had periods of prolonged cold arctic air over the country.

I am still unsure of exactly the connection works but I have read that reduced solar activity weakens the magnetic field in the upper atmosphere which allows in more cosmic rays and these "seed" clouds in the polar regions, then these become cloudier as a result.
The clouds then trap more heat (a bit like extra CO2) thus slowing down the migration of warmer air northwards over the temperate regions of the earth (like northwest Europe) leaving us on the cold side.

Well that's my theory.
My understanding:
A weakened solar magnetic field is the cause of the lower solar activity. This decreases the strength of the heliosphere and allows more cosmic radiation into our solar system and thus the earth.

See around 7:50 in the vid SeaBreezes posted. The background field and solar field flip every 11 years. As the fields flip you will get the lowest sunspot activity but also a weakened Heliosphere. However, lower and lower sunspot activity overtime implies that the magnetic field loops are weak overall with the knock on implications for the Heliosphere strength.

A weakened earths magnetic field will also amplify the amount of radiation getting into our atmosphere.

Unfortunately the chart below only goes back to 2014 which was when the current cycle peaked but -

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