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27-11-2019, 11:39   #31
pauldry
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Certainly.

Our coldest Month of the season has just passed if you ask me bar Spring
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27-11-2019, 14:37   #32
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Just a bit of bad news for those hoping for a white Christmas but my following statement won't necessarily state what type of Christmas we get.

I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.
Thank heaven! The cold this month.. The last 2 winters here I never used a hot water bottle. Been glued to 2 of them this month...
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27-11-2019, 17:18   #33
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Just a bit of bad news for those hoping for a white Christmas but my following statement won't necessarily state what type of Christmas we get.

I THINK DECEMBER 2019 WILL BE MILDER THAN NOVEMBER 2019.
Hopefully you are right but less rain would be a bonus...been very wet these last few weeks...
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02-12-2019, 12:16   #34
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No big changes on the forecast this morning. December is looking a hard one to call generally with indications of a more mobile pattern (wind and rain) mid / late month one day and colder weather indicated the next. The GFS starts forecasting up to Christmas day from this day week onwards. The ECM won't get that far until 15 December. Accordingly we won't really have any particularly educated guesses up until then. For now the GFS only goes up to 18 December but looks chilly enough overall. This morning's CFS is suggesting a very mild spell starting on 23 December. Hopefully not the case....
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02-12-2019, 13:56   #35
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Paddy Power 4/1 for Dublin, I might have a little bet I think
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02-12-2019, 16:31   #36
Rebelbrowser
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Paddy Power 4/1 for Dublin, I might have a little bet I think
Just looked at PP website. Criteria seems to just be that it snows on Christmas day (no mention of amount). Assume it would be for the Met station at Dublin airport to verify.

How many days in winter (1/12 to 28/2) would meet that criteria typically though? I reckon about 3 or 4 at best in an average winter (even allowing for that snow to stick / fall overnight and be washed away before the morning by rain, etc). Thus 4-1 seems fairly ungenerous to me accordingly! That said I'm aware of this stat that it has apparently snowed on average 1 Christmas day out of 7 at Dublin airport since records began. Hard to rationalise that isn't it?
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04-12-2019, 13:48   #37
pauldry
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Charts for 2nd half of December look very mobile

Id say the chances for Xmas are thus approx so far

Cold and Dry 10 percent
Cold and Showery and breezy 55 per cent
White Out 5 percent

Mild moist and misty 15 percent
Stormy and wet 15 percent
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06-12-2019, 20:09   #38
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I remember that Christmas Day snowfall in 2004(?) - It was like the perfect kind of snowfall it fell on Christmas eve, I remember looking out the window and seeing a fox walking passed the backdoor Then a lovely covering for a Christmas morning walk and it faded into the evening. Just the right amount.

2009 we had lots of lovely soft snow here too. 2010 was snowy but it had compacted to slippy ice and that made two years in a row with no electric or running water on Christmas day. So I was getting over the noveltly value

Yep, I'd enjoy a return of 2004's snow just for the magic.
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06-12-2019, 20:31   #39
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In 3 days, FI Charts will take us up to Christmas day so we can get a much better idea how the big day itself will pan out.

The CFS is currently showing mild south-westerlies over Ireland for Christmas Day with a big area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic. This will of course change as this is 3 weeks out.

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07-12-2019, 20:56   #40
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Id say mild moist n misty is most likely now

10 to 13c.....so we can ignore the weather on Xmas day.....again
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08-12-2019, 17:23   #41
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GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.


This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.
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08-12-2019, 17:45   #42
esposito
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GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.


This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.
Really hope so Gonzo. Do not want a repeat of Christmas 2011 & 2015 when temperatures hit 13/14 degrees on Christmas Day. When will the weather gods give us a cold crisp Christmas??
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08-12-2019, 18:13   #43
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A decade of pure rubbish xmas weather overall if its seasonal weather you want Although it did start with a bang. From about 95 -2010 we got a reasonable amount of seasonal weather at xmas time . Been poor for that since.
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08-12-2019, 22:29   #44
Rebelbrowser
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GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.


This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.
Of course nothing set in stone but it is incredible how often this has happened over the last 10 years. Appears almost non random that this plume of warm air arrives from Iberia this time most years.
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08-12-2019, 22:45   #45
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Of course nothing set in stone but it is incredible how often this has happened over the last 10 years. Appears almost non random that this plume of warm air arrives from Iberia this time most years.
Thank you Iberia. We live in an uninsulated farmhouse, so a warm winter is much appreciated.
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