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28-10-2019, 19:07   #31
M.T. Cranium
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We're going to have a new MIN as Mountdillon and Markree both had -3 on several hourly obs last night.
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29-10-2019, 08:31   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
We're going to have a new MIN as Mountdillon and Markree both had -3 on several hourly obs last night.
Just to confirm MIN is now -3°c at Mt Dillon. It was there I was looking for a Tropical resort hotel now I am looking for an Ice hotel.
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29-10-2019, 14:19   #33
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The new MIN even lower, -3.4 at Markree.

After four weeks ...

IMT was at 9.4 C (barely as 9.36 rounded up), the past week only 6.5 which was 2.8 below normal (and lower than last February). Could possibly claw back to 9.5 with milder weather expected last two days of the month.

MAX still has not broken 18, new MIN -3.4.

PRC is at 95% of normal after another rather dry week (70% of normal). Could edge back up to normal with any substantial rainfalls Wed-Thurs.

Bonus now looks like it might favour the higher guesses.

SUN now at 119% of normal with this past week near 130% (777/600). Looks likely to finish closer to 110%.
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29-10-2019, 15:10   #34
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One of those months rare months this year when NormaL beats Con Sensus.
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29-10-2019, 19:11   #35
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Could end up on one of the lowest ever scores for me. Worse than fantasy footie.
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31-10-2019, 20:39   #36
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Will confirm all this tomorrow but IMT likely to finish 9.3 as it was 9.26 after 30 days, today is milder but not so much as to push that past 9.34 (I think). The PRC was about 95% of normal (rough estimate) going into today with some rain falling at most of the locations, could be quite close to 100% on finish by midnight. MAX was not threatened so will be scoring that off minimum progression. MIN likely to be confirmed as -3.4 (but MS not available until 4th). SUN was about average on 29th-30th, nothing much today, that should edge the previous value down a touch to 115%. Clearly the mildest predictions will work out best for midnight readings (bonus question).

Will show some provisional scoring tomorrow and adjust as necessary later.
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01-11-2019, 07:15   #37
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The lowest temperature at midnight was 10 C at Malin and Finner (I forgot to look on the hour, so those are rounded off from meteociel 24h maps but only one forecaster was close anyway, Pauldry said 9.8. That's so much better than the field that instead of a superbonus I will award Pauldry ten points and start the countdown at nine points for the three who were at least somewhere in the ballpark, Bsal (6.0), Tae laidir (5.8) and JPmarn (5.5). From there down it will be pairs at each scoring level. Mickger844posts (5.0) and waterways (4.2) have eight points, etc. This will all be in the provisional scoring later today when I have final values for IMT and PRC. Declaring sunshine to be 115% until I can check the MS.

Oddly, only two forecasters went below normal this month (myself and BLIZZARD7) so while we will do better for IMT, we both share zero points for the bonus with our frosty fizzlers. Annoyingly the GFS had this same scenario about a week ago, so it turns out that while we can't predict the weather, we can predict the GFS.
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01-11-2019, 16:28   #38
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IMT confirmed at 9.3 C.

PRC works out to 95% with only the south coast above normal.

SUN for this provisional scoring 115%, MAX sub 18, MIN -3.4, bonus 10 C.

Here are your provisional scores subject to final adjustments on Monday 4th when it should be possible to confirm all unresolved questions from the MS.

The MAX scores marked with * have been adjusted for minimum progression. That was almost needed in some other categories but none qualified as raw scores stayed within limits set and there were some reasonably high scores in each case. It seems that just about everyone mixed up some good and poor forecasts of various elements so the totals are fairly lacklustre, apart from Waterways who will be making a good move on the leader (rhymes with username too, or in my head it does, not speaking Gaelic). I did get a meaning for the words a few years back. Anyone know what I could call myself if I decide to go "weak tea" as a counterpoint?

Anyway, unless there was something I totally overlooked, I can't see these scores changing very much after the fourth, but I will hold off posting the annual totals until then. Most of you will be dropping this score from the "best 8 of 10" portion and finding the second lowest one from earlier this year in its place, but a few scores were respectable if not entirely dazzling as we normally see in our contest. That sound was Normal pushing past you.


FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus ___ TOTAL

Confirmed or estimated ____ 9.3_17.8_-3.4_095_115___ 10.0


Waterways ______________ 14 _ 10*_ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 65


___ NormaL _____________ 17 _ 07*_ 14 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 63


john mac ______ (-1) _____ 15 _ 07*_ 19 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 05 _63-1=62

Joe Public _____ (-2) ______16 _ 18*_ 18 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 03 _64-2=62

BLIZZARD7 ______________22 _ 17*_ 14 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 00 _____ 60

Rikand __________________13 _ 07*_ 16 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 01 _____ 59

Kindred Spirit ____________ 14 _ 15*_ 06 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 07 _____ 58

Dasa29 _________________ 14 _ 15*_ 06 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 57

Bsal ____________________13 _ 12*_ 06 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 56

M.T. Cranium ____________ 21 _ 07*_ 16 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 00 _____ 51

Jpmarn _________________ 07 _ 19*_ 04 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 09 _____ 51


___ Con Sensus __________ 12 _ 12*_ 07 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 50



mickger844posts _________ 12 _ 11*_ 02 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 49

sryanbruen ______________ 06 _ 15*_ 07 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 04 _____ 47

MrsKinner _______________ 12 _ 15*_ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 01 _____ 46

Adam240610 ___ (-2) _____ 09 _ 17*_ 15 _ 03 _ 00 ___ 02 _46-2=44

Sunflower3 ______________ 10 _ 03*_ 11 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 44

Tae laidir ________________08 _ 13*_ 03 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 41

DOCARCH _______________ 13 _ 02*_ 07 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 04 _____ 41

pauldry _________________ 00 _ 07*_ 16 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 39

200motels _______________05 _ 07*_ 07 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 04 _____ 38

Rameire _______ (-2) _____ 12 _ 12*_ 01 _ 05 _ 03 ___ 06 _39-2=37

Artane2002 ____ (-4) _____ 08 _ 13*_ 00 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 06 _40-4=36

Dacogawa _______________11 _ 10*_ 09 _ 00 _ 03 ___ 02 _____ 35





















=====================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Min temp 31st 2359h


pauldry _________________11.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 148 _ 094 ____ 9.8

200motels ______________ 11.3 _ 21.0 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 2.1

sryanbruen ______________11.2 _ 20.0 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 2.1

Jpmarn _________________11.1 _ 19.5 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 5.5

Artane2002 ____ (-4) _____ 11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.2 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 3.2

Tae laidir ________________11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.7 _ 133 _ 095 ____ 5.8

Adam240610 ___ (-2) _____ 10.9 _ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 066 ____ 0.3

Sunflower3 ______________ 10.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 4.0

Dacogawa _______________10.7 _ 20.9 _ -2.3 _ 165 _ 082 ____ 1.1

mickger844posts _________ 10.6 _ 20.5 _ -1.6 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 5.0

Rameire _______ (-2) _____10.6 _ 20.4 _ -1.5 _ 125 _ 080 ____ 3.6

MrsKinner _______________10.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.7 _ 116 _ 100 ____-0.7


___ Con Sensus __________10.6 _ 20.4 _ -2.1 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 3.1


DOCARCH _______________10.5 _ 21.8 _ -2.1 _ 109 _ 088 ____ 2.3

Rikand _________________ 10.5 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 0.0

Bsal ___________________ 10.5 _ 20.3 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 6.0

Waterways ______________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 097 ____ 4.2

Dasa29 _________________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 3.0

Kindred Spirit ____________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 105 _ 085 ____ 4.0

john mac ______ (-1) _____ 10.3 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 107 _ 093 ____ 3.1

Joe Public _____ (-2) ______10.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 130 _ 095 ____ 1.5


___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0


M.T. Cranium _____________ 9.7 _ 21.0 _ -3.8 _ 150 _ 100 ____-1.5

BLIZZARD7 _______________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -4.0 _ 150 _ 100 ____ -2.8
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03-11-2019, 22:18   #39
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Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to October)

(with current provisional October scores, subject to adjustment on 4th)

(order is now best 8/10, last month's rank for 6/8 in brackets)
__ (rank for total score shown in brackets after total score.)


_(rank) _ best 8/10_FORECASTER ____ Jan _Feb _Mar_Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep_Oct __ 2019 TOTAL


_ 01 (01) __ 583 __ Tae laidir ________ 70 _ 67 _ 83 _ 80 _ 58 _ 64 _ 83 _ 73 _ 63 _ 41 __ 682 (1)

_ 02 (04) __ 549 __ Sunflower3 _______77 _ 67 _ 67 _ 52 _ 60 _ 58 _ 79 _ 70 _ 69 _ 44 __ 643 (2)

_ 03 (05) __ 540 __ waterways _______ 75 _ 19 _ 63 _ 70 _ 56 _ 84 _ 58 _ 69 _ 43 _ 65 __ 602 (9)

_t04 (02) __ 539 __ Artane2002 ______ 46 _ 60 _ 48 _ 52 _ 66 _ 73 _ 91 _ 69 _ 80 _ 36 __ 621 (3)

_t04 (03) __ 539 __ mickger844posts __ 65 _ 47 _ 68 _ 33 _ 65 _ 69 _ 77 _ 78 _ 68 _ 49 __ 619 (4)




_(06)(06) __ 525 __ Con Sensus_______61 _ 57 _ 72 _ 53 _ 57 _ 67 _ 74 _ 72 _ 65 _ 50 __ 628 (3)


_ 06 (06) __ 523 __ Bsal _____________47 _ 58 _ 77 _ 45 _ 56 _ 59 _ 77 _ 74 _ 66 _ 56 __ 615 (6)

_ 07 (t08)__ 520 __ Adam240610 _____ 63 _ 65 _ 59 _ 66 _ 59 _ 52 _ 72 _ 69 _ 67 _ 44 __ 616 (5)

_t08 (10) __ 518 __ Kindred Spirit _____58 _ 62 _ 77 _ 44 _ 49 _ 20 _ 71 _ 73 _ 70 _ 58 __ 592 (12)

_t08 (11) __ 518 __ john mac ________ 49 _ 61 _ 63 _ 67 _ 39 _ 83 _ 62 _ 50 _ 70 _ 62 __ 606 (8)

_ 10 (t08)__ 513 __ MrSkinner ________70 _ 52 _ 50 _ 64 _ 55 _ 64 _ 75 _ 69 _ 64 _ 46 __ 609 (7)

_ 11 (07) __ 512 __ sryanbruen _______41 _ 42 _ 56 _ 53 _ 86 _ 70 _ 82 _ 51 _ 67 _ 47 __ 595 (11)

_ 12 (13) __ 503 __ Jpmarn __________69 _ 43 _ 60 _ 62 _ 58 _ 58 _ 50 _ 70 _ 75 _ 51 __ 596 (10)

_ 13 (12) __ 502 __ DOCARCH ________63 _ 68 _ 63 _ 48 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 __ 591 (13t)

_ 14 (15) __ 500 __ dasa29 __________ 48 _ 46 _ 85 _ 45 _ 62 _ 53 _ 65 _ 67 _ 63 _ 57 __ 591 (13t)

_ 15 (14) __ 498 __ pauldry __________55 _ 62 _ 60 _ 51 _ 53 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 59 _ 39 __ 588 (15)

_ 16 (18) __ 494 __ JCX BXC _________ 65 _ 53 _ 66 _ 38 _ 66 _ 65 _ 66 _ 55 _ 58 _ xx __ 532 (21)

_t17 (t16)__ 490 __ 200motels _______ 48 _ 68 _ 62 _ 60 _ 66 _ 49 _ 77 _ 42 _ 60 _ 38 __ 570 (18)

_t17 (t16)__ 490 __ Rameire _________ 56 _ 77 _ 64 _ 48 _ 61 _ 48 _ 54 _ 70 _ 60 _ 37 __ 575 (17)

_ 19 (19) __ 486 __ Joe Public ________ 62 _ 24 _ 44 _ 52 _ 60 _ 71 _ 56 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 __ 554 (20)

_ 20 (20) __ 481 __ Rikand ___________62 _ 59 _ 54 _ 56 _ 48 _ 64 _ 65 _ 62 _ 49 _ 59 __ 578 (16)


_(21)(23) __477 __ NormaL __________ 49 _ 60 _ 58 _ 48 _ 58 _ 57 _ 77 _ 51 _ 53 _ 63 __ 574 (18)


_ 21 (21) __ 472 __ M.T. Cranium _____ 45 _ 54 _ 59 _ 45 _ 57 _ 66 _ 69 _ 71 _ 39 _ 51 __ 556 (19)

_ 22 (22) __ 457 __ Dacogawa ________41 _ 49 _ 71 _ 60 _ 41 _ 70 _ 61 _ 64 _ --- _ 35 __ 492 (22)

_ 23 (23) __ 371 __ BLIZZARD7 _______18 _ --- _ 33 _ 55 _ 32 _ 49 _ 57 _ --- _ 67 _ 60 __ 371 (23)

_ --- (---) __ 275 __ YanSno __________62 _ --- _ --- _ 44 _ 58 _ 38 _ 73 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 275 (24)

_ --- (---) ________ Gonzo ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 64 _ 70 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 134 (25)

_ --- (---) ________ sdanseo __________45 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 81

_ --- (---) ________ bazlers ___________--- _ --- _ 50 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 50

_ --- (---) ________ Tazio ____________ --- _ 44 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 44

_ --- (---) ________ derekon __________39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 39

________________________________________________________________________________


These annual scores will be confirmed or adjusted later on the 4th. In general the field tightened up with many of the higher October scores falling in the bottom half of the field, but those further ahead generally used an earlier month's score rather than October to advance in the best 8/10 section. If October became one of your two "discards" then you added your second (now third) lowest score to best 7/9 to reach the new mark.

Tae laidir holds on to fairly comfortable leads in both contests. Waterways moved up to third behind Sunflower3 in second, in the best 10/12 (eventually) section, with a win in October. Most other changes are fairly minor and the main point is how close the scoring remains in the middle of the pack.
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04-11-2019, 11:46   #40
M.T. Cranium
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Monthly summary confirms all data used for scoring, the SUN worked out to 115% and the MAX was only 17.7.

Congrats to waterways for finishing first in October, and to tae laidir for maintaining an overall contest scoring lead (in both of our contests).
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30-11-2019, 21:02   #41
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Thank you and thank you too for your weather forecast contest every month.
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03-12-2019, 19:01   #42
M.T. Cranium
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Thanks, I enjoy the contests too.

Error detected in annual update post above (working on November's edition) ... rather minor and does not affect contest rankings.

Sunflower3 is shown with best 8/10 of 549 but that should have read 547. ... Also in error was the statement above the table about the order for 8/10 showing 6/8 in brackets, that should have been edited to say 7/9.

Kindred Spirit had a total score (last column) of 582 rather than 592 as shown. That makes his rank at the time 15th and moves up t13 to t12, Pauldry shown 15th was 14th. After that ranks resume correct order. The best 8/10 was shown correctly.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 03-12-2019 at 19:14.
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