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05-04-2019, 19:51   #31
M.T. Cranium
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I saw -3 at Moore Park this morning while preparing the forecast.

That -9.7 reading at Oak Park is some sort of glitch, the ground minimum is only -0.4. Hourlies never go below freezing.

Will monitor the daily data section for a correction on that.
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05-04-2019, 20:04   #32
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Synop reports give a min of -1.1c at Oak Park.
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06-04-2019, 12:40   #33
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-3.4c in Moore Park.

Could be hard beat as nights get shorter n sun stronger
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06-04-2019, 19:39   #34
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The dubious -9.7 reading is still there in "daily data" for 4th at Oak Park. If it should be -1.1 and remains in the calculations, that would make the mean for the 4th 4.3 deg too low (half the error) and the week will be reported 0.6 too low (4.3 / 7). That in turn would make the IMT report for the week 0.1 too low. It might not even affect the first decimal of the monthly IMT.
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08-04-2019, 18:54   #35
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After one week ...

IMT on 5.8 (5.9 if questionable data amended) or 2.1 below normal for the period.

MAX to the 7th was 14.8, this may be nudged up after today.

MIN that we find credible -3.4 (Moore Park), likely to be amended -9.7 (Oak Park).

PRC 111% of normal with the southwest drier than average, all other areas a bit wetter.

SUN has averaged 115% of normal (692/600).
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12-04-2019, 19:13   #36
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The dubious -9.7 reading at Oak Park remains in the daily data for 4th, I sent in an e-mail asking about it just to bring it to somebody's attention.

The IMT after eleven days is 6.70 C (6.74 with that error subject to adjustment, fairly soon its value overall will drop below 0.02 in the IMT).

Have seen a MAX of 15.4 since last report but not watching too closely as I would imagine later next week easy to get to 17 or 18 in the west.

Some horrific looking charts showing up in the 12-16 day time frame, probably won't happen I suppose but they bring some very chilly air south from the vicinity of northeast Greenland. Taking the GFS 12z run verbatim the IMT would probably take a gradual rise to near 8 by Easter then would fall back to low 7's later in the month.
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15-04-2019, 17:49   #37
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Update after two weeks ...

IMT on 6.7 C with this past week average 7.5, 0.9 below normal. (with the Oak Park error adjusted, 6.72 to 6.75 so perhaps 6.8). This looks like making a gradual rise into the mid 7 range in the coming week.

MAX remains at a vulnerable 15.4 waiting for a boost.

MIN is not yet confirmed to be the -3.4 reading at Moore Park, daily data has not changed for the spurious -9.7 Oak Park reading on 4th. Guessing that won't survive to the Monthly Summary.

PRC was 96% of normal with the week at 81%. However, today's rain would probably leave the monthly total around 120%. As not much more is expected this week, the average after three weeks might be back to where it was after two weeks with week three already guaranteed about 80% (most near 50% as only Cork of the eleven locations has seen really large totals today).

SUN has fallen to 89% with this past week only 62% (373/600). This value could begin to recover this week.
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18-04-2019, 18:24   #38
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For the archives, MAX increased to 16.2 on Wednesday and will be revised to at least 20 today with several locations reporting that value for several hours. And that won't be the end of it either.
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18-04-2019, 22:22   #39
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https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...50639982268417
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19-04-2019, 03:29   #40
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This would be the bonus scoring for any max above 18.8, a dry day with at least 9.6 hours sunshine at Dub (A).

For any max slightly below 18.6, BLIZZARD7 (21.0) would be too high to score 3 and highest of the 2's here (200motels at 16.3) would get 3 and an additional superbonus point.

For any sunshine 9 to 9.4, rikand would drop one point and one superbonus, the extra point would go to dacogawa who would then get two superbonus points ... at 9.5 both rikand and dacogawa get 3 points and 2 superbonus.



BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 19.0 _ 0.0 __ 9.6 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _______________ 5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

These would be the scores for any dry outcomes where max temp is greater than 18.8 and sunshine 9.5 hours.

Will revise this table or confirm its accuracy after the 21st. Please note I am taking a few days for holiday time (22nd to 29th roughly) which may mean delays in updating this thread. I will have some internet access though.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 19-04-2019 at 05:06.
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19-04-2019, 19:57   #41
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22.5c in Finner today new max

Over to Leinster at weekend to try and top that one
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21-04-2019, 23:42   #42
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Max 23.0 at Oak Park on Saturday. Check later to see if anyone beat that today.
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22-04-2019, 09:42   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Max 23.0 at Oak Park on Saturday. Check later to see if anyone beat that today.
Mercy
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22-04-2019, 15:08   #44
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The MAX remains 23.0 with Sunday's top reading 22.1 at Phoenix Park.

The early scoring for the bonus question is confirmed with Dublin's actuals 21.7, 0.0 mm and 12.2 hours. Rikand is the new Nostradamus.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 8.24 so could be 8.3 with the Oak Park error fixed (still in the daily data). Differential is now .2 for Oak Park so .04 overall. The past week average was 11.3 (2.4 above normal). Would expect a finish around 8.5 C.

MAX 23.0 and MIN -3.4

PRC is bang on the normal pace with this past week contributing 108% of normal, almost all of it fell on the 15th at Cork and Johnstown Castle, the average for the other nine locations being only 60% (Malin Head 22%). Looks as though this coming week will push PRC back above normal eventually though.

SUN has edged up to 99% of normal with this past week at 105% (630/600). The month is likely to end near normal but could slip back a few percentage points after today where it has probably reached perhaps 103%.

-- I am off for a week of adventure beyond the reach of the internet, the week four update may appear almost at the end of the 30th with some provisional scoring likely. The May contest thread will open up today in case I am even later getting back than planned. I may have a few minutes of internet access around 28th to bump it back to page one if necessary.
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22-04-2019, 17:37   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
This would be the bonus scoring for any max above 18.8, a dry day with at least 9.6 hours sunshine at Dub (A).

For any max slightly below 18.6, BLIZZARD7 (21.0) would be too high to score 3 and highest of the 2's here (200motels at 16.3) would get 3 and an additional superbonus point.

For any sunshine 9 to 9.4, rikand would drop one point and one superbonus, the extra point would go to dacogawa who would then get two superbonus points ... at 9.5 both rikand and dacogawa get 3 points and 2 superbonus.



BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 19.0 _ 0.0 __ 9.6 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _______________ 5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

These would be the scores for any dry outcomes where max temp is greater than 18.8 and sunshine 9.5 hours.

Will revise this table or confirm its accuracy after the 21st. Please note I am taking a few days for holiday time (22nd to 29th roughly) which may mean delays in updating this thread. I will have some internet access though.
Where is my score for the Bonus question?
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