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23-04-2019, 10:39   #166
Meteorite58
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Interesting seeing the point Convective Weather raises with the WRF-NM showing much higher Dew Points than the ECM.

ECM showing a couple of hundred j/kg CAPE in the W later this evening. Convergence along the coast there giving lot's of low level shear .Will see if anything materializes.













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23-04-2019, 11:04   #167
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in the zone here in west Mayo where convective/thunderstorms are possible today,the sky this morning looks ominous,sick,brooding,navy/orange skies,slack winds with the classic continental haze fading out the mountains,the grass velvet lush green,the buds blooming.
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23-04-2019, 17:00   #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squarecircles View Post
in the zone here in west Mayo where convective/thunderstorms are possible today,the sky this morning looks ominous,sick,brooding,navy/orange skies,slack winds with the classic continental haze fading out the mountains,the grass velvet lush green,the buds blooming.
And then you woke up ! haha
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23-04-2019, 23:36   #169
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What a bust today, just one sferic detected in Kerry this afternoon from what I can see.

Tomorrow showers followed by a front crossing the country later in the early evening. ECM showing 600 + j/kg of CAPE late afternoon early evening in the W. The W looks to have the warmest temps tomorrow.

Met Eireann mentions risk of Thunder more associated with the frontal rain I think. Convective weather very quiet about Ireland tomorrow but giving it a low risk. Should see a lot of Lightning and heavy rain around the midlands in the UK tomorrow.

IMO Thursday looks like the most active day with a negative tilted trough and a very cold pool aloft.








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24-04-2019, 21:49   #170
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Didn’t hear any thunder but it was a nice evening for cloudscapes here in Dublin after a mostly dreary afternoon with light rain.
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25-04-2019, 10:38   #171
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 26 Apr 2019

ISSUED 20:42 UTC Wed 24 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough, with main axis over Ireland, will slowly creep eastwards across the British Isles during Thursday. This will be accompanied by a marked cold pool aloft, steepening mid-level lapse rates.

Due to the complex upper pattern, there is still at this stage marked variations in NWP guidance as to the exact track / shape / timing of a surface low and associated area of precipitation (occlusion) which will likely move northwards across England and Wales on Thursday morning. Strong upper forcing and marginal instability may result in a few isolated lightning strikes with this feature, though in general the risk is considered rather low.

The main focus for lightning activity will be within the post-frontal environment, as increasing insolation results in surface heating beneath increasingly dry air aloft. This will increase instability, generating 300-500 J/kg CAPE which combined with areas of frictional convergence will aid in the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

Greatest risk of lightning is likely to be in a zone from SE Wales / SW Midlands northeastwards to NE / E England during the afternoon and early evening - a low-end SLGT has been issued here. A second area of interest could be inland parts of Ireland, though here a lack of shear suggests convection will be both slow moving and rather "pulse-type", with a risk of some localised water issues due to slow storm motion. Cloud cover is also some concern here given close proximity to some frontal rain at times - a low-end SLGT has been issued here.
In general, the best shear will exist across East Anglia / SE England, though here the potential for deep convection is somewhat restricted due to a shorter land track to the surface wind, and perhaps also slow cloud clearance depending on the timing of the earlier frontal rain. Nonetheless, decaying showers/storms from northern France may push into SE England later in the day, but probably with a weakening trend.

In any case, lightning activity is not expected to be as prolific as was the case on Wednesday, and any individual storm may only produce a few sporadic lightning strikes. Many places within the SLGT areas will likely remain void of any lightning. Quite a few reports of generally small hail are likely, perhaps locally up to 1.5cm in diameter. A couple of funnel clouds / weak tornadoes will be possible, primarily in Ireland with the best low-level convergence. Showers/storms will tend to decrease in intensity and coverage as daytime heating subsides.
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25-04-2019, 12:06   #172
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well going by ventusky we're in for some light show this evening
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25-04-2019, 13:08   #173
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Lightning west of Clonakilty
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25-04-2019, 13:10   #174
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Some very intense cells near Fermoy
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25-04-2019, 15:32   #175
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UK getting a nice show.. Again..
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25-04-2019, 15:51   #176
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Two rumbles and some flashes in Limerick a few minutes ago... power flickered as well
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25-04-2019, 15:59   #177
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Very heavy rain in Kildare for the past while
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25-04-2019, 17:37   #178
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Over house a few mins ago
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25-04-2019, 18:35   #179
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Had some nice thundery showers travelling up the M6 earlier with some heavy hail around Ballinasloe.
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25-04-2019, 18:50   #180
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Thunder here in Kildare. Heavens look like they are about to open.
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