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07-03-2019, 22:16   #76
Sleety_Rain
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Originally Posted by Rebelbrowser View Post
Sleety_rain, intrigued by your username. Of all the weather to name yourself in celebration of!
It's because I am so miserable
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07-03-2019, 22:54   #77
sdanseo
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Originally Posted by Sleety_Rain View Post
ECMWF still has a small cohort of ENS members showing extreme wind event (~10-15%)

Can't post images on here anymore...must be getting old.

Long gone are the days of imageshack easy copy n paste
Gyazo is your man. Easy as it gets.
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07-03-2019, 23:37   #78
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That is intriguing Sleety_Rain the way the ARPEGE is holding the track and intesity of that storm it is showing for Sunday. Four runs in a row without any significant deviation ?.GEM looks equally as strong but a bit further S and the UKMO is now showing a low to the North of us on Sunday , the plot thickens !

There is no doubt that when the Jet is this strong it can throw up a surprise at the last moment.

The ARPEGE is a good steady reliable model nearer an event and has outshone other models on a few occasions this year. Better than the GFS at short range , better than ICON and the EURO 4 I would think.It is not as good as the ECM 5 to 4 days out but comes into its own from about 3 to 2 days out I reckon.

Met Eireann did add that there is an uncertainty about how windy and wet it will be on Sunday.

Onwards to the next output in the morning.

What do ye reckon ?


aisling86 might get a storm yet !

Last edited by Meteorite58; 07-03-2019 at 23:40.
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08-03-2019, 10:54   #79
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Eerily quiet this morning in here,
calm before the storm or gone from charts?
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08-03-2019, 17:25   #80
Oscar Bravo
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From Met Eireann

A highly mobile Atlantic regime looks set to dominate our weather pattern through this weekend and the coming week. This will bring a sustained period of unsettled, often very windy and at times wintry weather with showers of hail, sleet and snow.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlanti...ation-pressure

A very strong Jet Stream will help to push some vigorous and potentially disruptive Atlantic weather systems over Ireland during the period.

Strong and blustery winds look likely to feature from Saturday (9th March) through to at least Wednesday (13th) with frequent gales at sea. Sea conditions will be very rough and there will be exceptionally high seas and swell in Atlantic coastal regions at times.

There is certainly potential for warnings to be issued over the coming days, so please do stay up to date with the Met Éireann forecast.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

https://www.met.ie/warnings
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08-03-2019, 21:04   #81
squarecircles
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Tues 12-03-19

Time: 12.00

Last edited by Meteorite58; 08-03-2019 at 21:13. Reason: Add date and time
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08-03-2019, 21:05   #82
squarecircles
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Tues: 12-03-19

Time : 15.00

Last edited by Meteorite58; 08-03-2019 at 21:13.
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08-03-2019, 23:16   #83
Carol25
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Tues: 12-03-19

Time : 15.00
Thanks for those images, just wondering which model is showing those wind speeds? Certainly one to watch at the moment!
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09-03-2019, 10:35   #84
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09-03-2019, 10:43   #85
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09-03-2019, 11:14   #86
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I'm reckoning that this storm will pass further to the north than forecast as they tend to do so more often than not. Having said that, it'll be a very windy period for many especially those further north and west and there's still plenty of scope for this system to track further south which would not be good news.....unless you want damaging winds in your area.

Depending on your location, some varieties of trees are coming into leaf now so the more leaf coverage on a tree, the more surface area which in turn means more chance of branches and limbs coming down. However, I think it will be another week or two before that could be a substantial factor when it comes to dangers with high winds.

For example, there's a large mixed hedge of elder and whitethorn at the side of my back garden. The elder is sprouting its leaves and there's a hint of green now evident in the hedge but the whitethorn is only budding. A lot of the native trees are only budding now as well but just thought I'd mention the subject of trees coming into leaf (as it's happening a bit earlier than normal due to unusual heat a couple of weeks ago) because if we get further forecasted severe storms in the second half of March and into April, then leaf coverage could be a major factor regarding risk of life when classifying the severity of any given storm.
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09-03-2019, 16:07   #87
squarecircles
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latest 12z GFS



potential for a spell of strong winds Monday evening.





before more significant winds on Tuesday.









i think we might need a seperate thread for this potential storm monday/tuesday.
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09-03-2019, 17:16   #88
squarecircles
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Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick

West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h and gusts of 90 to 110kmh, strongest in coastal areas.
Valid: Sunday 10 March 2019 04:00 to Sunday 10 March 2019 23:59
Issued: Saturday 09 March 2019 13:00
Updated: Saturday 09 March 2019 14:05
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09-03-2019, 21:56   #89
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Latest gfs has Tuesday's low pressure a good bit further north, the north west still in the higher end of orange alert but doesn't look too bad everywhere else, could be some nasty thunderstorms though in that NW airflow
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09-03-2019, 22:37   #90
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Between Met Eireann's u turn tonight regarding snowfall and the models downgrading Tuesday's storm potential, it looks like most of us are in for just cool blustery wet weather. A lot of hype from Glasnevin.
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