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Stratosphere watch 2018/19

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    #152
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.27,86.88,205


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    #153
    Reggie.
    Registered Users Posts: 24,363 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    nacho libre wrote: »
    orthographic=-0.27,86.88,205


    Dv1wkMyUwAA4_0w.jpg



    Amy H Butler @DrAHButler

    😠65 of 65 ensemble members with splits by Jan 3 (wind reversal should occur before then).

    So it looks like it will barely hit ireland then? What's the outlook weather wise? Roughly.


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    #154
    Defaulter1831
    Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    Reggie. wrote: »
    So it looks like it will barely hit ireland then? What's the outlook weather wise? Roughly.

    I don't think it works like that Reggie. The more expert will come on and explain. However to my knowledge that's a representation of the displacement in the troposphere. A large chunk of the vortex heading into central Europe. The knock on in the stratosphere takes 2-3 weeks. However with such a displacement of the polar vortex in Europe i feel it greatly enhances our chances of seeing easterlies or north easterlies with Atlantic blocking. That's probably all anyone can say at the moment for Ireland. But the continent will be very cold. So any shift in wind direction and we've a large cold pool near us.


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    #155
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Reggie. wrote: »
    So it looks like it will barely hit ireland then? What's the outlook weather wise? Roughly.

    The outlook is like what the Met Office are saying
    By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

    That pretty much sums it up, a greater than average chance of cold weather for the second half of the month but milder weather is possible too.


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    #156
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    The outlook is like what the Met Office are saying



    That pretty much sums it up, a greater than average chance of cold weather for the second half of the month but milder weather is possible too.
    That is the UK met office?
    That could mean Scotland and northern England.


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    #157
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    irishrover99 wrote: »
    That is the UK met office?
    That could mean Scotland and northern England.

    Yes it is the UK Met Office. The forecast is for the UK but I think the same can be applied for here... a greater than average chance of cold.


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    #158
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Reggie. wrote: »
    So it looks like it will barely hit ireland then? What's the outlook weather wise? Roughly.

    Look at my post in the FI charts thread from earlier for details.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109008364&postcount=3

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #159
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    This is now an official major SSW, the zonal winds at 60N 10hPa have reversed to easterly.

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1080228273001517056

    GEFS today (the operational run differs somewhat though) show the zonal winds failing to recover from this reversion for the next two weeks. The depth of the reversion is not to the extent of February 2018 but it's much longer than those ones. That is an extremely long time for reversed zonal winds.

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1080233159336345602

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #160
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The ECM ENS out to 15 days shows no major effects of the SSW for us, with the NAO trending more positive, if anything.

    First chart:
    Top panels: different scenarios and their respective number of members (Fj.) and this as % of total members.
    Lower panels: Climatology. +NAO, -NAO, Blocking, Ridging.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010200_360.png

    ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean_2019010200_360.png


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    #161
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The UK Met Office have also changed their long term outlook, it still mentions colder weather but it has been pushed back to the third week of January. So we have to see is it simply a delay in the effects of the SSW affecting our region, or is it the case the daughter vortices arising from the split are not going to end up in favourable places for us to have a cold outbreak- a part of the vortex in the Atlantic is not what we want to end up with.


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    #162
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The UK Met Office have also changed their long term outlook, it still mentions colder weather but it has been pushed back to the third week of January. So we have to see is it simply a delay in the effect off the SSW affecting our region, or is it the case the daughter vortices arising from the split are not going to end up in favourable places for us to have a cold outbreak- a part of the vortex in the Atlantic is not what we want to end up with.

    More the case of the fact there is fine margins and not much signal of the impacts propagating to the troposphere to give the greatest response (though what you mentioned could be part of it as the split is predicted to not be in the best favoured spot like February 2018 was).

    This was the GFS for next Monday for instance. You can see some propagation to higher latitudes at 1000hPa but not much to 60N.

    WW4SS0V.png

    Did not post today as the zonal winds have reversed to easterly and it's a case of wait and see. At the same time, the split is beginning to occur (will really get going by the weekend).

    https://twitter.com/MetcastUK/status/1080589084035334144

    I would think some reasonable confidence on the outlook would begin to appear by mid-week next week.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #163
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    More the case of the fact there is fine margins and not much signal of the impacts propagating to the troposphere to give the greatest response (though what you mentioned could be part of it as the split is predicted to not be in the best favoured spot like February 2018 was).


    I would think some reasonable confidence on the outlook would begin to appear by mid-week next week.


    Would the QBO changing from easterly to westerly have any impact on the warming possibly not downwelling properly to the troposphere?


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    #164
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Would the QBO changing from easterly to westerly have any impact on the warming possibly not downwelling properly to the troposphere?

    It would probably shift the cold plunge further east


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    #165
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Further warming at 30hPa in the past day (indication that the warming is still propagating down to the lower stratosphere).

    https://twitter.com/SnowbieWx/status/1080798553360998400

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #166
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    For the next 10 days the split doesn't appear like it will propagate much below 50 hPa, so it remains to be seen if there is any real trop effect. A brief 1040-hPa high sets up over the Pole but doesn't seem to want to establish itself long-term.


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    #167
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I have to admit I am a bit cynical about SSW events and their influence on the ground. Not saying that there isn't something 'in it', but I can't help thinking that there is a lot of hype involved.

    New Moon



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    #168
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I have to admit I am a bit cynical about SSW events and their influence on the ground. Not saying that there isn't something 'in it', but I can't help thinking that there is a lot of hype involved.

    Well better to be cynical than blindly think it will deliver cold here! However I also think it would be naive to think such changes above won’t have any impact.

    The funny thing could be that the charts are now showing some cold possibly arriving just in FI which would be before any SSW impacts!


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    #169
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    A modest split is expected around the 5th jan followed by another significant warning around Russia. CFS is forecasting HP around Greenland around the 17th jan then a proper northern blocking on the 24th


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    #170
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    YanSno wrote: »
    A modest split is expected around the 5th jan followed by another significant warning around Russia. CFS is forecasting HP around Greenland around the 17th jan then a proper northern blocking on the 24th

    Major pinch of salt.


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    #171
    Defaulter1831
    Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Major pinch of salt.

    For the roads you mean Gaoth ;)


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    #172
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Defaulter1831 wrote: »
    For the roads you mean Gaoth ;)

    At some stage, yes, but I wouldn't be buying it in based on the CFS. I keep harping on about it but the best model when it comes to the stratosphere (and pretty much everything else imo) is the ECM, with its 137 vertical levels versus the 64 of the GFS. Until the ECM starts to show something any way exciting we won't be seeing Kermit.de.frog... ;-)


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    #173
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Getting there

    https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1080944401768165378?s=21


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    #174
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Yeah there's a lot of currency from some sources downplaying the potential impacts of this upcoming downwelling
    2013 had little enough effect in Ireland iirc but notable in east and Se England
    So there's that element too

    I've a gut feeling on this though,weather has been doing crazy things lately,it may have more intrigue ahead for us?


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    #175
    Defaulter1831
    Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    At some stage, yes, but I wouldn't be buying it in based on the CFS. I keep harping on about it but the best model when it comes to the stratosphere (and pretty much everything else imo) is the ECM, with its 137 vertical levels versus the 64 of the GFS. Until the ECM starts to show something any way exciting we won't be seeing Kermit.de.frog... ;-)

    In my, 16 years model watching, ECM far the best.

    I started watching around this date 2003 when, on a Sunday, Met Eireann forecast snow on an easterly for Tuesday. It turned out to be a Phantom. An early lesson not heeded.


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    #176
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The UKMO is good too. Until i see the UK Met Office long range update abandoning the idea of frost, fog and snow later in the month I remain hopeful.
    It seems their in house model still expects a cold outbreak, but it could be a slow burner- perhaps it will be the subsequent warmings after the initial split that turn things in our favour or it could be the downwelling from the initial split takes a full three weeks to influence the weather in the troposhere.


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    #177
    Defaulter1831
    Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    NOAA_1_2003010518_2.png

    Just out of curiosity. Here's the synoptics from Sunday 5th Jan when i first started model watching. Ger Fleming warned of snow in Leinster and Munster on the Tuesday. Presume the low was to collide with an easterly.

    As GFS archive only goes back to 2007 and the ECM 2010 i can't see what they predicted for that Tuesday.

    P.S. Sorry i know i'm in the wrong thread, Winter discussion or Stats more appropriate.


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    #178
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note Posters are reminded to stay on topic.

    Off topic posts removed.

    Refrain from discussing other members.

    Please adhere to the forum charter.

    Thanks


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    #179
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The zonal mean zonal wind at 60N 10hPa today is -9.2 m/s which is the lowest for 4th January in the ERA interim record back to 1979. Previous record lowest was -7.0 m/s in 1985.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #180
    Defaulter1831
    Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    The zonal mean zonal wind at 60N 10hPa today is -9.2 m/s which is the lowest for 4th January in the ERA interim record back to 1979. Previous record lowest was -7.0 m/s in 1985.

    1985 had a nice little wintry spell mid month iirc. Snow to all levels.

    NOAA_1_1985011618_2.png


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    #181
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Defaulter1831 wrote: »
    1985 had a nice little wintry spell mid month iirc. Snow to all levels.

    I did a historical post on January 1985 last year on this page of the stats thread as the February 2018 SSW had very similar evolution to the one in early 1985.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=16

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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