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11-07-2018, 09:41   #46
Jpmarn
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Originally Posted by Jpmarn View Post
It was down to 5c at Mt Dillon at one stage in the early hours of this morning.
It was precisely 4.5c low at Mt. Dillon yesterday morning. Dublin Airport tends to be chilly at night. Low of 5.2c there.
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11-07-2018, 16:39   #47
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IMT has slipped back to 17.7, the 10th average was 15.8 C.

MAX remains 28.1 with the daily maximum on 10th at Oak Park, 26.2

A new MIN was recorded with 4.5 at Mountdillon.

PRC remains just a fraction of 1% with 0.6 mm Malin Head, 0.4 mm Belmullet giving the 10th a 3% rating.

SUN total of 67.4 hours (despite a cloudy day at Belmullet) was 205% of normal, boosting the monthly average to 183%.
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12-07-2018, 17:43   #48
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After 11 days, IMT on 17.6, the average on the 11th was 16.8.

MAX for the day 25.3 at Moorepark, MIN 9.0 Mountdillon, monthly extremes remain 28.1 and 4.5.

PRC is still only rounding off to 1% (actually 0.8%) despite the 2.9 mm fall in total at a few stations in the northwest and north.

SUN managed 31.5 hours, mostly thanks to Valentia, about 97% for the day, which brings us back down to around 175% for the month.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 14-07-2018 at 17:04.
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13-07-2018, 16:31   #49
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After 12 days, IMT on 17.4(4) with the 12th 15.7 C. This is as close to normal as we've seen in about three weeks.

MAX for the day was 23.0 at Moorepark and MIN was 8.0 at Claremorris. Monthly values continue 28.1 and 4.5.

PRC for the day was zero leaving the month at 1% of normal.

SUN was only 24.6 hours with three locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin) cloudy. That is about 74% of a normal day's quota and brings the monthly average down to 167% of normal.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 14-07-2018 at 17:05.
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13-07-2018, 23:35   #50
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11-07-2018, 16:39
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A new MIN was recorded with 4.5 at Mountdillon.
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MAX for the day was 23.0 at Moorepark and MIN was 8.0 at Claremorris. Monthly values continue 28.1 and 5.1.
shouldn't that be 4.5°
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14-07-2018, 17:11   #51
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Thanks, I was able to edit in the right values for 11th and 12th reports above (4.5 not 5.1).

Well, after 13 days we have the IMT stalled at 17.4, the 13th averaged 16.8 C.

The MAX and MIN remain 28.1 and 4.5 after the day produced values of 23.8 (Shannon) and 9.6 (Dublin A).

PRC was once again zero and this leaves us at 1% for the month awaiting some minor adjustments this weekend (could we soar into double digits? stay tuned).

SUN total was 45.2 hours, about 137% of normal, and that adjusts the monthly average to 165%.

Next report will be based in part on seven day ag report values so the SUN may get a minor tweaking from those.
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15-07-2018, 15:37   #52
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The IMT clings to 17.4 (17.36) with the 14th at 17.0. The average for the second week was 16.9 C (1.4 above normal).

MAX for the day 26.4 (Casement) and MIN of 8.7 (Dublin, Markree) failed to move those markers (28.1, 4.5).

PRC finally has some business with 16.2 mm at five western and northern locations, still only about 60% of a normal daily amount. This brings the month up to 5% of normal. The second week average was 10% of normal.

SUN was 35.7 hours, about 105% of a normal daily amount, and mostly in the two eastern locations and Cork. This sets the new monthly average at 161%. The weekly average (from ag. report) was 138% (828/600).
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16-07-2018, 15:46   #53
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The IMT has now fallen to 17.3 C, with the 15th at 16.5 C. An average of 16 in the second half of July would bring us to about 16.6 C (this is a rough estimate based on recent model runs).

MAX of 21.1 (Shannon) and MIN of 11.5 (Knock) leave untouched the monthly extremes of 28.1 and 4.5 C.

PRC of 65.3 mm was for the first time in almost a month an above normal daily amount (in fact 233% of normal) which pushes the monthly value up to 20% of normal. Near normal rain in the second half of the month would therefore leave this stat around 60% by month's end. (just saying, not a prediction, think it will be at least 80% to reach 50 at end of month).

SUN took a day off -- 2.9 hours was only 9% of normal. That drops the monthly average to 150% of normal. Near normal amounts of sunshine for the rest of July would leave the month around 125%. Here again, the actual value could be a bit lower or higher, seems unlikely to remain as high as 150% though.

Because of some bold forecasting, we may not need the minimum progression scoring in July. We have PRC forecasts as low as 40% and SUN as high as 165%. I have some doubt that the IMT will finish much higher than our lowest or second lowest forecasts, the heat never really returned full force (yet). Some of the lower MAX forecasts may do best. I'm quite happy to see MIN settled in where it is now.
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17-07-2018, 17:54   #54
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The IMT is barely 17.2 after 16 days (17.16) and the 16th average was 15.2, slightly below normal for a change.

MAX for the day 21.2 (OP, PP) and MIN 7.9 (Mullingar), no change to monthly (28.1, 4.5).

PRC for the day 1.6 mm (7% of normal) so that leaves the month at 19% of normal.

SUN was 23.0 hours, about 70% of normal, which drops the monthly average down to 145%.
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18-07-2018, 16:59   #55
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After 17 days, the IMT on 17.1 with the 17th on 15.5 (the mean for July also).

MAX of 21.8 (PP) and MIN of 8.5 (Claremorris) leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 4.5.

PRC of 4.8 mm (17% of normal) leaves the monthly value at 19% of normal. Some 4-5 mm falls at stations not in our grid such as Knock, Markree and Moorepark.

SUN continues to come back to reality with only 12.7 hours (38% of normal) which now leaves the month at 139%.
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19-07-2018, 17:22   #56
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After 18 days, the IMT is a nice consensual 17.0 C, with the 18th on 15.7 C.

MAX for the day 21.9 at Casement and Phoenix Park, MIN 8.0 at Markree, leaving the month unchanged (28.1, 4.5).

PRC just 0.1 mm at Belmullet in our contest grid, so that allows the month to drift back down to 18% of normal.

SUN 35.6 hours, about 106% of normal, but this allows another drop for the month, to 137%.

I will be on the road soon, but likely to have internet access the first few days (visiting family) so it's probably going to be 24th to 30th that will need some updates. If anyone wants to volunteer to continue these updates, I can send you a PM about how to do them. I will be on contest duty for the 31st of July and 1st of August then likely gone from the net for 21 days to 22nd of August, so there again, August contest updates would be appreciated.
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20-07-2018, 16:49   #57
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The IMT continues its steady downward slide, now 16.9 after 19 days. The 19th average was 15.3 C.

MAX of 23.1 at both Casement and Oak Park, MIN of 6.6 at Casement, leaving month unchanged (28.1, 4.5).

PRC on 19th was 4.6 mm at Belmullet and Malin Head, amounting to 16% of normal for the grid and that leaves the month at 18%. The rain today may push this value up into the 20s.

SUN on 19th was 47.2 hours, about 142% of normal, and that halts the steady fall of monthly sunshine at 137%.

Looking at current guidance, could imagine IMT might recover slightly to around 17.1 (end of month), chances appear modest for either MAX or MIN to change, PRC could fight its way to 50% and SUN seems unlikely to increase and could fall back into 120% range. Will post some highly speculative provisional scoring based on those estimates, mainly to save myself some screen time at end of month when actually scoring.

So make of those provisional scores what you wish, more of a "what if" situation (when I post them in a few minutes) ...
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20-07-2018, 18:00   #58
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Hypothetical scoring for July 2018

See previous post for discussion ... just putting up a table that I can edit faster when I have limited time on line around 1st of August.


FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 6th loc'n __ TOTAL

Estimated values ___ 17.1_28.1_ 4.5_050_120 __ 25.3_OP



sryanbruen _________22 _ 20*_ 11 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 90

waterways _________ 24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 _______ 80

Rameire ___________ 21 _ 08*_ 20 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 79


__ Consensus ______ 24 _ 10*_ 20 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 79


M.T. Cranium ______ 25 _ 14*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 74

JCX_BXC __________24 _ 13*_ 14 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 73

Jpmarn ___________ 22 _ 12*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 73

john mac __________21 _ 17*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 71

pauldry ___________ 23 _ 10*_ 13 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 71

Bsal ______________23 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

DOCARCH _________ 20 _ 16*_ 14 _ 13 _ 01 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 71

Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 10*_ 15 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 70

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___21 _ 15*_ 13 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 76-6=70

Dacogawa _________ 24 _ 03*_ 18 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 67

MrSkinner _________ 24 _ 11*_ 16 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 65

sunflower3 _________24 _ 13*_ 00 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 ____ 63

dasa29 ___________ 24 _ 10*_ 00 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 62

mickger844posts ____21 _ 08*_ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 60

Rikand ____________24 _ 04*_ 15 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 2 _______ 60

sdanseo ___________24 _ 00*_ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 60

adam240610 _______13 _ 18*_ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 60

BLIZZARD7 ________ 19 _ 01*_ 12 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 59

Joe Public _________ 23 _ 05*_ 14 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 56

200motels _________22 _ 02*_ 13 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 53



__ NormaL ________ 09 _ 19*_ 10 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 50
______________________________________________________________________________


* MAX scoring from minimum progression. Highest raw score is 17 (sryanbruen) ... if MAX reaches 28.3 to 28.5, raw score will be 19 or 20 and this could drop the rest of the scores (only half of boosted points available if maximum raw score is 19 or 20 in this category). Similar comment if the MAX gets close to any higher value although as that happens, raw scores may not need boosting (after application of this rule, raw score if higher will count).

So, while sryanbruen will be hoping my PRC and SUN estimates are on target, and MAX stays below 29, he can actually improve the high score already shown with (a) lower IMT and (b) lower MIN. Of course these scores are somewhat approximate at this point, so good luck if you have a high score from these estimates. I will edit this table if possible (at least once perhaps) as later data adjust the estimates. Then the actual numbers will be generated on August 1st.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
______________________________________________________________________________


NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

* Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).
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21-07-2018, 15:22   #59
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IMT still on 16.9 after 20th, when the daily mean was 16.8 C.

MAX for the day 22.5 at Cork, MIN was 11.6 at Knock, monthly values remain 28.1, 4.5 C.

PRC for the day was 59.5 mm which is about 210% of the daily normal amount; this changes the monthly average to 28% of normal.

SUN managed only 1.6 hours (5%) which results in the monthly average dropping to 130% of normal.

... hoping to have a bit of internet time the next few days as we visit family before taking off for the back country around the 24th, so I may be able to update these reports ...
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22-07-2018, 15:07   #60
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IMT remains on 16.9, 21st was 16.4 and third week 15.9 (0.2 above normal).

MAX 23.9 (Moorepark) and MIN 9.8 (Gurteen) -- month remains on 28.1, 4.5.

PRC 2.5 mm (9%) drops the month to 26%.... third week average 75% of normal.

SUN 27.3 hours (83%) drops the month to 128% ... third week 75% also.
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