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04-07-2018, 03:12   #31
M.T. Cranium
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Okay thanks, they were later than usual with it, probably adding up all those sunshine hours.

The provisional scores are the final scores ... all temp data confirmed, PRC was actually 36% (same outcome for scoring) and sunshine averaged 8.02 hours a day at the six stations, the mean is 5.5, so the percentage is closer to 145% than my estimate of 140%. I will leave the sunshine scoring alone since the only other alternative is to drop everyone by one point, and the June scoring is already rather low.

So that being said, the table back a few posts from the end of the June thread is our final scoring, and it's on to the annual update ...

will edit that in as you sleep (or toss in the searing heat) ...

and will copy this report to the June thread where it actually belongs.
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04-07-2018, 13:48   #32
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Meanwhile, have now posted the annual update over in June, with best 5 of 6 to ease us towards the eventual reality of the best 10 of 12 (or if you're Lumi, the best 10 of 10). The one outlier in that list is BLIZZARD7 who drops one very low score to reach third place, otherwise the best 5 of 6 scores don't stray too far from the order of all six (Lumi had missed one already so that score is also well ahead of the rank for all six).

So to get back to July, the IMT now on 17.7 with yesterday managing 18.3 C.

The new MAX is 28.0 (Shannon) while the daily MIN of 8.2 (Dub A) left the monthly value (6.3) intact.

Another dry day leaves the PRC at a rather skimpy 1% of normal.

SUN was unstoppable at 92.3 hours, about 285% of normal. That brings the month to 232% of normal.

I feel like I may need a strong coffee to check the reality of these numbers, after all it is but 0547h here with the sun finally making a bit of an attempt to burn off the stratus. My comparable values are 13.5 _ 18.0 _ 12.0 _ 250 _ 010
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05-07-2018, 12:06   #33
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IMT remains on 17.7 with the 4th average of 17.8 C.

New MAX of 28.1 (Mountdillon) and new MIN of 5.1 (Markree).

Another essentially dry day (0.1 mm Cork in the contest grid and 0.7 mm Moorepark not in the grid), still rounds off to 1% of normal PRC.

SUN took a minor holiday with "only" 67.3 hours (200%) which leaves the monthly average at 224% of normal.
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06-07-2018, 14:44   #34
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IMT on 17.6 after the 5th cooled off to 16.9 for an average.

MAX stays 28.1 as the 5th had the lowest maximum in several weeks, 24.9. The daily minimum of 9.1 (Malin Head) left the previous value of 5.1 intact.

PRC remains 1% with the 5th at 2% mainly due to 0.8 mm falling at Malin Head, also 0.1 mm at Belmullet so the grid reached 0.9 mm which is close to 3% of normal. Markree and Newport outside our contest grid also had measurable rainfalls of fractions of 1 mm.

SUN now on 211% of normal with the 5th producing 52.7 hours which is about 160% of normal.

For the bonus question, today's maximum, the 2 p.m. leaders are Newport (24) followed by Oak Park (23) and several at 22. Perhaps somebody will update this as I plan on sleeping through the next two reports.
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06-07-2018, 15:36   #35
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Oak Park reporting 24c
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06-07-2018, 16:25   #36
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At 1600h Oak Park and Casement at 24 C.
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06-07-2018, 19:33   #37
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Carlow Weather is reporting Carlow at 24.5c for today, not sure if thats an official Met temp.
But Carlow weather's own temp was up to 25.4.
Information taken from Twitter.
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07-07-2018, 13:59   #38
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IMT on 17.7 C after sixth, the average for the day was 18.3 C.

MAX for the day was 25.3 (Oak Park) and MIN 7.8 at Malin Head.. (no changes to monthly values of 28.1, 5.1).

PRC for the day was 0.7 mm at Cork, another day at 3% leaving the month at 1% of normal.

SUN for the first time in weeks fell short of normal, 31.6 hours is about 98% of normal, so the month is down to 185%.

The contest bonus is the MAX for 6th. Three points for correct location (Oak Park 25.3), two for second or third highest (Mountdillon 24.8, Casement 24.7) and one point if your pick beat or tied Markree (21.4) -- these stations not already mentioned did so -- Athenry, Ballyhaise, Claremorris, Dublin, Finner Camp, Dunsany, Gurteen, Johnstown Castle, Moore Park, Mullingar, Newport, Phoenix Park, Roches Point, and Shannon). All of our picks managed at least that.

The scoring on temperatures will be as follows (superbonus additions noted based on location) ...

7 pts _ Sryanbruen 25.2 (+2), waterways 25.4, Rameire 25.5 (+2), Pauldry 25.0 (+2) _ error range 0.1 to 0.3

6 pts _ Tae laidir 14.8, sunflower3 (+1), dasa29, Bsal, Kindred Spirit (all 26.0) _ error range 0.5 to 0.7

5 pts _ John mac (26.1), dacogawa, adam240610, Con Sensus (26.2), JCX BXC (26.3) _ error range 0.8 to 1.0

4 pts _ DOCARCH (26.7) _ error 1.4

3 pts _ Jpmarn (23.5), sdanseo (27.1) _ error 1.8

2 pts _ MrSkinner (27.8), mickger844posts (27.9), Rikand (28.0) _ error range 2.5 to 2.7

1 pt _ 200motels and BLIZZARD7 (28.8), MTC and Joe Public (28.9) _ error range 3.5 to 3.6
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08-07-2018, 02:49   #39
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Just a clarification on bonus scoring as listed above, the points listed are just for temperature, anyone who said Oak Park gets 3 more points, and those who said Casement or Mountdillon get two more, while the rest all qualify for one more (every station guessed beat Markree).

The superbonus is then added on to scores of 9 or 10 -- if you have 7+3 you get 2 more points, if you have any of 7+2 or 6+3 you get one more point.

As I had one PM about this, I thought maybe other forecasters were thrown off by my list, it's only the temperature scores out of seven. Everyone on that list gets additional points for location as well as (in some cases) the listed superbonus points.
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08-07-2018, 16:12   #40
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After 7th, IMT 17.8 ... daily IMT was 18.6

No PRC other than 0.4 mm Belmullet, PRC remains 1%.

SUN 42.4 hours, about 130% brings down average to 177%.

Max on 7th was 26.6 (OP) and min was 9.5 (Markree) (no new MAX/MIN).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 09-07-2018 at 02:46.
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09-07-2018, 14:58   #41
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After eight days, the IMT on 17.9(2) with the 8th managing 18.8 C.

The MAX yesterday was 27.2 at OP and the MIN 10.2 at Claremorris (monthly values remain 28.1 and 5.1).

PRC was 0.2 mm at Malin Head, leaving us with the 1% monthly average. A few non-grid locations had small amounts, Athenry at 0.8 mm.

SUN total of 32.2 hours is very close to the 33 hours I am using as a daily normal for six locations (98%), and that brings the running total down to 167% of normal. The ag report (which I forgot to check yesterday) has 190% for 2-8 July and similar indications of average amounts, my log says 160% for first which I just checked out, so I am revising my running total to 185% of normal and looking through my math from 2nd to 7th to see if I can spot an error to explain that discrepancy. The PRC estimate of 1% matches the ag report.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 09-07-2018 at 15:11.
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10-07-2018, 09:23   #42
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After nine days the IMT stays on 17.9 with the 9th at 17.6 C.

MAX yesterday was 25.2 at Moorepark, while the MIN was 8.0 at Markree. These leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 5.1 C.

PRC was essentially zero (0.1 mm at Knock) so that our 1% monthly average is holding steady.

SUN on 9th was 47.5 hours, about 142% of normal. That leaves the (adjusted) monthly total around 180% of normal.

_______________________________________

some may have noticed that I mentioned a month-long absence in the forecast thread (21 July to 21 August) ... I hope to be able to maintain some basic level of contest updates, but these daily updates may not be possible after 21st or during most of August. I should be able to do the basic minimum of scoring July and posting August, this is not designed to be a total absence from the internet but that will happen for several days at a time with rest days with internet access, so I won't totally disappear, unless I fall off a cliff or something.
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10-07-2018, 09:23   #43
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After nine days the IMT stays on 17.9 with the 9th at 17.6 C.

MAX yesterday was 25.2 at Moorepark, while the MIN was 8.0 at Markree. These leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 5.1 C.

PRC was essentially zero (0.1 mm at Knock) so that our 1% monthly average is holding steady.

SUN on 9th was 47.5 hours, about 142% of normal. That leaves the (adjusted) monthly total around 180% of normal.

_______________________________________

some may have noticed that I mentioned a month-long absence in the forecast thread (21 July to 21 August) ... I hope to be able to maintain some basic level of contest updates, but these daily updates may not be possible after 21st or during most of August. I should be able to do the basic minimum of scoring July and posting August, this is not designed to be a total absence from the internet but that will happen for several days at a time with rest days with internet access, so I won't totally disappear, unless I fall off a cliff or something.
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10-07-2018, 13:21   #44
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There was 6C at Dublin Airport on the 4am reports this morning.
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10-07-2018, 15:19   #45
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It was down to 5c at Mt Dillon at one stage in the early hours of this morning.
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