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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-15
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Apr 2018
ISSUED 14:00 UTC Sat 14 Apr 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will approach from the Atlantic on Sunday, cold pool aloft serving to steepen mid-level lapse rates - primarily over Ireland. A couple of occlusion/trough features will provide the focus for bands of showery rain moving NE-wards through the day, turning increasingly convective in nature in response to some diurnal heating. Some sporadic / isolated lightning is possible from the strongest cells - particular focus is given to the north Midlands into Yorkshire / Lincolnshire (and perhaps Norfolk) where low-level convergence may enhance some forced ascent, but lightning coverage is not expected to be significant enough to upgrade to SLGT.0 -
Looks fairly low chance but could have a few sferics show up overland in the afternoon early evening I would have thought with some big showers, more chance perhaps in the Western half of the country.
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Looks like it could get lively over in the UK tomorrow . Interesting to watch it develop.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 21 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 Apr 2018
ISSUED 18:44 UTC Fri 20 Apr 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
... SATURDAY MORNING ...
Elevated showers and thunderstorms may develop on Saturday morning over the English Channel and drift north, as high ThetaW airmass advects from France into S / SW England and begins to destabilise. There is some uncertainty as to how much destabilisation may take place at this stage of the day given only subtle forcing, and then the exact track of such storms given large model guidance spread - generally Devon and Dorset, but perhaps as far east as West Sussex and as far west as Cornwall. Any storms that do form will track to the N or NW with time, into S Wales / SW Midlands by late morning/midday, though possibly with a weakening trend.
... SATURDAY AFTERNOON ...
A complex picture, with ongoing elements of elevated convection drifting north associated with plume axis across Wales and the Midlands. Forecast profiles exhibit a capping warm nose around 850-900mb; however, provided there are enough cloud breaks to provide sufficient insolation, then there is scope to erode this cap and allow surface-based thunderstorms to develop. The focus is primarily over N + E Wales, N + NW Midlands into northern England, aided by developing low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing. This very much dependent on how much mid/upper level cloud will be present from earlier elevated convection approaching from the south. Uncertainty also exists over the north/south position of areas that may be affected, and the MDT issued may need to be adjusted southwards, depending on trends.
Shear is a little on the weak side, but given the degree of potential instability (800-1,200 J/kg CAPE) hail up to 2.0cm in diameter will be possible from any stronger thunderstorms, along with frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50mph) and some localised surface water flooding given 25-30mm PWAT.
... SATURDAY EVENING / NIGHT ...
Stronger forcing will arrive during the evening hours as the Atlantic upper trough approaches from the W - this will likely result in an increasing coverage of (mostly elevated) thunderstorms as the ThetaW plume continues to destabilise. This will happen in a rather sporadic fashion along an eastward-advancing N-S orientated line, and hence difficult to pinpoint exact areas where thunderstorms are most likely to occur.
There is some model agreement for thunderstorms to erupt over the English Channel and drift NE across areas from Hampshire eastwards to Kent - given the magnitude of instability, lightning will be frequent with any thunderstorms that do develop, with the potential for some hail from the strongest cells. A MDT may need to be introduced to these areas if confidence improves a little.
It is possible some thunderstorms could develop as far north as E/SE Scotland, or at least offshore from there over the North Sea.0 -
There's a decent-looking thunderstorm formed North of Cherbourg just now:
https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair
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Should produce lightning when it passes over the warm land.
https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/987723333851463680
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/987732775418695680
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Record of lightning up until this morning moving up from France into Southern the UK and a band of convection moving into Wales and travelling up through Northern counties. . Thunderstorms now moving out over the North Sea . Possibility of thunderstorms again today , more so in the SE of the UK.
Some low possibility of a few sporadic thunder showers over the Northern counties of Ireland today.
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A Convective outlook tomorrow with the passage of a trough over Ireland with sunny spells and should have big showers of rain and hail move across the country and perhaps some sporadic thunderstorms possible. Fresh wind from the SW /W. Some very cold uppers passing over the country. Would have thought a better chance for thunder on the Eastern half as diurnal heating takes effect in the afternoon, cape and lapse rates not that impressive but still a chance of a few sparks perhaps. Best DLS in the S.
AROME model showing convective gusts associated with the showers I believe. Not much to go on compared to the recent storms in the UK but good practice whilst awaiting the big one here in Ireland
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For the record, nice cloud pics caught by Met Eireann.
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/989176081688285186
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/9891814395760844810 -
Looks like around the Munster region has the best chance of some thunder today although looks limited going by the charts.. Already seeing Cumulus bubbling up to congestus size inland from me here in Kerry this morning. Not much wind so slow moving cloud, where it rains could be quite heavy with hail possible. Interesting that temperatures set to drop very low in the afternoon in Munster, would presume from very cold heavy rain /hail and by then from lack of sunlight also ?
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