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13-10-2019, 07:59   #5401
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 13 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 25% above normal in many areas, possibly 50% or more above in west Munster.
-- Sunshine will average 80 to 110 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start with some outbreaks of rain in Leinster and partly cloudy skies in most other areas. A few scattered outbreaks of light rain will develop in those initially dry locations while the early rain will drift further north while weakening. Highs 11 to 14 C. Rainfalls 3 to 7 mm.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers in most areas, but moderate to heavy rain may develop near the southwest coasts. This will move gradually north and also will spread further east by morning. Lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will likely be quite wet in parts of Munster and possibly south Leinster, although the situation remains a little uncertain; a rather small-scale low is expected to loop around near Kerry and some of its heavier rain may remain off the coast. There is potential for 15-30 mm rainfalls whether on land or not, and some local flooding if this hits higher terrain in west Munster. Many other areas could have a largely dry day with outbreaks of scattered showers giving smaller amounts further north. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will start out dry in many areas but rain will spread in from the Atlantic and it will become rather windy, southerly gales near the west coast and 50-80 km/hr further east. About 15-25 mm rain can be expected with this front, and temperatures will be steady 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy, blustery with southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, showers with some hail possible. Highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers and cool west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, lows around 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

There is little change in the unsettled pattern beyond the end of the week, although one or two dry days may come along in the mix as the distance between systems looks to be increasing further ahead. Some very cold air is lurking over Scandinavia at times during the second week of the forecast period and could be making a run towards Britain if not Ireland later in the month.

My local weather was partly cloudy to overcast but dry, and cool with highs of about 7 C. There are some clear intervals tonight here and glimpses of the full moon, which is more precisely timed for Sunday at 2209h IST (2109 UTC). You may get a view of it in some places this evening.
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14-10-2019, 08:26   #5402
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Monday, 14 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall (with a heavy rainfall underway) from this point on will average about 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring further downpours in most areas apart from Ulster, which will see scattered outbreaks of light rain. These heavier rainfalls will eventually total 20-40 mm with some localized flooding in parts of Munster and Connacht. Slight clearing may take place in west Munster by afternoon, otherwise mainly cloudy to sunset. Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few lingering showers near the south coast. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will start out dry in many areas but rain will spread in from the Atlantic and it will become rather windy, southerly gales near the west coast and 50-80 km/hr further east. About 15-25 mm rain can be expected with this front, and temperatures will be steady 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy, blustery with southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, showers with some hail possible. Highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with rain at times, becoming heavy by evening. Quite windy especially near the south coast, southerly gales are expected with gusts to near 100 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will bring an end to the heavier rain and the winds will turn more northwesterly with rain turning to showers. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

The outlook for the following weekend is also unsettled, windy and cool. There may be a slight improvement for Monday 21st, then yet another windy and wet frontal system is expected and potential for more heavy rains to develop mid-week.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a high near 8 C.
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15-10-2019, 07:57   #5403
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Tuesday, 15 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values (which are highs of 14 and lows of 5).
-- Rainfall will average about 25% above normal but much of that could fall later today, tonight, and again on Thursday into Friday morning.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with mist or fog in places, and drizzle in some central counties. Winds will gradually increase to southeast 40-60 km/hr by afternoon with stronger gusts near south coast. Rain will spread into west Munster and then Connacht around mid-day and will advance slowly eastward. Highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT will be wet and windy with the rain gradually reaching the east coast, ending there after sunrise, with total amounts of 15-30 mm for most regions. Winds will ease somewhat during the night. Lows 6 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will become brighter with passing showers in a moderate, occasionally brisk westerly wind backing to southwest later. There will be some thunder and hail in a few spots and 3-5 mm additional rainfalls. Cool with highs only 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to start, then overcast later with rain developing in strong southerly winds, 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C. About 10-20 mm rain likely (extending through the overnight to Friday morning).

FRIDAY will see the rain more confined to the east, and southwest gales near coasts will veer to westerly around mid-day. It will remain rather chilly with lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds becoming west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with passing showers and some risk of hail accumulations especially on higher terrain. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will bring some slow improvements with less cloud and shower activity, but it will remain chilly in a moderate northwest wind, lows about 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY could be a bit more pleasant for a time with some sunny intervals and southwest winds bringing temperatures up slightly to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for another frontal band of rain around Tuesday but after that there may be a slight change to more settled but chilly weather, as higher pressure builds in. The end of the month could turn considerably colder for a time.

My winter outlook is available, the summary would be rather wet and mild in the south, with increased chances for colder conditions and snow or ice at times further north due to a likely "battleground" scenario where Atlantic storms clash with higher pressure taking up frequent residence in Scandinavia this winter. I think this may mean a harsh winter in some parts of central Europe and perhaps even northern Britain, with Ulster and some other northern counties possibly on the colder side of the dividing line at times. But further south, the main theme may be stormy with wind and rain from Atlantic frontal systems. This is a preliminary outlook and I am going to issue a more detailed outlook in November once we can see how things are setting up for the early part of the winter.

My local weather on a holiday Monday here was sunny and pleasant with highs about 12-14 C.
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16-10-2019, 07:21   #5404
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Wednesday, 16 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 degrees below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in most areas, most of this will be on Thursday-Friday.
-- Sunshine will also average near normal and possibly above by 25% as today, Sunday and Monday appear set to contribute good amounts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out mostly sunny in the east, partly cloudy further west. Some vigorous showers will develop near Atlantic coasts especially over western sides of mountains, and these will feed sporadically into central counties, at times reaching the east coast. One or two could produce hail and thunder. It will remain rather cool with moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast with intervals of light rain, lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with intervals of rain becoming heavier towards afternoon and evening. Moderate southerly winds could turn into gales near the south coast, otherwise these will be in the 50 to 80 km/hr range. Highs will reach 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY MORNING will see further heavy rainfalls, and total amounts of 30-40 mm could fall in some parts of west Munster and Connacht, 15-30 mm further east. Lows overnight will be near 8 C.

FRIDAY will see a shift in the wind direction around mid-day in the west and towards evening in the east, as the southerly winds veer to westerly 40-60 km/hr. Some partly cloudy skies will follow the wind shift then more showers are likely to develop. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and cool with northwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, passing showers, one or two with hail, and highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, not as windy, with more isolated showers, but still a risk of hail. Hail or snow showers may begin to accumulate on summits. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with light northerly winds backing to westerly, and a morning frost seems likely, so that lows will be -2 to +3 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week calls for another episode of frontal rain and gusty winds, followed by some colder weather in general, possibly quite cold at times towards the end of the month.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast but mild with a high near 14 C.
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17-10-2019, 07:56   #5405
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Thursday, 17 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 degrees below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (most of that will fall today and tomorrow though, so a wet start).
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal thanks to generous amounts from Sunday to Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out reasonably bright in the east with a few sunny breaks, isolated showers and moderate southerly winds. Further west it will be more cloudy and bands of heavier showers, some with thunder, will gradually move further into the central counties. Some intervals of stronger gusty southwest winds may develop (50-80 km/hr) although it doesn't look like these winds will be a constant feature. Highs will reach about 14 C.

TONIGHT will bring further outbreaks of rain, with accumulations from today added in approaching 20-25 mm in places, but it will stay fairly mild at 7-8 C. The strong southwest wind gusts will become more confined to the southeast coastal regions as slack pressure gradients move into western regions with the centre of low pressure moving in.

FRIDAY will see that low pressure drifting further east, as it does so, rain will ease off to showers from west to east, and winds will gradually turn more westerly. About 5-10 mm further rainfall can be expected in occasional showers. Highs will be 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will become quite chilly with a brisk northerly wind of 50-70 km/hr, especially over the eastern coasts and any parts of Connacht and Ulster exposed to the Atlantic. Some inland counties may not feel as windy but even so, temperatures will be held down to around 10 or 11 C in most areas, with bands of squally showers likely to form in the flow off the Atlantic. Some streamers of hail showers may develop and make contact with the east coast at least south of Dublin as winds may become a bit more northeasterly at times. A few sunny intervals will be in the mix too, for west Munster in particular. Morning lows 3 to 5 C and afternoon highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will continue the same theme with a reduction in the wind speeds and therefore less shower development, although a few are still expected. Partly cloudy skies will prevail, and temperatures will continue cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY could have some frosts to start, and it will be a bright and mainly dry day with just light northerly breezes backing to westerly over the northern and western counties by afternoon. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

TUESDAY a weak front will be approaching the northwest coasts and it will become mostly cloudy in Connacht and Ulster while remaining partly cloudy to sunny at times in Munster and Leinster. A moderate southwest breeze will develop after a relatively calm start to the day with more frosts expected but mainly confined to the inland south. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for a few days of mostly cloudy but milder weather in southwest breezes, highs around 15 C. Weather models have been struggling to resolve what might be happening past mid-week (23rd or 24th), the European model was showing some intense storm development by end of the week (in its earlier runs today) but I just saw that it has backed off that idea and is now more in line with other guidance showing another episode of rain followed by colder weather. That intense storm concept may come back into the forecast though, since changes at that time frame can go back and forth for a few consecutive model runs then fix on one solution.

My local weather on Wednesday remained overcast and rather mild with a few spots of light rain at times, probably no more than 1 mm and the freezing level here has moved back up to near mountain summit levels with temperatures at my elevation being around 15 C.
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18-10-2019, 07:41   #5406
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Friday, 18 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 degrees below normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 25% above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some scattered showers although the system is weak enough that some dry intervals may develop. Now only expecting perhaps 5-10 mm rainfalls. Brisk southwest winds will be confined to the southeast coast and even there will die out by afternoon. A slack wind regime will prevail elsewhere as a low pressure centre drifts across the country later today into tonight. Highs will reach 14 C.

TONIGHT will continue with the theme of slack winds, scattered light showers, with lows falling to about 7 C.

SATURDAY the northerly flow behind the low will kick in just around sunrise or shortly thereafter, and this will generate some bands of showers that could contain some hail and thunder in a few spots. The southeast coast and north Connacht are two areas more likely to see frequent showers, other places may have long dry intervals and some sunshine. It will feel quite cold in the northerly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr and highs will only reach 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will be similar, with perhaps slightly less blustery north winds but also a scattering of hail or rain showers in a few places. The morning lows will be as cold as 1 to 4 C and afternoon highs about 9 to 12 C again.

MONDAY morning could see some frost and patchy ground fog, watch for alerts about poor driving conditions closer to the time. The mist will clear most areas by mid-morning and some sunshine should follow. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 10 to 13 C. Light northerly winds will fall off to near calm by evening.

TUESDAY could see more frost and fog in the inland south and southeast. Further north a weak front will be producing partly to mostly cloudy skies so there is less chance for frost and fog to develop there. The day will become mostly cloudy with moderate south to southwest breezes and some chance of light rain in the west mainly. Lows -1 C to +4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for milder weather in a south to southwest flow, increasing chances for some rain at times by mid-week and towards the weekend of the 26th-27th, with highs generally in the 13 to 16 C range. The risk of a colder spell is still in the mix although chances have decreased somewhat.

A wild card in the weather situation will be the development of Tropical Depression 16 in the Gulf of Mexico. If you missed it, T.D. 15 came and went near the Cabo Verde islands recently, and there was one earlier numbered depression that did not develop into a named storm, so this T.D. 16 would become Nestor, the fourteenth named storm for the year if it gets a name while approaching northwest Florida by the weekend. It could move through into the Atlantic and energize the rather sluggish storm track in the western Atlantic now that a gale over New England has dissipated in eastern Canada. My local weather meanwhile was overcast with light rain and highs near 10 C.
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19-10-2019, 07:57   #5407
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Saturday, 19 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 deg below normal values but will be cooler than that in the first half of the interval, rising to somewhat above normal by about Wednesday.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values but a lot of that is based on a rather speculative outcome next Friday when a substantial rainfall could occur. Until then it should be relatively dry overall with localized heavy showers near east coast and in parts of the northwest.
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal which does not take much effort at this rather cloudy stage of the year when 2-3 hours a day is normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather chilly with brisk northerly winds setting in, probably before mid-day in most areas. There will be a patchwork of clear and cloudy sky conditions but bands of showers will form and those may be more persistent near the southeast coast and over north Connacht and down the west coast to Kerry. Northerly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr will be driving those showers inland or along parallel coasts. Further inland the wind may not be quite as blustery. Highs only 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see a few remnant showers as the bands weaken, while any inland locations having clear skies for a while could see patchy ground frost developing, with lows generally about 1 to 4 C. Rather strong north to northeast winds will still be felt near the east coast and some other exposed coastal areas, but inland it should become much less breezy.

SUNDAY will also be quite breezy during the daytime with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, chilly north winds of 40 to 60 km/hr, and a few isolated shower bands that could produce hail in a few places. Highs only 9 to 12 C.

MONDAY will start out with a frost in some inland districts and ground fog or mist is likely, then the sun should clear that away and yield a fine day with light winds, but quite chilly in the shade. Lows will be -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will still be clear enough in the south and east for localized frost and fog inland, but cloud further west and north will keep the overnight temperatures milder. The day will see increasing cloud in all areas. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are currently looking rather mild, generally dry in the south and east, with some light rain at times in the west and north, in moderate south to southwest winds. Lows will be 6 to 9 C and highs about 14 to 17 C.

There are some indications that the mid-week mild spell will break down on Friday with heavy rainfalls from the south. This is an evolving situation and it could change considerably. The general trend in guidance is for colder weather to set in after that event, although there are different ideas about from which direction the cold might approach, northwest to northeast being possible options.

Tropical Storm Nestor did actually form earlier on Friday and will make a landfall later today in Florida, thankfully not a huge event like last year's major hurricane Michael.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with glimpses of sun and passing light rain showers, with a rather mild high of 12 C (at this altitude, probably closer to 16 C in the valleys).
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20-10-2019, 07:43   #5408
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Sunday, 20 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, cold at first with a gradual increase after Tuesday to above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, but most of that will happen around Friday.
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue breezy and cool with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, chilly north winds of 40 to 60 km/hr, and a few isolated shower bands that could produce hail in a few places. Highs only 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will bring clearing skies and light winds, with frost likely in many places, lows -2 to +3 C. Some ground fog or mist will develop, expect some slippery road conditions in places on Monday morning.

MONDAY will start out with a frost in some inland districts and ground fog or mist is likely, then the sun should clear that away and yield a fine day with light winds, but quite chilly in the shade. Lows will be -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will still be clear enough in the south and east for localized frost and fog inland, but cloud further west and north will keep the overnight temperatures milder. The day will see increasing cloud in all areas. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be mostly cloudy and mild with occasional light rain and southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

THURSDAY will continue cloudy and mild with rain at times, south winds 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY could bring some heavy rainfalls and strong east winds as a low approaches from the south, followed by a strong westerly flow when it passes. Temperatures will be steady near 12 C in this scenario. However, forecasting models are struggling with the details so this can only be regarded as an approximation of what might happen.

The outlook calls for a cold but dry interval around the weekend of 26th-27th, then more rain moving up from the south. It's possible that the frontal systems will evolve differently and that the Friday rain may have more tendency to merge with the Monday event with less of a role for the dry high pressure in between. So regard this situation as "evolving" at this point.

Tropical Storm Nestor made a landfall in Florida after already losing its tropical status while over the Gulf of Mexico. What's left of Nestor is slugging through Georgia with moderate amounts of rain and wind for the southeast in general. My local weather on Saturday continued mostly cloudy with brief sprinkles of rain and temperatures in the 8-10 C range. We are getting a fairly steady leaf fall now although it's still quite colourful as this attached picture will illustrate.

Attached Images
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21-10-2019, 07:57   #5409
M.T. Cranium
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Monday, 21 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, starting from about 2 or 3 below average at first, and ending up that much above by Thursday, with further variations to come.
-- Rainfalls may amount to near normal after Friday's expected rainfalls. There could also be more by Sunday.
-- Sunshine will probably manage to outperform normal this week and could end up 50% above average in some places.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some patchy frost and fog or mist especially in low-lying areas near lakes and rivers (which are now much warmer than the cold air), drive with caution in these areas. Most of coastal and urban sections of the country will be too mild for frost and eventually all areas will recover to about 10 degrees under a bright sky with some patchy higher cloud layers. The afternoon highs will reach 12 to 14 C. It won't be windy today and some places will remain almost calm.

TONIGHT will bring a return of some frost and fog patches mainly in the inland south and southeast. Cloud spreading into the north and west will keep temperatures higher there. Lows -1 to +4 C in south and east, to about 7 C in parts of the north and west.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy but there could be some brighter intervals at times. Rain will be slowly approaching the west coast and some patchy drizzle will probably reach land but it will be nightfall before measurable rain begins in the west and north. Moderate southwest winds of 40 to 60 km/hr will set in.

WEDNESDAY will have some intervals of light rain, 5 to 10 mm on average, in a milder southwest wind of 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows will be about 7 to 10 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will continue mostly cloudy and mild, with a little more rain although spotty in most cases, and south winds will not be overly strong, with highs possibly as high as 16 C.

FRIDAY will bring outbreaks of rain and some could be heavy across the south. The timing and exact track of this system remain imprecise with estimates between Friday mid-day and Saturday early morning for the peak of the impacts. About 15-25 mm of rain is possible. Winds may become rather strong from the east ahead of the low, and then swing around to strong westerly winds once it moves through from southwest to northeast. The stronger east winds might be mostly from Dublin to Clare north into Ulster. Highs on Friday will be around 13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are likely to turn somewhat colder again at least for most of Saturday and the first part of Sunday; milder air could make a return at some point with a second rainfall event rather speculatively timed for Sunday into Monday. These details are going to remain unresolved for a day or two yet. But it looks as though temperatures on the weekend will be around 10-13 C, with the stronger winds of the Friday system easing by Saturday morning, then perhaps resuming from the southeast ahead of the second system timed at present for Sunday. The weather pattern beyond the weekend looks unsettled with frequent fast-moving frontal systems promising a seasonal amount of rain and occasionally strong winds.

My local weather was foggy with light rain most of the day, and that turned to wet snow at sunset, with about 5 cms of slushy snow on the ground now, but it seems to have turned back to drizzle as a weak warm front is moving in. Expecting a rain-snow mix here for the next day or two before any improvements take place. Canada has a federal election going on today (Monday) so you would think there would be a lot of hot air around, but none in evidence. The high here on Sunday was probably about 4 C. Meanwhile, the remnant low of Nestor has moved through Virginia with a soaking rainfall and is now headed towards Bermuda.
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22-10-2019, 07:56   #5410
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Tuesday, 22 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS will return tomorrow. There is a high level of uncertainty to the current medium-range forecasts and I wanted to give more space to a discussion of possible outcomes.

TODAY will remain mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals at times in the east and south. A little light rain could edge onto land in parts of the west by later afternoon. Highs will reach about 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will see rain becoming heavier in a moderate southerly wind of 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows will only fall a few degrees to the 7-10 C range.

WEDNESDAY will have intervals of rain, perhaps 10-15 mm in some places, and moderate southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs once again will reach 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will turn a bit colder and there may be a few mixed wintry showers over high ground in the north but otherwise it should be a dry day with moderate west to northwest winds at times. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C (6-8 C in parts of Ulster).

FRIDAY is where things become very uncertain with guidance struggling to deal with the future evolution of weak low pressure off to the southwest of Ireland. The general trend has been to take most of the moisture south of Ireland into the Channel region, but then a secondary front dropping down from the north could activate in its place over Ireland. So there remains some chance of rain, and possibly outbreaks of sleet on higher ground because there won't be much if any warmer air heading north in this latest scenario. Temperatures may remain fairly constant throughout, around 5 C, but I won't be too surprised if guidance changes again closer to the time. This is one of the inevitable problems for forecasters at those times when weather patterns become weak and steering currents are somewhat unreliable.

Then for the weekend, assuming that the colder unsettled regime sets in on Friday, that would likely fade away by Saturday mid-day as higher pressure would then build in from the north. That would lead to quite a cold interval over the weekend with sharp frosts possible especially over the inland north. Highs would likely be held down to 7-9 C. By later Sunday this cold air would be on the retreat as a second wave forms along the stalled out fronts to the south, and heads more northerly than the first one manages to do. That will bring in some milder air and rain for about Monday.

I will repeat that all of this is a rather low-confidence forecast outcome and we may get a more definite look at the outcome tomorrow.

My local weather went from accumulating wet snow in the morning to drizzle by mid-day and most of that snow gradually melted although it only turned marginally warmer at about 5 C.

Due to the forecast uncertainty, I may issue an update around late afternoon or early evening if I feel that a more reliable trend has been identified by the models. It's always a bad sign when three major guidance sources have quite different looking maps at four or five days, you expect this maybe at ten days lead time. But it remains less than an exact science, as we know.
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23-10-2019, 08:22   #5411
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Wednesday, 23 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, colder in the north.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal or slightly above in the south, to 50% of normal in the north (and may include some wintry mixtures).
-- Sunshine will average near normal values despite a rather cloudy start.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with rain spreading east across the country, about 10-15 mm potential with this band. The morning may remain largely dry in Leinster before the rain arrives there. Southerly winds of about 40-60 km/hr will veer to westerly when the rain ends. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT will turn considerably colder with a few sleety showers in the northwest, otherwise generally dry. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr will add some chill to temperatures dropping to the 1 to 3 C range.

THURSDAY will see cloudy skies with some brighter intervals, and isolated sleety showers mainly in Ulster and north Connacht. Winds will become northwest before dying out towards the end of the day. Highs only 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will bring a cold and in places heavy rainfall across the south, with sleet or snow possible on hills and towards the northern fringes of the rainfall at lower elevations in the central counties. There could be 20-40 mm of rain near the south coast where winds could also be rather strong from the east to northeast at 50 to 70 km/hr. Those winds will be a little more moderate further north but also from the northeast, as low pressure tracks past the south coast into Wales and England. Some accumulations of wet snow are possible on higher terrain in the south and east, and mixed falls further north. High temperatures only 4 to 6 C and feeling very cold and raw.

SATURDAY will bring a partial clearance but continued quite cold with wintry showers possible on north and west facing slopes as winds turn west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY will probably remain dry but cold, however guidance begins to diverge into two outcomes for Monday, so that temperatures could be as low as 5-7 C or in the second scenario rising to around 10 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY the guidance available splits into two concepts, one is a continued feed of colder air from the northeast, largely dry if somewhat cloudy. The other possible outcome is for another low to push north and spread rain across Ireland later in the day and into Tuesday. So we'll have to wait and see which of these proves more accurate, as temperatures would likely be quite a bit milder with the rain scenario in southeast winds. The colder camp of model guidance then wants to bring a second mixed wintry storm towards the southeast mid-week (that is absent from the milder guidance). All then agree that it turns colder again later towards the first of November.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and rather breezy, but with the sunshine warmer than previous days, and recent snow has retreated once again some distance up the local hills and out of the town for now. The strong winds and recent rain or snow have brought down a lot of leaves here in the past three days.
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24-10-2019, 08:04   #5412
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 24 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, coldest in Ulster and northeast Connacht, northwest Leinster.
-- Rainfall (including some high elevation snow or sleet) will average 25% above normal near the south coast, to 50% of normal in central counties and close to 25% of normal in the north.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values to perhaps 25% above normal in parts of the southeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bright and sunny in many areas with a rather weak band of showers pushing gradually south from Ulster, leading to scattered outbreaks of light rain and sleet on high ground especially at first in Donegal and western parts of Northern Ireland. In general this band will produce 1 or 2 mm of rain at the most (or coatings of 1 cm snow or sleet on hills in the north). Highs will reach 10 to 12 C in the south and east which will not be into the colder air until afternoon hours, and 6 to 9 C further north. Moderate westerly breezes at times will start to feel rather chilly especially after the weak frontal band passes.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing of the remnants of the showers by late evening and it will become quite cold in most of the northern and central counties with lows 1 to 4 C and some scattered ground frosts. Closer to the south coast it will remain cloudy with occasional light showers and lows will be about 5 C.

FRIDAY will start out dry with some sunny breaks across the north, overcast south of about a Dublin to Clare line with outbreaks of light rain turning heavier at times near the south coast, then by afternoon some of the heavier rain will push a bit further north to about Limerick to Wicklow. Higher elevations will very likely get some snow and there will be transitional zones of sleet or melting wet snow mixing with the rain on lower slopes, but it remains to be seen whether lower elevations where most people live will see any significant snow either during the day Friday or overnight into Saturday morning. One source of guidance stands pretty much on its own in saying 10 to 20 cms of snow could fall during this event; I can't categorically rule this out so we are on watch, but be aware that almost all other guidance says the event will be mostly or all rainfall at least below 300 metres, which I think includes 99% of the population. It could work out somewhere between the two different outcomes. In any case, Friday will be raw and cold in northeast winds of 30 to 60 km/hr, with higher gusts near the south coast. Highs will reach only 5 to 8 C. There is potential for 20-40 mm rainfalls especially over Munster and south Leinster.

FRIDAY NIGHT will see continued or perhaps renewed bursts of rain, sleet and hill snowfalls. If there is going to be coatings of snow at lower elevations, that might come late during the overnight hours in the final stages of this event. Then the mixed or sleety precipitation will pull away during Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be 1 to 3 C with some scattered frosts in dry and partly cloudy areas further north.

SATURDAY will be breezy and cold with a few passing showers or wintry falls on hills. Highs will reach only 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will also be rather cold but perhaps less windy, with morning frosts (lows -2 to +3 C) and afternoon highs near 9 C.

MONDAY looks to continue dry but with increasing cloud from the southwest, and winds veering from northeast to southeast, still the risk of some morning frosts but mostly further north, and afternoon highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will see some light rain approaching the southwest coasts, mostly cloudy elsewhere, and a bit milder with highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring outbreaks of light rain in Munster, cloudy but mainly dry elsewhere, highs 11 to 14 C.

For THURSDAY the outlook is quite speculative at this range, guidance suggests that any rain will be pushed back to the west by morning and that colder air will return from the northeast, so would expect highs of about 10 C, possibly a bit lower in the north, and by evening (as this is Hallowe'en) frosty especially in northern inland counties.

The cold and dry theme continues into early November and the general pattern for November at this stage looks rather variable with a rather cold background theme but with occasional spells of milder and wetter weather, probably close to seasonal averages overall if a bit on the colder side of normal.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant enough with some sunshine at times and highs near 8 C. Every day we get now without snow or rain is a bonus as November can be quite a cloudy and wet month in our climate too.
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25-10-2019, 07:37   #5413
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Friday, 25 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 degrees below normal, colder values in Ulster and the north midlands.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal in the south, to only 25% or less in the north.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values but could be a bit above that in the north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some cold rain to the south, with the risk of sleet or snow on higher ground, mainly towards summit levels of higher hills. There could be 15-30 mm of rain in a few locations but 5-15 mm will be more widespread. The rain will cut off around county Galway across to Meath, with dry but mostly cloudy conditions further north aside from a few isolated showers. Winds will be moderate northeast 40 to 60 km/hr in the south, to about 30 km/hr further north, adding some chill to highs only reaching 8 C on the south coast and 4-6 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will see further outbreaks of rain and the snow line may come down in elevation towards morning, with rain mixing with wet snow just as the event is ending. No significant accumulation is expected except on some hills. Skies will remain partly cloudy to clear at times further north. Lows -1 to +3 C with some scattered ground frosts in north central counties.

SATURDAY will be rather windy and cold with a north wind at first backing to northwest and increasing to 50-70 km/hr. Some wintry showers may be produced over the Atlantic coming inland over Ulster and north Connacht, but most places will turn dry once the morning sleety rain is finished. Highs will only reach 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be somewhat less chilly with slacker northeast winds and a bit of sunshine through mixed high cloud layers, morning lows -2 to +3 C with some frosts in central and inland northern counties, highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and dry with morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon highs 8 to 11 C. Light to moderate east winds are expected and could be rather brisk near the Irish Sea coasts.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a chance of some light rain in Kerry and Cork, but remaining dry in the rest of the country, lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY the rain could hang around in west Munster for a while before drifting away, and most other areas will remain cloudy but dry, with sunny breaks developing over the north. Lows near 2 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY looks mostly cloudy with stronger east to northeast winds developing, and isolated wintry showers in the north. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 4 to 7 C (perhaps 7 to 10 C near south coast).

FRIDAY and the following weekend (2-3 Nov) appear likely to remain dry and cool with rain gradually approaching towards Monday 4th.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with highs of about 8 C.
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26-10-2019, 07:33   #5414
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Saturday, 26 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 26 Oct to 1st Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will be about 2 to 3 deg below normal, although rising at end of period to above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be about 25-50 per cent of normal to near the end of the interval but could exceed normal values due to heavy rain by 1st Nov.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and cold in most areas, the light rain still ongoing in the southeast should pull away by mid-day, and one or two blustery showers could blow in to Donegal and other parts of the northwest but they won't advance much further. Winds moderate westerly to northwesterly by mid-day and afternoon, highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear at times, and quite cold, with scattered frosts inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional sunshine despite various higher cloud layers, and winds will be less blustery, and turning more to the northeast. Highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and cool, morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will see increasing cloud and there could be sprinkles of light rain in west Munster but otherwise dry, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become overcast with rain slowly pushing onto land from the Atlantic, but not making a lot of progress until late evening. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY, the outlook has changed as rain is now expected to keep pushing east, removing the dry weather from the picture by mid-day, and it may turn to a heavy rain at times by evening. Temperatures steady near 10 C.

FRIDAY will continue wet and rather mild with highs near 12 C.

The outlook has also changed for November and possibly due to energization of the jet stream by tropical storms that formed earlier yesterday (Olga in the Gulf of Mexico, Pablo west of the Azores). While these are not big storms and won't last long, they are a symptom of a breakdown in any blocking tendencies that were developing, and it could mean an onslaught of frequent wind and rain in November (which is not that unusual, I suppose).

My local weather was quite dramatic, most of the day was cloudy and mild with a southwest breeze, with a high near 11 C, but a strong cold front blasted through at about 4 p.m. and produced wind gusts to 120 km/hr, blowing down trees very close to my location (about two blocks away apparently). We were without electric power as a result from then until 9 p.m., luckily the large trees near our building rode out the storm. It has calmed down considerably since sunset and has turned quite cold. This front is already a couple of hundred miles into the U.S. northwest now. Trees that were fully foliated about two weeks ago are now quite bare after a brief blizzard of leaves with the windstorm.
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27-10-2019, 06:22   #5415
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Sunday, 27 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 27 Oct to 2 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, the first half of the interval will be quite cool and the second half equally mild.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, most of it will come on Wednesday and Thursday, dry in most places until then.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25% above normal in some parts of the north.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few cloudy intervals, and isolated showers in the north. It will continue rather cold with highs 8 to 11 C. Moderate north to northeast winds at times (40 to 60 km/hr).

TONIGHT will bring clear skies with a few clouds, and frost is likely in most rural areas. Lows -3 to +2 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with moderate northeast winds at times, highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, and there could be some light rain by afternoon in west Munster. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs about 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with rain moving in from the west, about 10 mm likely. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with rain and some fog, milder, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. About 10-20 mm rain likely.

FRIDAY will see some partial clearing and showers more isolated, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

The following weekend will likely be overcast with occasional showers, and temperatures near average at 10-12 C.

My local weather on Saturday was partly sunny with a few showers (possibly flurries) visible in all directions but it stayed dry here, and the high was about 7 C.
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