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This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    WolfeIRE wrote: »

    I always thought it would be a good idea for Met Eireann to go beyond what they are currently doing and provide a little insight into what they think may happen.

    They sort of do anyway, in their forecasts :D but seriously, wouldn't be a bad idea at all. Something like the UK met office blog website which is a good source of regular weather news. To have an Irish based one would be fantastic. Would be great if they got to post on this website forum as well! One thing I have to see before I die is an Evelyn Cusack/Darkman2 stand off over the position of a front or something :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Just spoted a 10m 80 knot wind barb in the Irish sea! and a 100 knot 925hpa wind barb!

    Dublin would be smashed.:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Storm 2 is still nearly a a week away. It will be downgraded as well. Hopefully...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    One thing I have to see before I die is an Evelyn Cusack/Darkman2 stand off over the position of a front or something :D

    Did nobody tell you? Darkman is Evelyn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    Storm 2 on the 18Z GFS is the most serious storm I've ever seen on the GFS for Ireland that hasnt been in FI in the last 6 years or so that I've been watching the models.

    Yes but it really must be remembered that it is six days away and, given the downgrades that have take place to the other low pressures, it is very likely that the track and intensity of Friday's one will be completely different to what is modelled now.

    Of course I completely agree with the need to give people a heads up when such powerful storms are shown but this should always be subject to the proviso that forecasting models chop and change daily - so no need to panic just yet.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 65 ✭✭seanknowsall


    How boring .... gerry " I love drizzle and a light southerly breeze" murphy doing the long range forecast tomorrow. Expect a downbeat forecast. Wheres Evelyn?? At least she shows some enthusiasm!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    What is it that stops these storms from hitting Ireland directly. Is it the jet stream or is it the sea that plays a bigger role?
    Be interesting to se if it veers further north or south

    11121600_1012.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    2j5jsev.jpg
    sv1csw.jpg
    2cneeea.jpg
    t5gkky.jpg

    Wow. The downgrades start here.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Scottish ski resorts will be happy after all this wind passes over
    184700.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    So if the models come off, say this wednesday, the irish papers could Headline "HURRICANE ON THE WAY"?/ for real?


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  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Just spoted a 10m 80 knot wind barb in the Irish sea! and a 100 knot 925hpa wind barb!

    Dublin would be smashed.:eek:

    thank goodness you said 'WOULD' as in, it wont really come to pass... it wont will it :):eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    pad199207 wrote: »
    So if the models come off, say this wednesday, the irish papers could Headline "HURRICANE ON THE WAY"?/ for real?

    If this setup materialised you would be looking atat least a Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale. Such status would be relatively shortlived though. Category 1 relates to maximum sustained winds of around 65 knots.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    How boring .... gerry " I love drizzle and a light southerly breeze" murphy doing the long range forecast tomorrow. Expect a downbeat forecast. Wheres Evelyn?? At least she shows some enthusiasm!!

    Agree about Gerry "We can expect Wind and Rain" against Evelyn "Just look at the semi Polar Vortex in the Atlantic and the powerful projected run by Hirlam for Friday"

    People who watch weather want experts , though Gerry knows his weather he is not a TV presenter though he is about as good as Pat Kenny


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,776 ✭✭✭up for anything


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    If this setup materialised you would be looking atat least a Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale. Such status would be relatively shortlived though. Category 1 relates to maximum sustained winds of around 65 knots.

    That doesn't sound so terribly bad except for the flooding or am I being naive?
    Category 1, Saffir Simpson Scale.
    Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    That doesn't sound so terribly bad except for the flooding or am I being naive?

    I couldn't imagine the people of Ireland battening down the hatches and paying heed to weather warnings in the same efficient manner as those Florida, South Carolina etc. We are just not used to such weather and that is the biggest fear.

    Still 5 days to go so there is plenty of time to prepare for such a system. There is also plenty of time for changes to this system to take place.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z NOGAPS has the second storm on the same track as the GFS, though not as crazy intense, 955mb centered on Donegal.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    pad199207 wrote: »
    So if the models come off, say this wednesday, the irish papers could Headline "HURRICANE ON THE WAY"?/ for real?

    It's started already!

    184703.PNG


  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    what will tuesday be like for example what is the max winds we could expect


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    If the 955mb is centered on Donegal, does that mean it will be more stormy away Donegal i.e. away from the eye of the storm or does it mean that Donegal would be in the thick of it?

    I feel like coming back on here in 4 days time because this has 'the biggest let down ever' written all over it :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    what will tuesday be like for example what is the max winds we could expect

    Hard to know. The same output that has ramped up the second storm has weakened the first storm. Nothing set it stone at all.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    ok but worse case sceario


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭plein de force


    2j5jsev.jpg
    sv1csw.jpg
    2cneeea.jpg
    t5gkky.jpg

    Wow. The downgrades start here.
    There'll be good drying out at least

    but seriously i love a good storm but i like my roof even more, hope that doesn't come to pass


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS control run doesn't do the complex low stuff that weakened Tuesdays storm on the operational run.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    The German Weather Service has a daily blog "Thema des Tages" (Theme of the Day) on its website, written by the service's meteorologists, dealing with topical weather of interest. It's an excellent service, and I have receive it by email every day.

    http://www.dwd.de/tagesthema


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    ok but worse case sceario

    Well i would anticipate in western and northern fringes to see gusts between 65 and 75 knots (120-140 km/hr) . Elsewhere widespread 50 -65 knot (95- 120 km/hr) gusts particularly in northern half of the country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    If the 955mb is centered on Donegal, does that mean it will be more stormy away Donegal i.e. away from the eye of the storm or does it mean that Donegal would be in the thick of it?

    I feel like coming back on here in 4 days time because this has 'the biggest let down ever' written all over it :pac:

    Yep, until the low actually pulls away that is!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    ok but worse case sceario

    Cardamage.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    position of the Friday low not nailed on yet according to ensembles although members have it just to our north or even to our south but varying degrees of intensity.

    One members take on it................

    Perhaps even too much for an extreme weather person like me, as fatalities would be inevitable if a 915mb storm pushed into Donegal.

    gens-11-1-126.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    position of the Friday low not nailed on yet according to ensembles although members have it just to our north or even to our south but varying degrees of intensity.

    One members take on it................

    Perhaps even too much for an extreme weather person like me, as fatalities would be inevitable if a 915mb storm pushed into Donegal.

    gens-11-1-126.png?18

    jerryimout.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Do you know what i find so funny about the above clip the two people at the front the man with the glasses and the lady who are watching RTE weather next Thursday night .


This discussion has been closed.
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