July 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

Meanwhile, have now posted the annual update over in June, with best 5 of 6 to ease us towards the eventual reality of the best 10 of 12 (or if you're Lumi, the best 10 of 10). The one outlier in that list is BLIZZARD7 who drops one very low score to reach third place, otherwise the best 5 of 6 scores don't stray too far from the order of all six (Lumi had missed one already so that score is also well ahead of the rank for all six).

So to get back to July, the IMT now on 17.7 with yesterday managing 18.3 C.

The new MAX is 28.0 (Shannon) while the daily MIN of 8.2 (Dub A) left the monthly value (6.3) intact.

Another dry day leaves the PRC at a rather skimpy 1% of normal.

SUN was unstoppable at 92.3 hours, about 285% of normal. That brings the month to 232% of normal.

I feel like I may need a strong coffee to check the reality of these numbers, after all it is but 0547h here with the sun finally making a bit of an attempt to burn off the stratus. My comparable values are 13.5 _ 18.0 _ 12.0 _ 250 _ 010

IMT on 17.6 after the 5th cooled off to 16.9 for an average.

MAX stays 28.1 as the 5th had the lowest maximum in several weeks, 24.9. The daily minimum of 9.1 (Malin Head) left the previous value of 5.1 intact.

PRC remains 1% with the 5th at 2% mainly due to 0.8 mm falling at Malin Head, also 0.1 mm at Belmullet so the grid reached 0.9 mm which is close to 3% of normal. Markree and Newport outside our contest grid also had measurable rainfalls of fractions of 1 mm.

SUN now on 211% of normal with the 5th producing 52.7 hours which is about 160% of normal.

For the bonus question, today's maximum, the 2 p.m. leaders are Newport (24) followed by Oak Park (23) and several at 22. Perhaps somebody will update this as I plan on sleeping through the next two reports.

At 1600h Oak Park and Casement at 24 C.

IMT on 17.7 C after sixth, the average for the day was 18.3 C.

MAX for the day was 25.3 (Oak Park) and MIN 7.8 at Malin Head.. (no changes to monthly values of 28.1, 5.1).

PRC for the day was 0.7 mm at Cork, another day at 3% leaving the month at 1% of normal.

SUN for the first time in weeks fell short of normal, 31.6 hours is about 98% of normal, so the month is down to 185%.

The contest bonus is the MAX for 6th. Three points for correct location (Oak Park 25.3), two for second or third highest (Mountdillon 24.8, Casement 24.7) and one point if your pick beat or tied Markree (21.4) -- these stations not already mentioned did so -- Athenry, Ballyhaise, Claremorris, Dublin, Finner Camp, Dunsany, Gurteen, Johnstown Castle, Moore Park, Mullingar, Newport, Phoenix Park, Roches Point, and Shannon). All of our picks managed at least that.

The scoring on temperatures will be as follows (superbonus additions noted based on location) ...

7 pts _ Sryanbruen 25.2 (+2), waterways 25.4, Rameire 25.5 (+2), Pauldry 25.0 (+2) _ error range 0.1 to 0.3

6 pts _ Tae laidir 14.8, sunflower3 (+1), dasa29, Bsal, Kindred Spirit (all 26.0) _ error range 0.5 to 0.7

5 pts _ John mac (26.1), dacogawa, adam240610, Con Sensus (26.2), JCX BXC (26.3) _ error range 0.8 to 1.0

4 pts _ DOCARCH (26.7) _ error 1.4

3 pts _ Jpmarn (23.5), sdanseo (27.1) _ error 1.8

2 pts _ MrSkinner (27.8), mickger844posts (27.9), Rikand (28.0) _ error range 2.5 to 2.7

1 pt _ 200motels and BLIZZARD7 (28.8), MTC and Joe Public (28.9) _ error range 3.5 to 3.6

After 7th, IMT 17.8 ... daily IMT was 18.6

No PRC other than 0.4 mm Belmullet, PRC remains 1%.

SUN 42.4 hours, about 130% brings down average to 177%.

Max on 7th was 26.6 (OP) and min was 9.5 (Markree) (no new MAX/MIN).

After nine days the IMT stays on 17.9 with the 9th at 17.6 C.

MAX yesterday was 25.2 at Moorepark, while the MIN was 8.0 at Markree. These leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 5.1 C.

PRC was essentially zero (0.1 mm at Knock) so that our 1% monthly average is holding steady.

SUN on 9th was 47.5 hours, about 142% of normal. That leaves the (adjusted) monthly total around 180% of normal.

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some may have noticed that I mentioned a month-long absence in the forecast thread (21 July to 21 August) ... I hope to be able to maintain some basic level of contest updates, but these daily updates may not be possible after 21st or during most of August. I should be able to do the basic minimum of scoring July and posting August, this is not designed to be a total absence from the internet but that will happen for several days at a time with rest days with internet access, so I won't totally disappear, unless I fall off a cliff or something.

After 11 days, IMT on 17.6, the average on the 11th was 16.8.

MAX for the day 25.3 at Moorepark, MIN 9.0 Mountdillon, monthly extremes remain 28.1 and 4.5.

PRC is still only rounding off to 1% (actually 0.8%) despite the 2.9 mm fall in total at a few stations in the northwest and north.

SUN managed 31.5 hours, mostly thanks to Valentia, about 97% for the day, which brings us back down to around 175% for the month.

The IMT clings to 17.4 (17.36) with the 14th at 17.0. The average for the second week was 16.9 C (1.4 above normal).

MAX for the day 26.4 (Casement) and MIN of 8.7 (Dublin, Markree) failed to move those markers (28.1, 4.5).

PRC finally has some business with 16.2 mm at five western and northern locations, still only about 60% of a normal daily amount. This brings the month up to 5% of normal. The second week average was 10% of normal.

SUN was 35.7 hours, about 105% of a normal daily amount, and mostly in the two eastern locations and Cork. This sets the new monthly average at 161%. The weekly average (from ag. report) was 138% (828/600).

The IMT is barely 17.2 after 16 days (17.16) and the 16th average was 15.2, slightly below normal for a change.

MAX for the day 21.2 (OP, PP) and MIN 7.9 (Mullingar), no change to monthly (28.1, 4.5).

PRC for the day 1.6 mm (7% of normal) so that leaves the month at 19% of normal.

SUN was 23.0 hours, about 70% of normal, which drops the monthly average down to 145%.

After 18 days, the IMT is a nice consensual 17.0 C, with the 18th on 15.7 C.

MAX for the day 21.9 at Casement and Phoenix Park, MIN 8.0 at Markree, leaving the month unchanged (28.1, 4.5).

PRC just 0.1 mm at Belmullet in our contest grid, so that allows the month to drift back down to 18% of normal.

SUN 35.6 hours, about 106% of normal, but this allows another drop for the month, to 137%.

I will be on the road soon, but likely to have internet access the first few days (visiting family) so it's probably going to be 24th to 30th that will need some updates. If anyone wants to volunteer to continue these updates, I can send you a PM about how to do them. I will be on contest duty for the 31st of July and 1st of August then likely gone from the net for 21 days to 22nd of August, so there again, August contest updates would be appreciated.

Hypothetical scoring for July 2018

See previous post for discussion ... just putting up a table that I can edit faster when I have limited time on line around 1st of August.


FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 6th loc'n __ TOTAL

Estimated values ___ 17.1_28.1_ 4.5_050_120 __ 25.3_OP



sryanbruen _________22 _ 20*_ 11 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 90

waterways _________ 24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 _______ 80

Rameire ___________ 21 _ 08*_ 20 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 79


__ Consensus ______ 24 _ 10*_ 20 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 79


M.T. Cranium ______ 25 _ 14*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 74

JCX_BXC __________24 _ 13*_ 14 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 73

Jpmarn ___________ 22 _ 12*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 73

john mac __________21 _ 17*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 71

pauldry ___________ 23 _ 10*_ 13 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 71

Bsal ______________23 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

DOCARCH _________ 20 _ 16*_ 14 _ 13 _ 01 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 71

Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 10*_ 15 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 70

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___21 _ 15*_ 13 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 76-6=70

Dacogawa _________ 24 _ 03*_ 18 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 67

MrSkinner _________ 24 _ 11*_ 16 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 65

sunflower3 _________24 _ 13*_ 00 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 ____ 63

dasa29 ___________ 24 _ 10*_ 00 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 62

mickger844posts ____21 _ 08*_ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 60

Rikand ____________24 _ 04*_ 15 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 2 _______ 60

sdanseo ___________24 _ 00*_ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 60

adam240610 _______13 _ 18*_ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 60

BLIZZARD7 ________ 19 _ 01*_ 12 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 59

Joe Public _________ 23 _ 05*_ 14 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 56

200motels _________22 _ 02*_ 13 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 53



__ NormaL ________ 09 _ 19*_ 10 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 50
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* MAX scoring from minimum progression. Highest raw score is 17 (sryanbruen) ... if MAX reaches 28.3 to 28.5, raw score will be 19 or 20 and this could drop the rest of the scores (only half of boosted points available if maximum raw score is 19 or 20 in this category). Similar comment if the MAX gets close to any higher value although as that happens, raw scores may not need boosting (after application of this rule, raw score if higher will count).

So, while sryanbruen will be hoping my PRC and SUN estimates are on target, and MAX stays below 29, he can actually improve the high score already shown with (a) lower IMT and (b) lower MIN. Of course these scores are somewhat approximate at this point, so good luck if you have a high score from these estimates. I will edit this table if possible (at least once perhaps) as later data adjust the estimates. Then the actual numbers will be generated on August 1st.

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(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
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NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

* Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).

IMT remains on 16.9, 21st was 16.4 and third week 15.9 (0.2 above normal).

MAX 23.9 (Moorepark) and MIN 9.8 (Gurteen) -- month remains on 28.1, 4.5.

PRC 2.5 mm (9%) drops the month to 26%.... third week average 75% of normal.

SUN 27.3 hours (83%) drops the month to 128% ... third week 75% also.