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Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

135678

Comments

  • #62
    rhonin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    eskimocat wrote: »
    Getting worried that all we will see around here is frost on top of wet wintery conditions, followed by the odd bit of sleet. Meantime up the nearest mountain, there will be lovely white powdery snow :rolleyes:

    It's the damn snow shield we have placed here!


  • #63
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    That shortwave is further south at 36 hours on the 06Z...


  • #64
    Defcol
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭Defcol


    maquiladora wrote: »
    That shortwave is further south at 36 hours on the 06Z...

    What does that mean in laymans terms?


  • #65
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Defcol wrote: »
    What does that mean in laymans terms?

    Slight changes that might have a big impact a couple of days down the line. Will have to wait and see.


  • #66
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,283 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Big drop in temps here today. Currently only 1.2c, was 4.3c this time yesterday. Bodes well for the coming few days...


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  • #67
    Defcol
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭Defcol


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Slight changes that might have a big impact a couple of days down the line. Will have to wait and see.

    For better or worse?


  • #68
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    forkassed wrote: »
    A comparison from last year...

    Note.. SST's 4 degrees warmer and we are 3 weeks before the shortest day of the year instead of 2 weeks after it. Obviously the snowfall will not be as widespread :(



    :eek: Oh come on!
    Have no idea what sst is but all i know is that this november is a lot colder than last and probably the coldest I have ever seen, last november was a washout.


  • #69
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Definitely wouldn't swap this cold crispy weather for the rain we had last November. Will even put up with a bit of fog in the mornings.

    Driving to Dublin tomorrow morning and back tomorrow evening so hoping to see some "weather" on my travels ;)


  • #70
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    :eek: Oh come on!
    Have no idea what SST is but all i know is that this november is a lot colder than last and probably the coldest I have ever seen, last november was a washout.

    Sea surface temperature . :)
    Morning fellow boardsies!


  • #71
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Morning


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  • #72
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    uh oh


  • #73
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,504 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    06ZGFS not great, shortwaves are becoming a pain.
    This afternoon's ECM will be interesting.......


  • #74
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Not great from the GFS this morning, but not all lost, it still keeps things cold :o


  • #75
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    :o

    gfs-0-156.png?6


  • #76
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    :eek: Oh come on!
    Have no idea what sst is but all i know is that this november is a lot colder than last and probably the coldest I have ever seen, last november was a washout.

    He's comparing the current/forecast set up with that of early January 2010 not November 2009!


    Certainly nothing overly mild in the offing on this morning's ECMWF as Maq pointed out earlier.

    ECMWF 240hr:
    136214.png


    Ensemble mean has the 850hPa temps at a rough average of -3c to -6c over Ireland throughout the run.


  • #77
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    maquiladora wrote: »
    :o

    gfs-0-156.png?6

    Stop with the weather porn :p


  • #78
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    One thing i've noticed in terms of small-scale changes in the gfs 06z is that tonight and early tomorrow the gfs is now suggesting that precip will be held just off the East coast until late-ish thursday morning when some light stuff reaches the coast, instead of bringing it in overnight as previous runs suggested..

    EDIT:You can see in the ensembles acutally that the 06z run seems to be the only one giving no precip tonight out of all the runs.
    http://boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=136217&stc=1&d=1290598935


  • #79
    Figuramatyi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭Figuramatyi


    I don't think there's any need to worry:
    192_24.gif


  • #80
    Winger_PL
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    trogdor wrote: »
    One thing i've noticed in terms of small-scale changes in the gfs 06z is that tonight and early tomorrow the gfs is now suggesting that precip will be held just off the East coast until late-ish thursday morning when some light stuff reaches the coast, instead of bringing it in overnight as previous runs suggested..

    That would seem correct, this morning there was an amazing display of Cumulus clouds over the sea visible from Dublin, with one Cb rising above the rest, all that mass was heading south steering clear of the coast. I wish I had taken my camera to work as it looked impressive; I'm certain somebody must have taken some pictures of it.


  • #81
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    He's comparing the current/forecast set up with that of early January 2010 not November 2009!


    .
    OK Thanks ,those are two very different months to compare.
    There was a good cold spell in place for the 2nd half of december before early January so the comparison on this set up in november is obviously not going to be the same.
    Maybe 2 weeks of a freeze then we might get something similar to last January regarding sea surface tempertures etc.


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  • #82
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,623 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    it's annoying to see the word preceded by snow in that met eireann update, but then they can't cater to my whims. I have a nasty feeling those warm sectors are going to do as they please. We could well have to wait for a breakdown before most of us see any decent precipitation in the form of sleet or snow- unless su campu the great can rustle up a polar low from norway in a strong noth /northeasterly flow


  • #83
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I think FI is a lot nearer than usual with this kind of setup...


  • #84
    lord lucan
    Registered Users Posts: 9,573 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Winger_PL wrote: »
    That would seem correct, this morning there was an amazing display of Cumulus clouds over the sea visible from Dublin, with one Cb rising above the rest, all that mass was heading south steering clear of the coast. I wish I had taken my camera to work as it looked impressive; I'm certain somebody must have taken some pictures of it.

    Took this yesterday,the big bank of cloud just hung over the coastline for much of the day. Pic isn't great due to being taken through glass but you might get some idea of it.

    IMG_20101123_161041.jpg


  • #85
    Figuramatyi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭Figuramatyi


    Also don't worry about GFS, operative is way above av: MS_-853_ens.png


  • #86
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    A small dusting of snow on the dublin mountains this morning if nobody mentioned it yet.

    I think its gone now since the sun came up.


  • #87
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snowrisk.asp

    For a bit of fun.


  • #88
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    UK met office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
    Snow showers continuing, especially in north and east but spreading to many other parts by the weekend.
    Further snow showers or longer spells of snow are likely almost anywhere across the UK next week, northern, eastern and central areas tending to see the most frequent showers.

    I guess it will be similar for us.


  • #89
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    nacho libre wrote: »
    it's annoying to see the word preceded by snow in that met eireann update, but then they can't cater to my whims. I have a nasty feeling those warm sectors are going to do as they please. We could well have to wait for a breakdown before most of us see any decent precipitation in the form of sleet or snow- unless su campu the great can rustle up a polar low from norway in a strong noth /northeasterly flow

    You called???? :D

    png;

    Ok, only kidding, it's not a true polar low - or is it?
    The NAE has it as a much more potent small-scale warm-core centre pulling storm-force wins down on its nortwest flank by tomorrow evening.

    10112512_2406.gif

    The GFS and HiRLAM have the strong winds too, but have a much more flabby centre.

    101124_0600_30.png

    What I'm looking is at the GFS for Saturday and Sunday, which still has -1°C theta-w values over the east and north in an easterly breeze. IF this turns out to be the case, then it would suggest a good chance of snow to all levels. It's still very marginal though, but the fact that it's still showing it nearer to the time gives me a little more optimism that the east and northeast will see some action, and probably below the magic 50m!

    10112712_2406.gif

    10112818_2406.gif

    But it's on such a fine balance at the moment that the Norwegian low could scupper this and pull out the plug. It'll be a nowcasting weekend I think....


  • #90
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    No change in the UKMO outlook out to Dec 23rd :

    UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Dec 2010 to Thursday 23 Dec 2010:

    The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

    Updated: 1200 on Wed 24 Nov 2010


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  • #91
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    It's all a waiting game now.

    Daily routine for next few days
    • Get up, have a peek out the window, grab a coffee and check MT's daily forecast
    • Get to work, grab another coffee and check the discussion thread on boards
    • More coffee and an f5 every half hour or so
    • loo break - all that coffee is starting to take it's toll
    • no checking of Boards in the afternoon as I'll have nothing to read when i get home
    • Get home and have a cup of tea, wouldn't like to become predictable now would I.
    • Snuggle down on Sofa with laptop and f5 the evening away.
    Ahhh bliss - I love winter:cool:


This discussion has been closed.
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