PP butchering lucky 15s

PhuckHugh2 · 18-02-2019 3:12pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Sure if you follow that logic then why bother betting at all as the over round cannot be beaten.

If you're getting value on the place part of an EW L15 then it is unquestionably a good bet with treble odds for one winner, the old adage of multi bets being exclusively for mugs is wrong.

I never said the over round couldnt be beaten. I was more replying to the previous punter who said that you are better off doing a Lucky 15 to a Win single or Each Way.

If you have little knowledge of something you are better off betting win only that is the point i was trying to make. I dont really think it is an unrealistic concept for people to grasp.

I have done Lucky 15s myself in the past i can see the interest that they can give people but it wouldnt be for me.

PhuckHugh2 · 18-02-2019 3:25pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Maths isn't my strong point but that doesn't sound right to me.

Four of the bets are singles or 27% of the total stake in other words.

If there 20% margin on those singles then 21% of the total L15 stake is coming back, ie of 842 at least 180 on 842 staked. That's ignoring ALL the doubles, trebles and of course the four-fold (rare though it is!)

It's also ignoring double odds on one winner.

i don't think anyone would claim the L15 is professional punting, it's a bet for entertainment with a large potential return that you can dream about for an hour or so.

Jesus yes im not sure why i didnt even question that is it is all over the shop. Monday is my excuse. You are spot on. I make it 22% back on the singles on a re-calculation and a total total overround of 55% on the bet.

In any case the point i was trying to make was to the previous poster who claimed lucky 15s are a better bet than singles. Obviously there are times when you can get an overall edge on a multiple but it is as rare as hens teeth and if you are interested in making money then Single bets are the way to go.

UrbanFret · 18-02-2019 9:40pm

Opened an account with bet 365. Did L15 , had 1 winner and only twice the odds. WTF?

HarshOstrich · 18-02-2019 10:02pm

UrbanFret wrote: »

Opened an account with bet 365. Did L15 , had 1 winner and only twice the odds. WTF?

That’s what all online bookmakers do.
I recommend bet victor as you get Best odds guaranteed on all multiples and lucky bets.

UrbanFret · 18-02-2019 10:52pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Bet365 still treble odds. By far the best online betting company.

?????

Gringo180 · 19-02-2019 8:21am

UrbanFret wrote: »

?????

Must of followed suit and cut it to double odds. **** it anyways

Realalemadrid · 19-02-2019 10:13am

The only on-line book doing treble odds on the L15 is Betfred AFAIK.

finbarrk · 22-02-2019 10:50am

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Just done a quick calculation the total over round for 120% markets in a lucky 15 is 742%.
For anyone unfamiliar with bookmaking this means that if a bookies takes 842euro in lucky 15s they should expect to pay out 100.
Obviously it is not an exact science but this is just talking the average market.

Not what i would consider value. But each to their own.

I don't think that is correct.

PhuckHugh2 · 22-02-2019 10:57am

finbarrk wrote: »

I don't think that is correct.

Yes sorry i corrected myself a few posts later. Pretty sure second calculation is correct.
Was doing the first one in my head and made a mare of it. Will edit the post to avoid confusion.

**Actually not able to edit that post for some reason.

pugw · 27-02-2019 12:32am

Any of ye use Betfred for luckys? They have maintained treble odds! Was thinking of setting up an account! I notice they don’t offer their new customer offer to Irish customers. What are there prices like? Any issues getting a €5 lucky 15 on etc?

The White Wolf · 27-02-2019 8:00am

pugw wrote: »

Any of ye use Betfred for luckys? They have maintained treble odds! Was thinking of setting up an account! I notice they don’t offer their new customer offer to Irish customers. What are there prices like? Any issues getting a €5 lucky 15 on etc?

I use them and I haven't seen any restrictions on multiple bets. Largest one I've done is €4 lucky.

They're alright. The negatives would be that they're not exactly generous with specials and would be slower to go NRNB on races. They won't do the punters any favours essentially with things they don't have to do compared to Paddy Power. Another example of that is poor cash out offers. Another is slow to update books.

Positives is they're quick to process payments to your account. For example if make a withdrawal 9pm on a Friday the funds will be in your account Tuesday morning which I think is very good. That's really the only positive and main reason I back with them!

Multiples are definitely bets that don't seem to have much incentive anymore and I'm mad about them. I'll be reigning myself in anyway on the stakes I put down as it's just not worth it for your typical weekend fare.

Pogue eile · 28-02-2019 12:52pm

UrbanFret wrote: »

Yeah the bookies are full of the type of punters you mention above. The ones who can't see beyond the first 2 in the betting, backing 4/1 shots each way. They are the type of punter the bookie loves not the small L15 player who could and does some serious damage for small stakes. Only Saturday a Kerry punter scooped over 20K for a 30c L15 . No ones claiming they are easy to get up but most days a punter can break even with one winner in 4. No way the lad that's throwing hundreds on favs at short prices is.

The bolded part actually couldn't be further from the truth if you tried!

OsmosisJ · 28-02-2019 3:11pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

The bolded part actually couldn't be further from the truth if you tried!

somewhat true, the bookies don't give a hoot about the punter backing horses , only the virtual, bingo,roulette etc **** that has infested them

longshotvalue · 28-02-2019 5:13pm

Made my biggest mistake ever with l15 on Saturday . Went into shop to do one where they were all in extra place races and when I got there I realised the Romain de Senam race was only 3 places in shop not 4 the same as online . First time I've seen that on a Saturday .

I should have just got them to lodge and the do it , but said f**k and just did it anyway .

Needless to say romain de senam finished 4th and I got €240 instead of c. €1400 .

Livid as I'm a stickler about value. Anyway more my mistake than paddy , but l15s in those extra places races are gold .

UrbanFret · 28-02-2019 10:03pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

The bolded part actually couldn't be further from the truth if you tried!

Its all about opinions I have mine and you have yours.

pugw · 28-02-2019 10:06pm

Sickened Aidan. Do they even give double odds online !?

PhuckHugh2 · 01-03-2019 10:44am

UrbanFret wrote: »

Its all about opinions I have mine and you have yours.

It is not really opinions. As a general bookies would rather take Lucky 15s all day than have people betting each way singles.
Ask any of the big firms them Lucky 15s are music to their ears.

Obviously as has been pointed out there are exceptions but the general would be to push all those Lucky XX bets.

Pogue eile · 01-03-2019 11:09am

UrbanFret wrote: »

Its all about opinions I have mine and you have yours.

But yours is wrong, I was merely pointing this out to you.

UrbanFret · 01-03-2019 9:41pm

So the bookies were making that much on L15s that they decided to cut the bonus for 1 winner. Mind boggling.

PP butchering lucky 15s

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