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29-10-2020, 13:14   #8071
Claw Hammer
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But people have been spouting on herewith the amount of air bnb and rentals coming on stream (this was 8 or 9 months ago) and the fact that there is no tourism, no students and no immigration inwards, we would have a huge property range to choose from and the opposite has happened.
There is plenty of supply on the rental market.
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29-10-2020, 13:15   #8072
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I would expect supply to remain low until we are well out of this, why would you move now unless you absolutely had too; too many factors at play.

Rather than causing a dramatic decrease in the market as expected, it's possibly and looking likely covid will just cause it to seize up for the foreseeable.

Obviously this is not good for both buyers and sellers, irrespective of prices achieved.
But wouldn't that just result in a zero-sum i.e. if someone sells to buy another home, the two homes just cancel each other out and has no impact on the supply/demand dynamic.

If that reason is true and it does make sense, the reduction in supply is probably not as big a deal as many believe. It basically just leaves the FTB in the market and that should result in them getting better deals as they're the only buyers around (if that reason is true).
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29-10-2020, 13:17   #8073
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But people have been spouting on herewith the amount of air bnb and rentals coming on stream (this was 8 or 9 months ago) and the fact that there is no tourism, no students and no immigration inwards, we would have a huge property range to choose from and the opposite has happened.
We dont have any immigration but we dont have any emigration either.
There are a huge amount of ex air b and b's on daft.ie as it happens, they are just looking for 2 grand for 1 and 2 bed apartments and not getting any tenants in. Paying a mortgage is still significantly cheaper than renting a house so demand for properties remains high.
This might change somewhat when rent prices drop in early 2021
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29-10-2020, 13:40   #8074
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I think its safe to say that the market is utterly unpredictable for the foreseeable future. We're chain free buyers & the market in Cork City is chronically bad in my humble opinion. A few high end properties coming on, a few nice 3 bed semis in desirable areas. Seems to be a lot of former rentals being marketed but none of the above appeal to us to be honest. We're dying to buy a house & have a good upsizing budget but the supply is awful.

If I was selling, I'd be laughing & would probably get a bit more than we did this time last year. We don't know when we're going to find a house & worse, we may have an awful bidding war as seems to be standard these days. Spoke to my friend today who is a manager in one of the "big" banks & she said they're very busy with mortgage applications...same lady told me in March that we'd do very well out of all this as the banks wouldn't be lending. Again, utterly unpredictable. I wish prices would drop but I just don't see it happening any time soon.
Also looking in Cork city. We are first time buyers. Almost bought a new build but pulled out for reasons related to insurance. Looking now at second hand houses and there's nothing! Prices are very high. Our solicitor says she's up the walls with people buying houses. Same with our mortgage broker. We are in okay position as our rent is quite cheap and we both have secure jobs. But the house is very small and we have a toddler so would really like to buy something soon.
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29-10-2020, 13:42   #8075
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But wouldn't that just result in a zero-sum i.e. if someone sells to buy another home, the two homes just cancel each other out and has no impact on the supply/demand dynamic.

If that reason is true and it does make sense, the reduction in supply is probably not as big a deal as many believe. It basically just leaves the FTB in the market and that should result in them getting better deals as they're the only buyers around (if that reason is true).
I think it's safe to assume there is a growing number of FTBs and a dwindling number of houses for sale.

The longer lockdown goes on, the greater the number of FTBers. If you've decided to buy a house as a FTB it's very unlikely you'll change your mind, it takes years of saving/prep.

If I own a house I want to sell and lock down happens I might pull it back, it's a far easier process.

The pool of FTBers is only getting bigger and I think covid will create more as people realise the importance of their own space.

Demand > Supply
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29-10-2020, 13:47   #8076
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But people have been spouting on herewith the amount of air bnb and rentals coming on stream (this was 8 or 9 months ago) and the fact that there is no tourism, no students and no immigration inwards, we would have a huge property range to choose from and the opposite has happened.
Rental market is the twilight zone at the moment, so the change is certainly visible there. The question is whether a critical mass of landlords can either hold out for 2019 rents with empty units or accept that they'll have to get less for the unit from now on, or whether they'll bow out of the rental game.
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29-10-2020, 13:47   #8077
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But wouldn't that just result in a zero-sum i.e. if someone sells to buy another home, the two homes just cancel each other out and has no impact on the supply/demand dynamic.

If that reason is true and it does make sense, the reduction in supply is probably not as big a deal as many believe. It basically just leaves the FTB in the market and that should result in them getting better deals as they're the only buyers around (if that reason is true).
No not really I showed you that we have quite a high number of people in the 24 to 45 range a good % of these would be first time and second time buyers.

Also a lot marriages and relationships have hit the skids over the pandemic not just here but worldwide, Nothing worse than having to stay at home with your wife and kids 24/7 to put you in bad form but trying to be serious there has been a lot of breakups over the last year.

So now if the family unit is splintered and not even taking the older kids (24+) who would like their own pad this family unit will now need 2 properties one for dad and one for mum so its not a zero sum game anymore. Below are just a few links out of dozens about breakups during corona.

https://boycekelly.ie/divorce-rates-...irus-lockdown/

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30993808.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-53327738

https://www.psychologytoday.com/ie/b...ve-second-wave

https://www.insider.com/what-its-lik...andemic-2020-4

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...ship-1.4271562

Last edited by fliball123; 29-10-2020 at 13:55.
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29-10-2020, 13:47   #8078
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But wouldn't that just result in a zero-sum i.e. if someone sells to buy another home, the two homes just cancel each other out and has no impact on the supply/demand dynamic.

If that reason is true and it does make sense, the reduction in supply is probably not as big a deal as many believe. It basically just leaves the FTB in the market and that should result in them getting better deals as they're the only buyers around (if that reason is true).
Why do you think that would mean FTBs would be getting a better deal? The amount of FTBs isn't static, there is constantly new FTBs entering the market and if there's a limited supply available for them to buy demand for what is available increases.
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29-10-2020, 13:48   #8079
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We dont have any immigration but we dont have any emigration either.
There are a huge amount of ex air b and b's on daft.ie as it happens, they are just looking for 2 grand for 1 and 2 bed apartments and not getting any tenants in. Paying a mortgage is still significantly cheaper than renting a house so demand for properties remains high.
This might change somewhat when rent prices drop in early 2021
True you may be right with rent drops in 2021 sure only a prophet would know whats going to happen to the property market next year
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29-10-2020, 13:50   #8080
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Originally Posted by jill_valentine View Post
Rental market is the twilight zone at the moment, so the change is certainly visible there. The question is whether a critical mass of landlords can either hold out for 2019 rents with empty units or accept that they'll have to get less for the unit from now on, or whether they'll bow out of the rental game.
Well they have held out for 9 months already a lot of these landlords would be REITS and other big investment co.s I reckon they could wait it out no bother
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29-10-2020, 14:08   #8081
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Well they have held out for 9 months already a lot of these landlords would be REITS and other big investment co.s I reckon they could wait it out no bother
You could well be right. We'll see though. The guaranteed returns you used to get for rental properties aren't coming back for a very long time and there are a lot of risks and unknowns about how well that property will hold its value while you play the long game and pay for its upkeep.

At some point that investment money would work harder in something else. Whether we'll get to that point, we'll find out soon I think.
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29-10-2020, 14:24   #8082
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Few if any new builds have commenced since March. Those that were under construction at that time are the last new builds which will be on the market for quite some time to come. The trading up market is bedevilled by uncertainty. People are saving rather than spending. It is also extremely difficult and inconvenient to market and occupied property due to the restrictions and also messy and inconvenient to view property. All repossession cases in the courts have been halted since March, so again there are fewer properties from that source coming to the market. Demographically, household formations are occurring at a high rate due to the Celtic Tiger baby boom.
If that's true, that doesn't bode well for the 145,500 construction workers in Ireland. Construction workers are generally highly skilled and can move to the UK and start work pretty much immediately. Before anyone says it they're still building in the UK, many Irish construction workers have relatives where they can stay for the quarantine period and be working within two weeks from leaving Ireland.

More emigration, less demand for housing and so forth and so forth. If that is true that 'Few if any new builds have commenced since March' though.
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29-10-2020, 14:24   #8083
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You could well be right. We'll see though. The guaranteed returns you used to get for rental properties aren't coming back for a very long time and there are a lot of risks and unknowns about how well that property will hold its value while you play the long game and pay for its upkeep.

At some point that investment money would work harder in something else. Whether we'll get to that point, we'll find out soon I think.
Well the only thing I will say about your comment is that yes we will see anything can happen. But someone with a rental and having difficulty renting it out currently has the final option of giving their property to the government and getting 80/85% of the rental value for 20 years + , not sure where you would get that with other investments these days a state guarantee ROI and your property back to you the way you gave it to them. So while that is still an option and judging by the constant moaning from the left about the need for housing this option is going nowhere fast.
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29-10-2020, 14:30   #8084
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If that's true, that doesn't bode well for the 145,500 construction workers in Ireland. Construction workers are generally highly skilled and can move to the UK and start work pretty much immediately. Before anyone says it they're still building in the UK, many Irish construction workers have relatives where they can stay for the quarantine period and be working within two weeks from leaving Ireland.

More emigration, less demand for housing and so forth and so forth. If that is true that 'Few if any new builds have commenced since March' though.

Your a crack up you think Ireland is in isolation with regards to issues with construction and the building industry. The UK are having the same issues..so where do all of those workers go?? Poland, the US maybe Oz.. Your entertaining if nothing else. Once again a small snapshot of many links to issues with construction in the UK

https://www.onrec.com/news/news-arch...d-19-in-the-uk

https://www.ft.com/content/3c27d23e-...2-325adacdb929

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/h...rs-26-06-2020/

https://www.theguardian.com/business...virus-lockdown

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...tion-industry/
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29-10-2020, 14:32   #8085
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If that's true, that doesn't bode well for the 145,500 construction workers in Ireland. Construction workers are generally highly skilled and can move to the UK and start work pretty much immediately. Before anyone says it they're still building in the UK, many Irish construction workers have relatives where they can stay for the quarantine period and be working within two weeks from leaving Ireland.

More emigration, less demand for housing and so forth and so forth. If that is true that 'Few if any new builds have commenced since March' though.
You really are clutching here PropQueries.
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