Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

24567

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    I am currently on a large cruise ship 200 nm south west of Miami ! We'll surely get to Miami before this storm but I am not hopeful my 10pm Sunday night flight will be taking off ( or inbound will be landing ).
    Potentially means we'll have nowhere to go Sunday though !


  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭aisling86


    RobAMerc wrote: »
    I am currently on a large cruise ship 200 nm south west of Miami ! We'll surely get to Miami before this storm but I am not hopeful my 10pm Sunday night flight will be taking off ( or inbound will be landing ).
    Potentially means we'll have nowhere to go Sunday though !

    Cruise ship would hardly drop ye off right before a hurricane hits would it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 39,366 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I saw earlier that this is predicted to be a category 4 hurricane at landfall. That's a major hurricane and the east coast of Florida looks like it'll get a fair rattle.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    aisling86 wrote: »
    Cruise ship would hardly drop ye off right before a hurricane hits would it?

    It is due to drop us to Miami tomorrow AM - then head for the Bahamas, I presume that will reroute, but we'll be on land well before Dorian hits

    Hope to be in a hotel - or have got outta here before that !


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Latest sat image

    E8-E5-A1-A8-C189-42-D9-B525-B80631-D6-A63-E.jpg


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Just happens I am in Miami on Business , I may get to witness this one first hand !

    They are never a pleasant experience so careful what you wish for if it hits hard it’s very disruptive, even in a built up area rather than an island where it’s unbearable.


  • Posts: 0 Kori Fast Viewer


    06Z SHIPS forecast at +84 hours.

    112 kts, 70 km from land. SST 30C. Shear 7 kts. Storm speed only 4 kts, so hurricane conditions will last quite a long time in affected areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This will be a big one. Probably deserving of it's own thread?


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭J6P


    e2b948abb43d35714236b1d40852e812d3795cf886fc5116257c087d6b564c51.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭J6P


    GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,946 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh




  • Registered Users Posts: 39,366 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    This might be an incorrect observation but is the fact there is a lot of warm water between the hurricane and Florida and the fact that it's slowing down mean that it could be a category 5 hurricane by the time it gets to Florida ? They are saying it'll be a cat 4 but it's not expected to make landfall in Florida until Monday night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Getting into Peak Season and waves starting to appear on the W coast of Africa which the ECM is picking up as potential future Tropical Storms or Hurricanes and long long way off but where will the remnants of Dorian end up. Could run up along the Western Seaboard of the US with the remains of it coming across towards us steered by the Jet but that is probably for the FI thread.

    mELHNVu.gif

    b9P999D.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Getting into Peak Season and waves starting to appear on the W coast of Africa which the ECM is picking up as potential future Tropical Storms or Hurricanes and long long way off but where will the remnants of Dorian end up. Could run up along the Western Seaboard of the US with the remains of it coming across towards us steered by the Jet but that is probably for the FI thread.

    mELHNVu.gif

    b9P999D.png

    I live in the area for these impacts where can I get those charts on top showing the verde activity


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    BumperD wrote: »
    I live in the area for these impacts where can I get those charts on top showing the verde activity

    Loads of resources here for you to go through.


    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/



    https://meteologix.com/ie

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Loads of resources here for you to go through.


    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


    Thats the one thank you sir


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Overall this year, global tropical stats are running well below average. The North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is about 35% down, as are Named Storm and Hurricane Days. With the season peak in the next week or two, we'll see if it can be backloaded to make up for lost ground.

    http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

    489621.png


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    two_atl_5d0.png
    More potentials to monitor. NHC
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

    1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
    system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
    continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
    expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
    generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
    today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
    Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
    system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
    depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
    slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
    Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
    south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
    thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
    does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
    this system is possible during the next few days while the
    disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
    in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
    Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
    Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
    this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
    west-northwestward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    Forecaster Zelinsky


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Tropical Storm Fernando has formed in the western Gulf and will move westwards into Mexico later tomorrow as a weak storm of around 45 knots. Rain is the main threat.

    Tropical Depression 8 has also formed near Cape Verde and will move northwestwards over the next few days. Cool waters will limit its development, but further out the uncertainty is high.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Tropical Storm Gabrielle has formed from TD 8 and will move northwestwards over the mid-Atlantic over the next 5 day, staying a TS.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Gabrielle is now expected to briefly attain hurricane status before heading towards our neck of the woods. NHC come currently indicates that it will become post-tropical well before it gets close, but has the potential to hit us, track very close to our Northern coast, or pass well to our North depending on how it plays out. I think after Dorian we’re all aware not to assume anything this far out :D

    I haven’t had a chance to look at any model runs yet today, but what do ye make of this?

    qais8jf.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    MJohnston wrote: »
    There's a separate hurricane season thread that might be more appropriate

    Thanks for the tip. I shall henceforth post in the more appropriately named '2019 Atlantic Hurricane Thread' instead...

    ECMWF meteogram for Tokyo. Gust speeds of up 100 knots projected for the early morning period with 24hr rainfall totals over 120mm.

    bAztB8d.png

    Worst impacts of the storm forecast to hit ares further south from Tokyo.


    6hr Sat loop from JMA up to 9.10z (large file)

    0VD8cmp.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest

    20190908.0816.f18.x.composite.14WFAXAI.110kts-945mb-330N-1390E.046pc.jpg

    Latest wind observations

    https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/206.html?elementCode=1

    TAF for Haneda Airport in Tokyo Bay. 60 gust 75 knots later


    TAF RJTT 080505Z 0806/0912 10018KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030
    BECMG 0813/0815 10028G38KT 4000 -SHRA BR
    TEMPO 0814/0817 3000 +SHRA BR
    BECMG 0815/0817 17045G55KT
    TEMPO 0817/0821 17060G75KT
    2000 +SHRA BR
    BECMG 0821/0900 21024G34KT 9999 NSW
    BECMG 0906/0909 19014KT


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Gabrielle is now expected to briefly attain hurricane status before heading towards our neck of the woods. NHC come currently indicates that it will become post-tropical well before it gets close, but has the potential to hit us, track very close to our Northern coast, or pass well to our North depending on how it plays out. I think after Dorian we’re all aware not to assume anything this far out :D

    I haven’t had a chance to look at any model runs yet today, but what do ye make of this?

    qais8jf.png

    The latest tracks have it passing close to our northwest on Wednesday but only as a 25-kt system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Kozushima Airport has reported a gust of 58.1 m/s (209 kph) and a 10-minute average of 41.6 m/s (150 kph) in the past hour.

    https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-44216.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=30


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    This is some wind report for close to a major metropolis. 63 gusting 85 knots at Tokyo Haneda airport a little while ago

    SPECI RJTT 081832Z 07063G85KT 0200 R34L///// R22/0250V0350N R34R/0200V0375N R05/M0050V0900U +SHRA BR FEW001 BKN003 BKN009 26/26 Q0968 RMK 1ST001 5ST003 7ST009 A2860 P/FR RI++=


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    90 knots at Tokyo's other airport at Narita, well to the east of the city.

    SPECI RJAA 082035Z 16056G90KT 0400 R16R/0125V0250N R16L/M0050V0800D +SHRA FEW002 BKN006 25/25 Q0975 RMK 1ST002 7ST006 A2880 P/FR RI++=


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Wind has decreased a lot in the past few hours. Looks like a typical wet and breezy morning now - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5U4AEiLt5U


Advertisement