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Storm Jake - 01/02 March - High Winds West Coast & Widespread Snow Risk

  • 29-02-2016 1:28am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Also Tuesday night could see a covering for some before dawn. We have been here before of course this winter but it's close enough to be reasonably confident.

    A complicated depression from the northwest moving over the country on Thursday is bringing some unusually cold air with it off the Atlantic. Should be snowfall to be had within the fronts associated with this. Higher ground is a given.

    And we need at least one scare mongering thread this season!:cool:

    More tomorrow.


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    Any charts pic's


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,126 ✭✭✭screamer


    I'll believe it when I see it. Till then I won't hold my breath.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    Where do you see this affecting Kermit?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Current GFS models show lying snow in many parts of the country on Tuesday night, except perhaps for the south and west coasts and also the south west part of the country.
    Will be interesting how the next run goes to see if the trend continues as it's usually around this run that things fall apart, if they are going to do so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    As I kinda expected, the latest GFS charts show a fairly big downgrade with regards to lying snow potential on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Fingers crossed that an upgrade pops up.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Pangea wrote: »

    I think this may in the wrong thread. This thread is for discussing "Risk of some significant snowfall Tuesday and Thursday nights".


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The BBC precipitation radar shows snow across, the northwest, centre, and down into Wicklow on Tuesday night. I hope it's not all gone by Wednesday morning. Sill there might be further chances on Thursday to see snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hirlam going for a very gusty night Tues night/Wed morn as a small trough bears down over the country. Positioning not nailed on yet though but given that the tightest isobar gradient will be occurring in a relatively cold air mass, actual gustyness would be noticeable and projected to peak early on Wed morning with potential for 60/70 knots on N/W Munster coasts.

    image.png


    Track of shallow low will be key but it could become wild in places for a short while if its track pans out something like this.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Hirlam going for a very gusty night Tues night/Wed morn as a small trough bears down over the country. Positioning not nailed on yet though but given that the tightest isobar gradient will be occurring in a relatively cold air mass, actual gustyness would be noticeable and projected to peak early on Wed morning with potential for 60/70 knots on N/W Munster coasts.



    Jeez. I hope the ferry at Holyhead won't be cancelled.

    Sea Crossings
    State of sea until 1800 Wednesday 02 March 2016
    Dublin - Holyhead Moderate to rough. Later rough.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Certainly could be a nice covering on high ground come Wednesday morning. With blowing snow in on peaks . ATM its seems like high areas of Donegal,Derry, boarder counties and also Wicklow mountains could see a few cms.

    NMM track for PPN
    379022.png

    T850s showing snow more likely below 300m in the north and above that elsewhere.
    379023.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,318 ✭✭✭✭Dial Hard


    Also Tuesday night could see a covering for some before dawn. We have been here before of course this winter but it's close enough to be reasonably confident.


    So which is it, "significant" or "a covering"? Big difference imo.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Dial Hard wrote: »
    So which is it, "significant" or "a covering"? Big difference imo.

    Probably neither.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Kermit did you call this to early or are you still fairly confident?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    perhaps central ulster has best chance of snow and some north midland locations

    then donegal and sligo except coastal


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Bit of an upgrade this morning
    Snow likely tonight across the country (esp northern areas) mild again Thursday before turning even colder Thursday night and Friday.
    Friday morning looks white


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Looking very marginal for West Clare! Might have some nice hills to look at Friday morning though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Met eireann talking about some accumulations tonight.
    Most likely get a yellow warning issued by midday.
    Wind gusts look potent for a short while


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Orange warning for west coasts regarding wind gusts, with status yellow warning for coastal counties of the west to be issued later ....wintry night ahead....

    STATUS ORANGE

    Gale Warning
    Westerly gales developing later today on coasts from Valentia to Erris Head to Malin Head, spreading to all sea areas tonight and increasing to strong gale force or storm force 10 on west coasts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    0902 update
    Tonight

    Showers will continue tonight and will merge to longer spells of rain, sleet and snow in places overnight with some accumulations in places. Some hail and thunder also. Extremely windy with gale force and squally westerly winds, stormy in some coastal areas of the west and southwest. Lowest temperatures between zero and 3 degrees Celsius, risk of icy stretches in sheltered areas.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    So it all comes down to how much PPN will be on the back side of the trough.
    The air should be cold enough for wintry ppn by evening time on high ground ( above 250m ) and then the colder air will move in during the night, 0c ISO term at 200m by dawn.
    I'd say accumulations are likely down to the midlands. 2-5cms , more on high ground(5-8cms). Elsewhere (except munster) should see mixed ppn apart from mountains along the east coast where accumulations are also likely.

    With wind gusts from 70-80 km possible overnight, any falling snow will easily bring blizzard conditions during that time frame... IMO this may warrant an Orange warning instead of just a yellow from Met Eireann.




    9pm
    379084.png
    12am
    379085.png
    6am
    379086.png
    ISO
    379087.png

    WIND
    379088.png

    Showers quickly turning back to rain from midday...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    MET OFFICE Yellow Warning just issued
    Warning
    Showers will turn wintry this evening across the warning area, with the risk of a more prolonged spell of snowfall late in the night and early Wednesday morning, especially in the south. This will give a covering of snow with 2-5 cm possible in many places and locally 5-10 cm, these higher accumulations mainly above 100 m. Icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements are also likely to form.

    Please be aware of some difficult driving conditions and the potential for travel disruption into the Wednesday morning rush hour.

    Chief Forecaster's Assessment

    A cold front will move east and south across the United Kingdom through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will introduce significantly colder air with frequent showers these turning readily to sleet and snow even at low levels. 2 to 5 cm is expected in many areas by dawn Wednesday with up to 10 cm in places. These higher accumulations are more likely over higher ground above 100 m but may also occur to low levels where showers are heavy and prolonged. Clear spells between showers will also lead to icy stretches forming on untreated surfaces.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1456790400&regionName=ni


    UPDATE - Met Eireann , yellow warning issued.
    STATUS YELLOW

    Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
    Heavy snow showers are expected overnight leading to accumulations of 3cm in parts of Connacht, Ulster and Leinster, larger accumulations likely on higher ground

    Issued:Tuesday 01 March 2016 11:00
    Valid:Tuesday 01 March 2016 22:00 to Wednesday 02 March 2016 09:00

    Wind Warning for Ireland
    Westerly winds veering northwest overnight are expected to reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h.

    Issued:Tuesday 01 March 2016 10:00
    Valid:Tuesday 01 March 2016 20:00 to Wednesday 02 March 2016 10:00

    Surprised they don't mention blizzard conditions with having both warnings up separately, perhaps a bit too alarmist...


  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭aisling86


    I got a text from met eireann including cork in the Orange alert but not showing on the website, I wonder will we be included or excluded.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Will we have Storm Jake I wonder?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Met eireann status orange warning now issued for wind for following- Galway mayo limerick clare kerry and Waterford. valid from 10pm tonight


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Dial Hard wrote: »
    So which is it, "significant" or "a covering"? Big difference imo.

    Significant Covering!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,477 ✭✭✭Kamili


    I hope we get a little snow been looking forward to this. Although the wind doesn't sound good.

    Will be keeping an eye on this thread for further updates.
    Currently warm (10 degrees) and breezy here in DoooBlin!

    Every time I hear a status yellow snow warning I do start singing Watch out where the huskies go, and don't you eat that yellow snow... Don't be a Naughty Eskimo...

    (sorry!)


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC




  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭onmebike


    Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    onmebike wrote: »
    Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

    Too many false dawns here this year and I think everyone is very sceptical...... I will get excited when I see the flakes falling :)


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