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19-09-2020, 06:46   #5761
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 19 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September 2020

-- Temperatures will be near normal values, with a downward trend reaching 2-3 below normal near end.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see some cloud, mostly of higher types, spreading across the south, but some sunshine will continue to break through. The moderate east winds will cool off the eastern counties to around 15 C, while further west highs of 19 or 20 C are likely.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some fog patches forming and cool, with lows 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy again once any persistent fog dissipates, with somewhat less cooling from easterly breezes as they drop off to lighter values, highs still in the 15 to 20 C range.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with increasing lower cloud decks expected across parts of the north, leading to rain late in the day there. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 20 C.

TUESDAY will become quite breezy and considerably cooler with intervals of light rain followed by partial clearing, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

The outlook for mid-week and towards the following weekend is generally rather cool and occasionally wet as Atlantic frontal systems return. Highs will be in the 12 to 16 C range and nights sometimes close to frost levels.

There is still some uncertainty in the longer term forecast due to Teddy, which is still most likely to head north from near Bermuda this weekend into some part of eastern Canada then on towards Greenland as a remnant low. The current guidance does not show much left of Teddy's circulation by the time it gets past the middle of the Atlantic but that could conceivably change if the track is only a glancing blow of Newfoundland and not as earlier thought a longer run into the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland-Labrador.

The tropical action was fast and furious, with the Atlantic storm I mentioned getting the name Wilfred (it is not predicted to have much of a future), then a regular Atlantic low near Portugal briefly acquiring enough subtropical storm characteristics to snag the name Alpha, so that the Gulf of Mexico storm now has the name Beta. As happened in 2005, Beta shows signs of becoming a hurricane (Alpha peaked at 50 knots and dissipated overnight in the Iberian peninsula). This year's Beta is a month earlier than 2005 Alpha (the 23rd named storm of each season) but as I mentioned, this is no guarantee of outdoing 2005 by end of play, although clearly there is no hesitation in naming just about anything this year.
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20-09-2020, 06:25   #5762
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Sunday, 20 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest around middle of the period.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, most of it will fall around Wednesday into Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values, fairly good at first, then mostly cloudy until clearing somewhat late in the period.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be partly cloudy with some fairly generous sunny intervals especially further west, and with the easterly breezes dying out, some parts of Leinster will warm up compared to recent days, although the immediate coastal fringe will stay rather cool near 15 C. Highs further inland 19 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals and fog patches more widespread in some parts of the inland south and midlands. Lows 2 to 6 C.

MONDAY will have some sunny breaks then cloud will increase. Rain could begin to spread into some parts of the northwest by late in the day. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TUESDAY will become breezy and somewhat cooler with intervals of light rain, then partial clearing again, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers turning to a steady rain that might amount to 20 mm in places by the overnight hours, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, cool, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with only isolated showers, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weather will tend to improve and warm up slowly for a few days, but an even colder spell than next week's is looking increasingly likely by the first week of October.

My local weather was partly to mostly cloudy with a few brief showers, the smoke partly dissipating towards the later part of the day. Highs were in the low 20s. The tropical scenario is about the same as discussed yesterday, Teddy about to make a move north past Bermuda, Beta now looking more like a strong tropical storm than a weak hurricane, and Wilfred holding onto the small amount of strength he had before.
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21-09-2020, 07:15   #5763
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Monday, 21 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal, with the coldest days mid-week.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, most of it will come around Wednesday and Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal even though today will be well above that.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with increasing cloud from the north invading some parts of Connacht and Ulster. Also some persistent coastal low cloud and inland fog may not dissipate entirely until afternoon in some cases. For most places highs will be quite warm, 19 to 22 C. A few coastal locations could be several degrees cooler.

TONIGHT will see the cloud advancing south across all regions, followed by outbreaks of rain. About 3-5 mm can be expected by morning. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy and rain will alternate with brighter spells, with westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will become mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, showery at first, then heavier towards evening. Lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY some heavy rain is likely with 20-30 mm falls, then rain tapering to drizzle or scattered showers later on Thursday as rather chilly northwest winds set in. Lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated, slightly milder after a cold start, lows near 5 C and highs near 16 C.

The outlook for the weekend is for somewhat warmer weather to return, but with some rain at times as fronts will not be too far away at any stage. This unsettled and near normal pattern will continue into the final few days of the month.

Hurricane Teddy is passing Bermuda to the east, and will intensify one more time, before undergoing extratropical transition. By the time the storm hits eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, around mid-week, it will have lost its tropical nature but will still have some hurricane force wind gusts. The remnants will travel up towards southern Greenland and spin around near Iceland for several days. A frontal system passing to the south of Teddy's dying phases will gain some of its energy and arrive in Ireland near the end of the month. Only a moderately strong frontal system is expected at this point. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Beta continues a rather slow and sluggish drift towards the Texas coast and will come onto land by Tuesday morning.

My local weather on Sunday saw much of the recent smoke clearing away to reveal partly cloudy skies with localized showers, and highs near 19 C.
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22-09-2020, 07:17   #5764
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Tuesday, 22 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny in the south and east, with clouds spreading in by mid-day. A band of rain will follow, setting in this morning on the west coast and parts of the north, reaching the midlands by about noon, and the east to south coast counties by mid-afternoon. About 5-10 mm of rain is expected. Highs near 16 C west and north, to about 18 or 19 C ahead of the front in the east and south. Winds will increase to southwest 50-70 km/hr, shifting to westerly as the rain ends.

TONIGHT will see a few residual showers but partly cloudy skies in general, still rather breezy, lows near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers and moderate south-southwest winds, rather cool, highs around 14 C. Overnight into Thursday morning, expect some steady rain with 15-25 mm likely. Lows of about 8 C will feel rather chilly.

THURSDAY will be a wet and rather cold day with winds becoming northwest to north 40 to 60 km/hr, rain slowly tapering off to showers and drizzle. After the morning lows near 8 C, highs only 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will be somewhat improved with longer dry intervals between showers, and temperatures up slightly in the daytime after a morning low near 7 C, afternoon highs 14 to 17 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will both be fairly settled but cool days with temperatures staying a bit below seasonal averages, and chilly nights prone to some frost. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 15 to 18 C each day.

The outlook for next week is for a more unsettled pattern to develop within a day or two, with fast-moving windy and sometimes wet disturbances and temperatures remaining near normal at first, then dropping back to below average values later in the week.

The tropical situation remains about the same, except that Paulette has regained enough strength to be considered a tropical storm again, southwest of the Azores. The approaching Atlantic fronts will prevent Paulette from moving any further north than southwest Spain, and some guidance suggests the storm will loop back west after a couple of days. Teddy is taking aim on eastern Nova Scotia while Beta has moved inland over south central Texas.

My local weather remained smoke-free for a second day, and blue skies in the morning were followed by extensive cloud but despite an unsettled look, no rain actually fell around here. Highs were around 18 C.
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23-09-2020, 07:32   #5765
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Wednesday, 23 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal except 25-50 per cent above normal in the southwest.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a band of showers expected to move across Munster into south Leinster, just a few outbreaks of light rain by afternoon further north. Rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C. About 2 to 5 mm rainfalls.

TONIGHT will become wet and windy, with some bursts of heavier rain especially in Munster where 15-25 mm is likely. Winds will increase to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr across the south, veering to northwest 50-80 km/hr on Atlantic coasts by morning. These stronger winds will not appear inland or in the east and north until closer to mid-day on Thursday. Overnight lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will then become quite windy in all other regions, west to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle. A further 5-10 mm of rain will be widespread, with mostly cloudy skies and a slight risk of thunder in the south. Highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will see only slight improvements with gusty west to northwest winds at times, passing showers, and temperatures in the range of lows near 8 to highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will bring some rain at times, but also some brighter intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY could start out dry but cloud and some rain will follow, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain and highs near 15 C.

The pattern looks unsettled into the first part of October but there are signals for a more settled interval around the second week of October as blocking high pressure to the east or northeast may resume for a time then.

Post-tropical cyclone Teddy is heading for a landfall in eastern Nova Scotia, despite the very strong winds and large waves reported near it on Tuesday, impacts are expected to be moderate once it does reach land. The remnants will move on through Newfoundland into the vicinity of southern Greenland and Iceland; the impacts for Ireland will be indirect, as these remnants will energize the pattern over the Atlantic and contribute to the later unsettled spells of weather.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with a high near 21 C, smoke seems to be slowly building up again as winds become more southerly, but it's not as bad as the earlier spell.
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24-09-2020, 07:28   #5766
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Thursday, 24 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, with some parts of the southwest about 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average only half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy across the south, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Some squally showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the inland south, with amounts variable 5 to 25 mm. Another band of showers will be circulating back from the east across north-central counties, as low pressure gradually works its way through the midlands to Leinster. Until the low reaches the eastern counties, stronger winds will be confined to the south and west coasts, but eventually all other regions will have a spell of windy weather by this afternoon, with frequent showers or intervals of rain. It will also be rather cold with highs only 13 to 16 C, and temperatures falling once northwest winds set in.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and wet with winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C. Expect a further 10 or 15 mm of rain by morning.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with the winds slowly moderating later in the day, passing showers and winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will be 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY some light rain will continue for a part of the morning in the south, but partial clearing will develop and the afternoon should be dry in most places, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a chilly start to the day but moderating temperatures by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking unsettled with some intervals of rain both days and highs near 17 C.

Later next week, a low will spread rain across all regions from north to south and it will be quite cool, highs 13 to 15 degrees. There are still faint signs of an improving trend into the second week of October.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain most of the afternoon and evening, highs only around 15 C, and feeling decidedly autumnal; not much change of colours in our deciduous trees around here yet though. For the first time in quite a while, there are no active tropical storms, as both Teddy and Beta have been moved into post-tropical categories, and Paulette's brief resurgence has also ended. The next named storm (if there is one) will be Gamma. There's no telling how far into the Greek alphabet we could go, since many seasons are only two-thirds done by this point.
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24-09-2020, 07:29   #5767
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Thursday, 24 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, with some parts of the southwest about 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average only half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy across the south, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Some squally showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the inland south, with amounts variable 5 to 25 mm. Another band of showers will be circulating back from the east across north-central counties, as low pressure gradually works its way through the midlands to Leinster. Until the low reaches the eastern counties, stronger winds will be confined to the south and west coasts, but eventually all other regions will have a spell of windy weather by this afternoon, with frequent showers or intervals of rain. It will also be rather cold with highs only 13 to 16 C, and temperatures falling once northwest winds set in.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and wet with winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C. Expect a further 10 or 15 mm of rain by morning.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with the winds slowly moderating later in the day, passing showers and winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will be 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY some light rain will continue for a part of the morning in the south, but partial clearing will develop and the afternoon should be dry in most places, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a chilly start to the day but moderating temperatures by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking unsettled with some intervals of rain both days and highs near 17 C.

Later next week, a low will spread rain across all regions from north to south and it will be quite cool, highs 13 to 15 degrees. There are still faint signs of an improving trend into the second week of October.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain most of the afternoon and evening, highs only around 15 C, and feeling decidedly autumnal; not much change of colours in our deciduous trees around here yet though. For the first time in quite a while, there are no active tropical storms, as both Teddy and Beta have been moved into post-tropical categories, and Paulette's brief resurgence has also ended. The next named storm (if there is one) will be Gamma. There's no telling how far into the Greek alphabet we could go, since many seasons are only two-thirds done by this point.
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25-09-2020, 07:20   #5768
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Friday, 25 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 Sept to 1 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, to 25 per cent above in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and cool with a few bands of showers mainly near both west and east coasts, but a few more isolated showers may develop inland too, and one or two could become thundery. Highs near 15 C, winds north-northwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will see extensive clearing except in west Munster where cloud will persist. Rain will skirt the southwest coastal fringes but won't make much progress inland. Where skies clear, some frost is possible, lows -1 to +4 C. Under any cloud, lows 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and clouds will break up after mid-morning where they may have been during the overnight in west Munster. Any rain in south Kerry or southwest Cork should quickly dissipate. Highs will be 13 to 15 C. Winds rather light generally under a ridge of high pressure.

SUNDAY will have another rather cold, clear start with scattered frost possible, lows -1 to +4 C. The day will see sunshine dimmed by increasing high cloud, highs 14 to 16 C. Light winds becoming southeast to south 20 km/hr.

MONDAY will have some early morning cloud and rain, then partial clearing to follow, and it will turn a bit milder with lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with rain at times by late in the day, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

Outbreaks of heavy rain are possible mid-week from a low that will circle around near Ireland, bringing variable conditions but bands of showers and some heavy rains embedded, temperatures close to 13 C.

The longer term outlook calls for rather chilly and unsettled weather around the weekend of 3-4 October (temps near 10 C) but after that, milder in southeast winds, rather frequent rain, temperatures generally into the 12-15 C range and not falling much from that range in the overnight hours.

My local weather on Thursday was cool with outbreaks of rain and a brief thunderstorm towards late afternoon. The high was only about 14 C.
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26-09-2020, 08:06   #5769
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Saturday, 26 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in most areas but east Ulster may pick up heavy rains (to twice normal values) around Thursday.
-- Sunshine will be generous this weekend then largely absent, the blend should be around 75% of normal overall.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny but cool in most places, with a little more cloud in parts of the north where isolated showers may drift in, but almost everywhere will remain dry. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with fog patches developing, and scattered frost again, as we have at the present time with some readings as low as -2, and this is likely to repeat in the same places. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will bring some morning sunshine then increasing cloud from the south and west during the afternoon, a bit warmer with highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will see a weak frontal system moving through during the late overnight and morning (for Leinster), then partial clearing will follow, with moderate southwest winds developing, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with occasional light rain by afternoon, lows near 3 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring some rain and increasingly strong winds by later in the day, with 5-15 mm rainfalls expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking very unsettled with strong winds from a deep low pressure system that at this rather early stage seems to be heading for a grand tour of Ireland and then Britain with winds initially strong from the southeast to east and later turning to westerly as the low reaches higher latitudes. East Ulster (or more so eastern Northern Ireland) will see some heavy rainfalls being closer to this low's core at times on Thursday and early Friday, further away the precipitation may be more showery but will mount up to 10-20 mm amounts at least. Temperatures will be in the 12 to 14 C range most of the time.

Once that low dies out over the following weekend, with residual cloud and showers continuing, more active disturbances are expected to follow in a rather chilly west to northwest flow from the North Atlantic. Temperatures may fall back to around 10 C with that.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light rain and chilly temperatures that were stuck in the range of 7 to 9 degrees at our elevation, and 10 to 12 C down in the valleys. We are supposed to get one more spell of fine autumn weather next week for a few days but it will be Tuesday before that sets in.
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27-09-2020, 07:26   #5770
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Sunday, 27 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 27 Sept to 3 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal but will be rather frequent after Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will average 75% of normal, thanks to a bright start, but it will become quite cloudy later in the week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny for part of the morning then clouds will gradually increase and thicken, more rapidly in the west and near the south coast. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT a weak frontal band of rain will cross the country with 3-7 mm rainfalls expected, moderate south to southwest winds, lows near 8 C.

MONDAY will bring gradual clearing from the west, with partly cloudy skies by mid-day in most areas after any lingering morning rain departs to the east. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY will be more overcast but generally dry with scattered outbreaks of light rain developing by mid-day, working gradually further east, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of light rain, 5-10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Moderate westerly winds at times.

THURSDAY will become more blustery with bands of showers and some locally heavy rainfalls but most places in the range of 5-15 mm, with temperatures steady 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will also be overcast and rather windy with scattered outbreaks of light to moderate rain, temperatures remaining steady 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY the low responsible for the unsettled weather is expected to make a final loop back to the south across western parts of Ireland, bringing some outbreaks of heavier rain followed by stronger northwest to north winds, temperatures near 10 C and possibly dropping slightly in western and northern counties.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold with passing showers, temperatures in the range of 5 to 9 C in some areas, to near 12 C south coast.

NEXT WEEK is looking cool or even cold and unsettled in a persistent northerly flow that may have one or two more disturbed intervals from frontal troughs, but generally not very pleasant for this time of year, temperatures often near or slightly below 10 C.

My local weather on Saturday was rather like that already, with mostly cloudy skies and a cold northwest wind, temperatures in the range of 6 to 9 C. While that's quite cold, it snowed here this time last year so ... some improvement anyway (that was considered freakishly early even up here in the hills, mountain summits are usually getting their first snowfalls around now). The tropical theatre has gone very quiet for a change, no signs of "Gamma" yet.
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28-09-2020, 07:26   #5771
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Monday, 28 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will begin with a few showers, generally light with 1-2 mm additional rain expected, then gradual clearing will develop from west to east, with sunny intervals by afternoon. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will become partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few isolated showers, highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out unsettled with some heavy rain showers moving through in the early morning hours, then variable cloud and somewhat fresher, cooler by afternoon, temperatures steady near 12 C.

THURSDAY will become quite cool and breezy with outbreaks of light to moderate rain, 5 to 10 mm generally, some heavier amounts in the south. Lows near 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking quite wet and windy as low pressure comes back from an earlier pass to the south after looping around over Britain, and this time moves through eastern and southeastern counties of Ireland, with moderate to strong northeast winds developing for most regions, bands of rain and the chance of sleet or snow on higher peaks. Temperatures will be stuck in the range of 7 to 11 C throughout.

By SUNDAY, some slight improvements but staying quite chilly with some sunny breaks and passing showers, highs only 7 to 10 C.

Most of the following week looks unsettled although the weather won't be wet or windy all the time, just for intervals when fronts are passing, and sometimes quite windy with bursts of heavy rain. So, a fairly typical autumn pattern with winds generally from the northwest except briefly southwest ahead of approaching fronts. Highs will be around 12 C on average, a little below early October normals.

My local weather started to improve with mostly sunny skies after morning mist, and the high reached about 13 C. Warmer weather is on the way here for most of the week. Skies were finally clear in the evening for a change, and I noticed that Mars is considerably brighter now than last time I was able to see it, also Jupiter and Saturn have begun their final approach to the December (apparent) conjunction (the real conjunction from a solar perspective is next week, but our angle to that will close down progressively after mid-October and it will appear from here that the conjunction is in mid-December). The moon was waxing towards full and will be close to Mars within a couple of days if you also get a break in the overcast one evening.
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29-09-2020, 07:39   #5772
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Tuesday, 29 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 29 Sept to 5 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in the west to about 50 per cent above normal in the east. Heaviest rain is now expected to be towards the end of this weekly interval.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 per cent of normal values, or lower in some places.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring increasing cloudiness after some sunny intervals this morning in the south and east. A few isolated showers will drift through parts of the north, but it should stay mainly dry until tonight for most other areas. Highs will reach about 15 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast and wet with 10-15 mm rain expected, with some heavier bursts after midnight. Lows around 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will see the morning rain tapering to showers with partial clearing by afternoon, cool and breezy, with highs around 13 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers or bands of light rain developing, cool with lows around 7 C and highs around 13 C.

FRIDAY will become rather windy and cool with the risk of rain turning heavy in the southeast but some uncertainty in the details, as a storm spins around over southwest England where flooding rainfalls are possible. Most of Ireland should stay in a relatively dry north to northeast flow, winds 50-80 km/hr, and chilly temperatures around 9 or 10 degrees.

The WEEKEND outlook is uncertain due to the rapidly changing forecast modelling of the low pressure to the southeast. If this spins around again on a wider arc for a second rotation, Ireland could get hit with some persistent heavy rainfalls by the weekend and into early next week. Forecast models are showing potential for 25-50 mm of rain in eastern counties over that time period. Temperatures would likely remain around 10 or 11 C but could edge up as milder air blows in from the east. This has to be regarded as a "most likely" outcome at this point and the forecast models could continue to change the scenario but most other possibilities are also unsettled and cool so that's the basic theme of the longer term forecast.

This unsettled spell shows no signs of breaking down through the following week, and some rather cold spells are indicated for later in the second week of the outlook period.

My local weather has improved to sunshine and relatively warm daytime temperatures near 15 C although it turns quite chilly after sunset. Still no tropical activity to report.
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30-09-2020, 07:27   #5773
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Wednesday, 30 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 30 Sept to 7 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest in the east.
-- Sunshine will average only about half of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rain will end soon in eastern counties, followed by variable cloud and isolated showers, rather cool, highs near 13 C. Winds moderate westerly 40 to 60 km/hr will ease later in the day. Any brighter spells will probably be most frequent around late morning as cloud increases from the west by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few light showers, lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and isolated thunderstorms, some prolonged and heavy downpours possible as there will be only slow movement of cells that develop, especially in some central counties, 10 to 25 mm rainfalls are expected. Winds rather variable will become northeast 20-40 km/hr across most of the northern and later central counties. Cool with highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and cool with chance of some rain at times in the southeast, generally dry and bright elsewhere with a mixture of sun and cloud, morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, some heavy rain may begin by evening moving from east to west, reaching Leinster and east Ulster well before midnight, further west it may not set in until Sunday morning. Lows near 4 C and highs around 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued heavy rain for a time in eastern and some central counties, potential for 20-40 mm in parts of Leinster, not as much further west where cloud will be more variable. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

The disturbance from the east will gradually weaken by Monday and there could be a brief dry interval before more rain arrives from the Atlantic in a resumed westerly flow. Then it seems likely to turn quite cool and unsettled with flow becoming increasingly northerly heading deeper into October.

My local weather has been sunny and pleasantly warm on Tuesday with highs reaching 17 C. Nights remain chilly with a slight frost likely, then back to warm sunshine each day through this coming weekend as we enjoy one last spell of late summer weather. I would share it if I could (but then we had the two weeks of smoke so it evens out).
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01-10-2020, 07:23   #5774
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 1st of October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near normal for most areas, to 25-50 per cent above normal in south and central Leinster.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy for most of the country this morning, with a few isolated showers gradually expanding coverage, then some heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms over central counties by afternoon. Rather cool with highs 12 to 15 C. Winds variable becoming northeast 20-40 km/hr across northern then central regions during the afternoon.

TONIGHT will continue unsettled with a few intervals of light rain becoming more confined to the south and east, about 5 mm in total expected. Lows 3 to 7 C with coldest readings further north.

FRIDAY will see outbreaks of light rain in parts of south Leinster but partly cloudy skies elsewhere in a stronger northeast wind flow of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs around 12 to 14 C. ... Storm "Alex" will be bringing strong winds and heavy rains to parts of France and southwest England but only some later phases of this complex disturbance will reach Ireland on the weekend.

SATURDAY much of Ireland is still expected to be in a dry slot between the circulation around storm Alex and its spin-off secondary low in southern England, and stalled fronts out in the Atlantic. This could change closer to the time but it currently appears that Saturday should be a fairly dry and at times sunny day with risk of some outbreaks of rain confined to a few coastal margins if at all. Lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY the rain will push in finally from the east, and it may become rather heavy at times by the morning hours into mid-day especially across southern counties of Leinster. There will be much less rain and only partial cloud cover further west and north. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 12 to 15 C. Rainfalls of 20-40 mm possible in a few areas. Moderate northeast winds will back around to northwest later in the day.

MONDAY will see the westerly flow resuming with partly cloudy skies and a few showers, highs near 14 C.

For the rest of next week, unsettled and possibly becoming stormy later in the week, as a deep Atlantic low forms and moves fairly close to Ireland around Thursday (or overnight into Friday). Temperatures will remain near or slightly below seasonal normals.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and warm on Wednesday, the high reaching 21 C.

There are now some signs of a new tropical storm (Gamma) forming around this weekend in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula and moving into the east-central Gulf of Mexico.
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02-10-2020, 07:23   #5775
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 2 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, possibly a bit below in parts of west Munster, trending to 25-50 per cent above normal in Leinster and Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals likely in north central counties, the midlands and west Munster. A few more intervals of light rain may develop near the southeast coast and there will be scattered showers moving in from the Atlantic into west Ulster and north Connacht. Winds will increase steadily to northeast 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near the east coast. Rather cold with highs only 11 to 14 C, somewhat moderating towards the southwest coast.

TONIGHT will become less windy and skies will be clear in some areas, partly cloudy elsewhere, with isolated showers dying out. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will be a case of a dry and in some places sunny regime being slowly eroded from both sides as cloud from the distant storm "Alex" begins to back up to the west over Britain and towards eastern Ireland, while Atlantic disturbances try to break in from the west. As a result, settled weather is most likely to persist to the evening hours away from both east and west coasts, and most likely to develop towards unsettled conditions along those coasts, but there is still some uncertainty on the timing, more reliable is the idea that by Saturday night the dry conditions would break down entirely as the eastern frontal band becomes dominant and pushes through into Ireland bringing some heavy rainfalls with it overnight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will peak around 12-15 C on Saturday and will not drop very much overnight except perhaps in west Ulster and west Munster where cloud will not be as widespread.

SUNDAY the rain will continue to mid-day or early afternoon before tapering to showers in Leinster and Ulster, and some will spill over into parts of Munster and Connacht although further west rainfalls will be much lighter. By the time this event is done, 20-40 mm of rain is likely in parts of Leinster and there could be some localized flooding as a result. The rain will continue and possibly get heavier in east Ulster towards the end of the day, but other areas will then be into a west to northwest flow off the Atlantic with a few showers, and gusts to 60 km/hr. Temperatures throughout will be around 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY looks rather unsettled too, the remnants of an Atlantic frontal system trying to plow into the mess left behind by Alex will be sheared apart but there will be enough of it left to bring scattered heavy showers and moderate wind gusts at times, with temperatures still rather steady around 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will remain somewhat unsettled in a generally northwesterly wind flow, as the old remnants of the weekend storms slowly edge away from Scotland into the farther northern latitudes of the Atlantic towards Iceland, but around FRIDAY it is possible that the old storm centre will redevelop northwest of Ireland and move back in for a last go-round of wind and rain, to be followed by a cool but more settled interval as higher pressure finally gets a chance to build up around the weekend of 10th-11th. That would likely be a rather cool and frosty interval with highs around 10 to 12 C and lows several degrees below freezing in some areas.

That more or less introduces the subject of the October long-range forecast, would expect that all of those developments would likely be followed by further stormy episodes and intervening cool anticyclonic periods, overall it seems likely to be a cooler than normal month with heavier than average rainfall.

My local weather on Thursday became overcast from a warm front and some trapped smoke layers higher in the atmosphere, still rather warm although the cloud kept the temperatures down a few degrees at 16 C, looking like more sun will get through in coming days and boost us back towards 20 or so. Meanwhile, there are fairly strong indications that Tropical Storm Gamma may form at any time in the western Caribbean and if it stays away from land it could move through into the Gulf of Mexico by next week. Weaker signs exist for a following wave to become "Delta" at some point early next week, in the central Caribbean perhaps.
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