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General election betting

  • 15-01-2020 8:19am
    #1
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭


    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .


Comments

  • #2
    BoldReason
    Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    Seems like this should either be moved to the politics or the general gambling forum.


  • #3
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=684


  • #4
    carq
    Registered Users Posts: 854 ✭✭✭carq


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .


    Whats the bet here - FF to be largest party at 8/11?


  • #5
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    carq wrote: »
    Whats the bet here - FF to be largest party at 8/11?

    I would not be underestimating fg. They are even money.

    Anything can happen , it will be a dirty campaign.


  • #6
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    I'd say FG will target Martin and constantly point out that he set up the HSE and was in the cabinet the time of the economic crash etc.

    They will paint him as yesterdays man.


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  • #7
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    Interesting read, but not sure how it relates to horse racing?


  • #8
    Hello 2D Person Below
    Registered Users Posts: 13,755 ✭✭✭✭Hello 2D Person Below


    I've had a little nibble on FF/Green/Ind @12/1.


  • #9
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 75,156 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Moved from Horse Racing


  • #10
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    yaboya1 wrote: »
    Interesting read, but not sure how it relates to horse racing?

    Fair enough but Horseracing punters might bet on another event i thought. Id take an 8/11 winner in any discipline.


  • #11
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    "Time for a change"

    Housing (The poor homeless tent chap from yesterday, now has life-changing injuries.)
    Health (More trolley records broken, take up Reiki or find a good chickenbones witchdoctor, if you can.)
    Insurance (Can't be bought, competitively. Slip on a grape? Congratulations.)
    Crime (It's all gone 'mafiosa'. If out in the sticks, lock your doors.)
    Illegal migration (Why so many war-torn {not at war} Albanians?)
    Childcare (€€€ costs and scandals.)

    FF. (Most seats) bit short, outside of accas (BP@1.73).
    However 3.5wks is still a long time in politics, and a Saturday event could be a unknown variable.


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  • #12
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    FF (most seats) now down to between 1.44 and 1.5, starting to look like they have it in the bag.
    Election day might well be 1.25-1.33 (as suggested 1/3 above) type of price, the way the country is going.


  • #13
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Reduced further again, now just average of 1.20 for FF most seats.
    The best price from just a few days ago (1.73) appears to be long gone.

    G1FDp8g.png


  • #14
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,373 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Great shout, I had debated putting a 100 quid at 8/11 on it but prevaricated to my folly.


  • #15
    PieOhMy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,530 ✭✭✭PieOhMy


    Gianna Future Shag wrote: »
    Reduced further again, now just average of 1.20 for FF most seats.
    The best price from just a few days ago (1.73) appears to be long gone.

    G1FDp8g.png

    Got on at 1.5 myself but the previous day I went to a ladbrokes shop to get the 1.73 but they told me that was a uk price and they dont do irish politics here. The 1.5 was in paddy as was the only other shop around me.


  • #16
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I would be hedging the FG price if I was anyone on FF at anything around evens. It is still 3 full working weeks until the election, so much can happen and these prices will change. It is a great opportunity for anyone on FF at some of the more juicier FF prices to buy themselves a free bet.


  • #17
    franglan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,364 ✭✭✭franglan


    3/1 Leo to stay on is great value for me. Thoughts?


  • #18
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    franglan wrote: »
    3/1 Leo to stay on is great value for me. Thoughts?
    This singular source of 4.0 is a significant advantage over anywhere else, could be a useful acca builder offset (if already got FF 1.72+).

    As a small 'wildcard' option would also add the 8.0 for Warren (for DN) across the pond. Think she'll easily beat the two leaders (the old man and creepy hair-sniffer). Ultimately DT will easily win again, but these are longer term markets.


  • #19
    Trimm Trabb
    Registered Users Posts: 1,959 ✭✭✭Trimm Trabb


    Anyone like to speculate on make up of next gov?

    Martin 1/16 to be leader but how will he get his 80 seats?


  • #20
    Kh1993
    Closed Accounts Posts: 443 ✭✭Kh1993


    Trimm Trabb wrote: »
    Anyone like to speculate on make up of next gov?

    Martin 1/16 to be leader but how will he get his 80 seats?

    Small bet on FF-Lab-Green-SocDems at 14/1 with PP. My own prediction would have that lot getting 75-80 so could possibly need an independent or 2 too. But good value I thought.


  • #21
    Trimm Trabb
    Registered Users Posts: 1,959 ✭✭✭Trimm Trabb


    Kh1993 wrote: »
    Small bet on FF-Lab-Green-SocDems at 14/1 with PP. My own prediction would have that lot getting 75-80 so could possibly need an independent or 2 too. But good value I thought.

    That’s what I backed too.

    Based on their rules if there is independents involved in that coalition it would be a winner as long as none of the independents are ministers.


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  • #22
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Trimm Trabb wrote: »
    That’s what I backed too.

    Based on their rules if there is independents involved in that coalition it would be a winner as long as none of the independents are ministers.

    You would have to worry about either Shane Ross or Katherine Zappone assuming either get in. They would definitely be looking to be in the picture if they support a government.


  • #23
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 13,988 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Pearse doherty highest first prefs, was 10/11 last night, now 8/11 on boyles. Paddys market on same seems to be suspended.

    He's going to get somewhere between 1.5-2 quotas.


  • #24
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 13,988 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    retalivity wrote: »
    Pearse doherty highest first prefs, was 10/11 last night, now 8/11 on boyles. Paddys market on same seems to be suspended.

    He's going to get somewhere between 1.5-2 quotas.

    Balls...21,044, 2nd to Denise Mitchell with 21,344


  • #25
    declanflynn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Ff are 5/6 to have under 45.5 total seats, experts are saying their total will be 42, could be a good bet


  • #26
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .

    In hindsight, this was a great shout as it went off about 1/10 (and won too obviously).
    However, given the margin of victory and the manner FF crawled over the line, it would appear the 5/6 at the time of the tip was a fairly accurate price.


  • #27
    Frozen Veg
    Registered Users Posts: 512 ✭✭✭Frozen Veg


    Is another election not very very very likely now?


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