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Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan
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Hhagibis has made a much earlier turn north and even north-northeastwards by almost half a degree in the past few hours, despite the forecast of it continuing north-northwestwards for the next 24 hours (above). Satellite fixes at 16:20Z and 17:30Z were longitude 139.71E and 139.79E, respectively. The latest sat image at 19Z has it at around 139.90E, which is a difference of about 40 NM compared to where it should have been (around 139.20E)
It seems more than just a wobble. Will it mean it will miss Japan completely? We'll see...
16:20Z
17:30Z
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Iwo Jima, that first island around 190 NM to the northeast of the eye in the image below, is getting pretty windy now. Mean speed southeasterly 46, gusting 74 knots.METAR RJAW 092100Z 12046G74KT 3500 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 OVC010 27/24 Q0990 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 8CU010 A2924=
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Just looking at the latest guidance (below), it looks to me as though:-
- this could still affect (but not cancel) the Irish match (see discussion on the yellow circle on the map below)
- it looks to me as though when they are making a call on the Japan v Scotland match (6 hours before at latest) there could still be a decent wind blowing in Yokohama which must heighten risk of cancellation if the main part of the storm (landing ca. 24 hours before the match starts) is very strong and causes damage
- Just comparing the latest guidance with the track predicted last night, there looks to me as though there has been a pronounced shift west in the predicted track. The further west it tracks the more it could affect the Ireland match and the later it arrives in Tokyo (heightening the risk of the Scotland game being cancelled)
On the chart below the times are UTC (same time as Ireland right now) so Japanese times are +9 hours. Thus you can see that at 6am UTC on Saturday (3pm Japanese time) the storm is approaching Japan. At that stage, crudely, it is about 500km from Fukuoka where Ireland are playing at, I think, 8.45pm Japanese time. It then moves north east along the coast towards Tokyo / Yokohama and away from the Ireland match. Thus it should be 750km+ from the Irish match by kick off. Any further correction west in the track, or slowing down of its arrival time, could lead to a fair bit of wind and rain for the Irish match though. Not sure if there is a roof in the Fukuoka stadium?
Current landfall near Tokyo seems to be slated for, crudely, 12 noon UTC / 9pm Japanese time on Saturday night. Looking at the diamater of the red cone (denoting the areas that can expect 50 nkot+ winds) and the diameter of the yellow circle (showing areas that can expect 30 Knot+ winds), it looks as though the winds may not abate below 30 Knots in the Tokyo area until the early afternoon on the Sunday, with the Japan v Scotland match kicking off at 8.45pm local time.
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Latest update below. Track seems a little further east so can't see this having any effect at all on Irish match. Still a direct hit for Tokyo area with landfall ca. 9pm local time on Saturday night with gusts of 120 knots (thats 222km) at that time. That's serious stuff. Will be clear of Tokyo by the time of the Japan v Scotland the following night, but not that long clear and there is bound to be a lot of debris etc around. I'd say much more likely to be cancelled than not if this chart comes to pass....
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Poor Iwo Jima's still getting battered by gusts up to 90 knots, and that's been going on for almost 24 hours (since 20Z yesterday).METAR RJAW 101500Z 17050G79KT 3200 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 BKN010 26/25 Q0985 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 7CU010 A2911=
METAR RJAW 101200Z 17057G90KT 2000 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN005 OVC010 25/24 Q0982 RMK 2ST002 5ST005 8CU010 A2902=
Latest track has it landfalling at 85 knots somewhere near Shimoda at 12Z on Saturday. Interaction with land should weaken it a bit before it hits Tokyo proper.
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The upper outflow bands are now well over Japan.
There is about a 150-NM tongue of much lower ocean heat content for the centre to cross in the final hours before landfall. We should see a very torn and semi-transitioned system by that stage, with the worst of the winds to the east of the large metropolis of Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama.
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The latest JTWC track has it right in Tokyo Bay at 12Z tomorrow at 80 kts. The main metropolis just a few miles to its NW. The 64-kt wind radii are only valid over open water, but gusts should still be in the 80-90-kt range.
The structure now shows it totally open on its southern side, though standard satellite imagery gives the false impression that it's still intact as it's only seeing the upper cirrus shield.
37 GHz (shows low cloud and rain)
89 GHz colour (shows deep convection in red).
Latest wind field shows max wind 104 kts 18 NM to the NE of the centre.
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