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31-03-2019, 22:50   #16
Joe Public
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Joe Public_________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 __ 99 __ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0mm _ 5.6h
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31-03-2019, 23:50   #17
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Tae laidir _______ 8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 __ 115 __ 95 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h
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31-03-2019, 23:56   #18
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waterways _______ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 __ 91 __ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2h
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01-04-2019, 00:22   #19
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01-04-2019, 00:36   #20
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Jpmarn _______ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8h

The first week is like old March being rather cold and unsettled.
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01-04-2019, 08:10   #21
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01-04-2019, 15:02   #22
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BLIZZARD7 _________ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 __ 070__ 120___ 21.0 _ 0.0mm _ 8h
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01-04-2019, 21:14   #23
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for April, 2019


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dublin 21st


Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 9.0 _ 23.2 _ -2.0 _ 101 _ 110 ___ 17.5 _ 0.5 mm _ 5.5 h

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 19.0 _ 0.0 mm _12.0 h

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

Mr Skinner ______________8.7_ 20.0 _ -3.3 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.3 _ 0.5 mm _ 7.2 h

DOCARCH ______________ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9 h

Bsal ___________________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0 h

waterways ______________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 _ 091 _ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2 h

John Mac _______________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8 h

sryanbruen _____________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 075 _ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.9 h


___ Normal _____________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8 h


Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 14.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.1 h

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) __ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 21.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

Jpmarn ________________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8 h


___ Con Sensus _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 15.7 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.1 h


dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 5.0 h

200motels ______________8.2 _ 20.5 _ -3.1 _ 088 _ 087 ___ 16.3 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.5 h

Artane2002 _____________8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8 mm _ 7.2 h

Sunflower3 _____________8.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.0 h

YanSno ________________8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 6.5 h

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5 mm _ 6.8 h

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 097 ___ 18.0 _ 1.0 mm _ 8.5 h

Dacogawa ______________7.9 _ 21.1 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.0 h

Joe Public ______________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.6 h

JCXBXC _______________ 7.7 _ 20.1 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 13.8 _ 3.0 mm _ 1.0 h

Pauldry ________________7.7 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

mickger844posts ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 12.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 3.5 h

________________________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts or average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

Rikand, max sunshine possible is about 13 hours, I went with 12 for you in case that recorder is shaded a bit.

The consensus for 21st (Dublin) is for a rather warm day with half the field predicting no rain (the median was 0.05 mm rounded up to 0.1). Those 12 are going to score the same and it hurt my brain to try to figure out what that meant for scoring. If there is no rain (or a trace) then these will all score 3. If there is a very small amount, they may also score 3 if they tie for any place better than 5th, otherwise, I think we'll have to go with them all at 2/3 with 5 to 8 only at 3/3. If there are four or fewer that have larger errors, those will bring in these zero forecasts at 1/3. If there are 5 to 8 that have larger errors, those will score 1/3 and the zero forecasts will all be 2/3. As the fourth and fifth highest rain forecasts are 2.0 mm, this is the breakdown for amounts and scoring for the zero forecasts ...

Actual, mm ___ zero forecast scores

0.0 to 0.4 ____ 3/3

0.5 to 1.0 ____ 2/3

1.1 and above_ 1/3

Hopefully there won't be too many ties otherwise as I separate the groups into three for scoring.

(this is the order of precip forecasts for 21st) ...

0.0 (12) __ 0.1 __ 0.5 (2) __ 0.8 (2) __ 1.0 __ 1.2 __ 2.0 (2) __ 3.0 __ 3.2 __ 3.5

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-04-2019 at 03:09.
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01-04-2019, 21:16   #24
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I'm playing golf all day that day. I demand wall to wall sunshine!
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01-04-2019, 21:26   #25
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01-04-2019, 21:37   #26
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JCXBXC_______7.7 __ 20.1 __ -1.7__ 110 __ 105 __ 13.8 _ 3mm _ 1h

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02-04-2019, 03:09   #27
M.T. Cranium
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Thanks, now I think we have a full turnout and I have added Con Sensus to the table.
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05-04-2019, 09:34   #28
Tae laidir
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Moore Park -1.1 yesterday
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05-04-2019, 16:28   #29
Joe Public
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tae laidir View Post
Moore Park -1.1 yesterday
Corrected to -1.0 but doesn't beat Oak Park with -9.7
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05-04-2019, 19:04   #30
pauldry
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Looks like the mercy rule for all.

Though this morning it said -1.1c Oak Park.

In any case those are the temps till Midnight so prob -2 or -3 or -10
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