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Post-Tropical Cyclone BERTHA

24

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Ok it now looks a higher probability of intense rainfall on Saturday night and with the water table at a fairly high level there are real issues for the south and east potentially.

    ME's forecast is off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    Really not liking that most probable track, will cause serious trouble for anyone doing the RideLondon 100 on Sunday...

    Meteo News this am is desperately trying to downplay the effects, but it does look like high winds and heavy rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    GFS has just taken a big wobble towards the ECM solution!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yea, this track would be outside MetOs 10% risk northern track yesterday.

    This would look a lot more threatening in GFS meso WRF when it updates.

    Rtavn541.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest HIRLAM keeps it well to our south. Some strong winds in a narrow windfield heading for the far southwest of England here. Just a boring wet day here, but at least the strongest rain would stay offshore to the south, if this verified.

    VStn9UK.png

    HIRLAM usually handles these type of things better than the lower res global GFS, but still a couple of days away yet so things can change.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Met eireann getting concerned?
    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Munster and Leinster

    Risk of heavy rain on Saturday night and Sunday, mainly in coastal counties. Details uncertain at present.

    Issued:

    Friday 08 August 2014 12:00

    Valid:

    Sunday 10 August 2014 00:01 to Sunday 10 August 2014 15:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    12z model runs should give a clearer picture. I think the south and east are most at risk from significant disruptive rainfall. I think ukmo has it tracking too far south.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    vickers209 wrote: »
    Met eireann getting concerned?

    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Munster and Leinster

    Risk of heavy rain on Saturday night and Sunday, mainly in coastal counties. Details uncertain at present.

    Issued:

    Friday 08 August 2014 12:00

    Valid:

    Sunday 10 August 2014 00:01 to Sunday 10 August 2014 15:00

    Thats because the current HIRLAM track keeps the heavy rain off the coast, but any shift in the track further north would bring that rain onto the southern coastal areas.

    kFV3UQq.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    NMM 6z shows the potential for some very strong winds for the time of year ( 90km gusts at this time of year can bring down trees)

    nmmuk-2-52-0.png?08-13

    Wind Gusts @ 10m

    nmmuk-11-48-0.png?08-13

    Clearing eastwards

    nmmuk-11-54-0.png?08-13


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Nice animation from EUMETSAT showing the remnants of Bertha making their way towards Europe


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    NMM 6z shows the potential for some very strong winds for the time of year ( 90km gusts at this time of year can bring down trees)

    Oh and would ya look at that , im off work for a week on Sunday :D


    My storm chase senses be tingling ! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    First time in a while I have been anticipating a set of output.

    A very uncertain Forecast but potentially a significant weather event.

    -12z GFS isn't as intense as 6z.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This is serious rainfall.

    Rtavn424.gif

    42 hours out. Time for proper warnings.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The Lower res GFS picking up widespread 50mm with >60mm im parts.

    So interesting to see how high the NMM high res goes later

    54-777UK.GIF?08-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS is weaker and tracking a little further south than the 06Z.

    12Z HIRLAM maintains the southerly track, gales only for southwest England, and weaker on this run than the 06Z.

    BzNepFc.png

    Southerly track again keeps the heavy rain off the south coast here.

    UFkIWIT.png

    A non-event for here if that verified. A north shift in track and it'll be very wet and miserable in the south.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ Zechariah Better Stock-still


    The Lower res GFS picking up widespread 50mm with >60mm im parts.

    So interesting to see how high the NMM high res goes later

    54-777UK.GIF?08-12
    What about that bit to the east of Scotland earlier? Could it have any impact passing over here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,847 ✭✭✭Brown Podzol


    Just had a look at the forecast on Sat 24 and the heavy rain is forecast to move in over the southwest and move north over the western counties through Sunday. Any comments. Over here briefly from the farming where the weather dictates almost everything we do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Haven't been on here today and the last i read of this yesterday it seemed like it was passing to the south and practically missing us.

    Are we getting it now?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    BBC/Met latest sez it'll move along the south coast of England and up the east coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    BBC/Met latest sez it'll move along the south coast of England and up the east coast.

    Ive given up on them, i saw their forecast for last weekends rain and it was missing us here on the east coast and staying in the irish sea


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Haven't been on here today and the last i read of this yesterday it seemed like it was passing to the south and practically missing us.

    Are we getting it now?
    Wexford and Wicklow look risky.


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    met eireann have taken down their yellow weather advisory for tomorrow night/sunday for potential heavy rain in the south and east ... im assuming that means the models must be in agreement about the system staying to our south and heading into the english channel :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Wet wet wet with some high winds into Wales and brushing southeast coast in 18z

    gfs-2-36.png?18?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Gfs forecasting biblical rain for the south


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Quote the Eagle just now, on the 7.55 forecast on RTE Radio 1:

    '...showers die down for the weekend as a major storms passes to the south of us.'

    He sounded very confident??? It's only Monday!!!

    The Express says different...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/495557/UK-weather-forecast-tropical-storm-bertha-from-bahamas-to-hit-Britain :confused::D

    I see no mention of Ireland in the Express Article!

    The Eagle is correct so far.

    The storm will very probably pass to the south of us and then begin a northeasterly track into the SW of England before ending up in the North Sea.

    In such a development there is a possibility of some rain close to southeast coastal areas but the real action will be over Wales and England late Saturday, early Sunday and then parts of Scotland later Sunday into early Monday.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,621 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    piuswal wrote: »
    The Eagle is correct so far.

    Just to say that (me) discussing the merits of a forecast by The Eagle vs. The Express was very (very) much tounge in cheek! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Just to say that (me) discussing the merits of a forecast by The Eagle vs. The Express was very (very) much tounge in cheek! :)

    I'm quite new to these discussions so I don't understand the point being made but I'm assuming the Eagle is the Met Eireann forecaster who was on RTE a few years ago ! It's the comparison withe Express that I don't understand.

    Anyway, it will be interesting to see the exact track and consequences of the storm over GB.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Maybe a warning should be tacked to this thread for flooding tonight in the south, south midlands and east. Some intense falls of rain look likely in these areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    0Z ECM showing some heavy rain briefly crossing the far southeast. Looks nothing special at all here.

    140809_0000_27.png

    But the higher res 0Z HIRLAM is different, showing some heavy 50+mm of rain over the southern coastal counties.

    OikvEHq.png

    But then the even higher res EURO4 shows the heaviest rain staying south of Ireland.

    14081012_0900.gif

    I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Rain in Ireland, how exciting. :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    nmmuk-1-29-0.png?09-07

    Tough one to call.


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