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Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

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24567…14

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    #32
    naughto
    Registered Users Posts: 7,316 ✭✭✭naughto


    does mt have any mention of this storm??


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    #33
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    maquiladora wrote: »
    It's less than 48 hours out and there is good agreement between the main models on this event so a major downgrade at this stage is very unlikely. The track and exact intensity still has to be nailed though and that will determind who gets the windy conditons and who gets the stormy conditions.

    as i said im no expert an your the guys i look to for serious stuff but it seems ive read alot of threads with similar set ups with the low t o our north and its ended up shifting further north as it closes in on us ........is there anything different with this perticular set up that makes it different,met eireann are not giving any weather warnings for this and its only 48hrs out?


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    #34
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    NAE has 75mph sustained winds for parts of Western Scotland for a time.


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    #35
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This is as similar storm to the one that hit the Faroes a week or two ago, bringing 74 knot sustained winds. The good thing is these winds will be in an area with a lot more observing stations, so we should learn a good bit more from this one.


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    #36
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Lads i don't know about later this week but tonight is sure getting gusty! The lights flickered here too. Don't go by the weather station readings, its located in a nice cosy garden tucked away...:rolleyes:

    Oh lots on the weather forum lately... love this time of year :)


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    #37
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....


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    #38
    john mayo 10
    Registered Users Posts: 955 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    naughto wrote: »
    does mt have any mention of this storm??
    MT mentioned this storm last thursday in his daily weather report but it seemed to disappear and now its BACK !!!!


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    #39
    whitemocha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 135 ✭✭whitemocha


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....

    whats coming ???:)


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    #40
    whiteandlight
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....
    What's coming??


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    #41
    Ahorseofaman
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....
    What's coming?


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    #42
    eastmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....
    i 3rd that,whats comeing:rolleyes:


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    #43
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Santa! Who else? :D

    18Z GFS is showing another storm with stronger winds for Ireland next Monday/Tuesday.

    htiwjo.jpg


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    #44
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Latest from EMHI HIRLAM 18z run.

    hilwinds.gif

    Just to give the actual legend more detail and just to note, these are forecast mean wind speeds, not gust speeds which will be much higher!

    10m/s = 36km/h | 19kts | 22mph | BF 5
    13m/s = 47km/h | 25kts | 29mph | BF 6
    20m/s = 72km/h | 39kts | 45mph| BF 8 (Gale)
    23m/s = 86km/h | 47kts | 53.7mph | BF 9 (Severe Gale)
    30 m/s= 108km/h| 58kts | 67.1mph | BF 11 (Violent Storm ) :eek:


    Extent of strongest winds seem a little more south than earlier runs with the chance for gale to strong gales in many coastal areas of the country with potential for mean wind speeds to reach storm force 10 along the north coast (doubtlessly with damaging higher gusts). As for the Hebrides, looks pretty darn serious with sustained violent storm force winds. Very very rare to see that being indicated on these maps.


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    #45
    Ahorseofaman
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    link?


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    #46
    eastmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Santa! Who else? :D

    18Z GFS is showing another storm with stronger winds for Ireland next Monday/Tuesday.

    htiwjo.jpg
    wow now thats a storm


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    #47
    je55ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭je55ie


    OUTLOOK ... Make a will (if you believe the 00z GFS run) ... seriously, the model consensus remains unsettled and rather cool, but one model shows an epic windstorm on Thursday 8th into Friday 9th. I am hoping this is a typical model teaser because even 75% of this storm would be nasty. With the full moon in that time frame, energy levels are high and a storm surge would accompany such a storm on the west coast. We'll continue to track this potential which has to be rated slight at this time frame.
    ...... MT last week


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    #48
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Very very rare to see that being indicated on these maps.

    Yeah, we usually see that kinda stuff from the GFS at 5(+) days or so, but there is good model agreement for this to be quite severe for Scotland at least.

    Should be a really interesting one to follow. I just hope nobody exposed to the highest winds gets hurt or worse.


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    #49
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Yeah, we usually see that kinda stuff from the GFS at 5(+) days or so, but there is good model agreement for this to be quite severe for Scotland at least.

    Should be a really interesting one to follow. I just hope nobody exposed to the highest winds gets hurt or worse.

    We used to slag OwenC about his boasts about his local climate extremes, but when you look objectively at it, he was not all that wrong! :cool: But yep, let's hope this will be a fun, rather than a tragic event and that people will take due warning whether or not this storm potential plays or not as currently indicated.


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    #50
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Really interesting weather this month you have to admit, plenty of gales about.


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    #51
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    Really interesting weather this month you have to admit

    For Donegal, maybe..


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    #52
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    For Donegal, maybe..


    yeah its just the nomal run of the mill weather down here in the southeast:rolleyes:


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    #53
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Definitely has been interesting around here, just as I'm typing its gone from reasonably calm to very stormy with heavy hail! Strong storm and more snow to come before the week's out so can't complain :pac:


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    #54
    snow ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    For Donegal, maybe..

    Not too bad here either Deep... could do with more snow, very windy out tonight.


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    #55
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Harps wrote: »
    Definitely has been interesting around here, just as I'm typing its gone from reasonably calm to very stormy with heavy hail! Strong storm and more snow to come before the week's out so can't complain :pac:

    That's right, rub it in!!


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    #56
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    its getting a bit gusty here in Lucan too. Hope we get lots of wind, I love listening to it late at night.

    :p


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    #57
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Went from calmish evening to gale here in very short time. A taste of what's ahead for the week? :)


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    #58
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Latest windspeed forecast from DMI.DK

    184168.gif

    184169.PNG
    I have been looking at this particular model since 2008 and this is the first time I have seen the highest echelons of the legend actually being projected so close to Ireland.


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    #59
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    what im a little confused about lads is that this system is 48 hours away and still met eireann has no real warnings or reports on it at the moment on the website or on rte news surely there should be something about it even if its usual met eireann downplay stuff but theres nothing really saturday and sunday are forcast to be blustery and showery? not exactly what some people are sayin here im confused:confused:


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    #60
    Cul a cnoic
    Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭Cul a cnoic


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Went from calmish evening to gale here in very short time. A taste of what's ahead for the week? :)
    Same here in Annagry, NW Donegal coast only we had lightening thrown in the mix..


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    #61
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    what im a little confused about lads is that this system is 48 hours away and still met eireann has no real warnings or reports on it at the moment on the website or on rte news surely there should be something about it even if its usual met eireann downplay stuff but theres nothing really saturday and sunday are forcast to be blustery and showery? not exactly what some people are sayin here im confused:confused:

    Yep, a lot of things could change in the meantime since it is so far out but it does look increasingly likely that the north coast especially could see some very strong winds. From a meteorological stand point, the potential storm itself will be very interesting to watch, even if the worst of the winds miss us as it does look particularly vigorous and even potentially dangerous. With the lack of any real weather here in Ireland lately (with the exception of Donegal and Mayo of course!) we may as well have something to keep our interests up, even if the best worst of the winds keep from our shores.


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