Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
27-02-2020, 22:28   #76
Snow Garden
Registered User
 
Snow Garden's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 2,389
I am annoyed George Lee is reporting this storm. He'll ruin it.
Snow Garden is offline  
Advertisement
27-02-2020, 22:34   #77
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,066
Quote:
Swiss Meteologix is owned by disgraced Swiss meteorologist Joerg (not Jorge ) Kachelmann, a commercial 'weather salesman and/or weather showman', but quite interesting.
Must check it out more.

GFS 18Z Strong mean speeds as the strong winds move up along the coast, probably 90 to 100 km/h mean along the coast, gusting 130 km/h, maybe higher on exposed parts. Very strong inland in most areas gusting 100 to 110 km/h. And they are steady strong winds, not just blowing over with a front, most places getting the strongest winds for 3 or 4 hrs on avg I think, along parts of the coasts maybe 5 or 6 hrs with the strongest winds , remaining strong on coasts into Sunday.







Meteorite58 is offline  
27-02-2020, 22:34   #78
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 11,243
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
if anything tonights GFS is a slight upgrade for wind speeds compared to the afternoon run. Strongest wind speeds off the Galway and Mayo coasts and over land between Galway and Dublin. Irish sea between north Wicklow and Meath looks fairly rough as well.



Icon brings gusts between 150 and 180km/h into exposed and high ground parts of Donegal. Icon being as over the top as ever.

Gonzo is offline  
27-02-2020, 22:42   #79
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,066
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
if anything tonights GFS is a slight upgrade for wind speeds compared to the afternoon run. Strongest wind speeds off the Galway and Mayo coasts and over land between Galway and Dublin. Irish sea between north Wicklow and Meath looks fairly rough as well.
I think an upgrade all right and seems to be locking on to that track and strength more or less.

Going to be a wild day with every type of precipitation thrown at us and savage cold , more so after the relatively mild day tomorrow.


Meteorite58 is offline  
(3) thanks from:
27-02-2020, 22:42   #80
jobeenfitz
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 2,123
Would it be probable/certain that flight from Shannon to Spain at 3pm Saturday afternoon will be very delayed?
jobeenfitz is offline  
Advertisement
27-02-2020, 22:44   #81
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,844
Quote:
Originally Posted by pad199207 View Post
George Lee nailing it all “The Spanish noticed it first”
Jorge wept.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
27-02-2020, 23:22   #82
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobeenfitz View Post
Would it be probable/certain that flight from Shannon to Spain at 3pm Saturday afternoon will be very delayed?
It's likely that it will be delayed but not certain.
The storm looks like peaking before noon in the West so I would plan as normal
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
Thanks from:
27-02-2020, 23:25   #83
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,037
Might blow the coronavirus back to China if ICON verifies
pauldry is offline  
(4) thanks from:
27-02-2020, 23:31   #84
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,066
ARPEGE still further N but a bit closer to Ireland on this track , packs a nasty punch into the W on the this run. It might move the center further S bringing the stronger winds initially more towards Kerry and Clare before moving up along the coast.



Meteorite58 is offline  
Advertisement
28-02-2020, 00:11   #85
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,844
18z RGEM shows 949 mb at 06z near 55N 15W, centre off their grid by 18z.

This seems to be in line with GGEM guidance from 12z if perhaps a touch stronger yet.

If there are no downgrades by 00z runs, we may be hearing talk of red alerts. This storm appears to be planning to bring the core winds to the coast, unlike the great majority of these 950 mb type lows that peak somewhere out around 57N 18W.

There could be 90 knot or 150-160 km/hr gusts associated if this does max out.

Most guidance quite similar for track and timing. The low following (now in Maine-Quebec) is a "kicker" in old school parlance (a good wavelength between simultaneously deepening storms).

This could be the worst storm since Darwin the way things are developing (but with peak impacts somewhat further north than Darwin).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
28-02-2020, 00:21   #86
TimeLadsPlease
Registered User
 
TimeLadsPlease's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 408
Looks like it's going to be a wild weather weekend. Can we get a separate thread so I can talk shiiite about it without getting a warning?
TimeLadsPlease is offline  
(2) thanks from:
28-02-2020, 00:24   #87
Monkeynut
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 521
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLadsPlease View Post
Looks like it's going to be a wild weather weekend. Can we get a separate thread so I can talk shiiite about it without getting a warning?

Yes, and do it the opposite way this time.

Make sure the technical thread title isn't highlighted. So it helps to not lure chat into it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
This could be the worst storm since Darwin the way things are developing (but with peak impacts somewhat further north than Darwin).
Any predictions for Dublin? Or are we too south for the strongest!!
Monkeynut is offline  
Thanks from:
28-02-2020, 00:38   #88
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,844
Angle of approach seems to suggest Dublin not in the line of fire on this occasion, not to say it won't become very windy at times but this looks like it might peak at 55-60 knot gusts for Dublin even if 80 plus verified on west coast (south coast between those ranges, 70'ish).

Pointless to speculate more until we get a bit closer. This low by the way is currently showing up at about 51N 27W (from satellite and extrapolating CMC 18z with track) and in a few minutes I'll be seeing a map with an estimated central pressure at 00z but it's probably around 990 mbs dropping steadily but not yet rapidly. Not looking that well-organized yet, but here again, the majority of these storms seem to peak a bit too early to deliver strongest winds to Irish coast.

Will edit in or perhaps repost with the updated centre co-ordinates and pressure.

Here's a link to the satellite imagery, it should update automatically for later readers (check time stamp on map).

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite...x_1070_100.jpg

The "kicker" is at its peak of development now, much more sharply defined over eastern Canada. But bear in mind that Jorge is going to be 20-25 mbs deeper by Saturday than the kicker is currently over Quebec and Maine (it has twin centres now).

(added later 992 mb near 51N 29W on map although my estimate would fit the rest of the isobars a bit better so take yer pick.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 28-02-2020 at 01:09.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
28-02-2020, 04:46   #89
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,844
All guidance so far (00z models) showing upgrades to wind speeds on the order of 5-10 knots. Arpege for example has 140-150 km/hr hitting directly around Westport-Clifden. GEM and ICON also looking stronger, ICON may be closer to steady in comparison to earlier run.

If this continues expect red alerts for at least western counties. There's a tendency to downplay the potential for gust strength on south coast that I would not necessarily accept as "settled science."

Low centre appears to be rapidly developing now around 53N 25W.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
28-02-2020, 05:31   #90
Graces7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 25,809
Posts as always full of wisdom!

Many thanks to all. Forewarned is good.

Heavy rain on and off all night and deluging now; still more of a slow waltz than a frantic fandango as there is little wind.

Bitterly cold. .

All is permanently battened down out here....

Take care!
Graces7 is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet