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June 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

24

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Bonus Question Cork 0 Dublin 1. No precise high temperature posted for cork but the highest quoted hourly temperature is 15°C Dublin had 18.6°C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Ooops ! Sorry for late entry and thanks to Tina (Waterways) for alerting me. I had a house full of visitors for the last few days and it was bursting at the seams giving me no chance to think.

    Kindred Spirit ___ 14.7 ___ 27.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 75 ___ 140 ___ 8-22


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7___14.2___27.1___2.0___115___90___10-20


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2019


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (Cork vs Dublin)


    adam240610 _________ 14.8 _ 27.4 _ 2.2 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 13-17

    Kindred Spirit __ (-8) __ 14.7 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8-22

    MrSkinner ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 103 ____ 9-21

    Tae laidir ____________ 14.2 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 128 _ 095 ___ 14-16

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) __ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

    DOCARCH ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 110 ___ 10-20

    rikand _______________14.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12-18

    Joe Public ____________ 13.9 _ 27.7 _ 1.6 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9-21

    Dacogawa ____________13.8 _ 29.1 _ 0.7 _ 140 _ 092 ___ 12-18

    Rameire _____________ 13.8 _ 23.8 _ 2.5 _ 099 _ 124 ___ 14-16

    waterways ___________ 13.7 _ 28.2 _ 1.2 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 10-20

    200motels ___________ 13.7 _ 26.8 _ 2.7 _ 073 _ 088 ___ 13-17*


    ____ NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12-18


    john mac ____________ 13.5 _ 28.7 _ 1.2 _ 102 _109 ___ 11-19


    ____ Con Sensus ______13.5 _ 26.6 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 12-18


    Bsal ________________ 13.5 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13-17

    MT Cranium __________ 13.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

    Artane2002 __________ 13.4 _ 26.1 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 087 ___ 17-13

    sryanbruen ___________13.3 _ 24.7 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 13-17

    Sunflower3 ___________13.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.2 _ 130 _ 082 ___ 10-20

    JCXBXC _____(-2) _____13.0 _ 26.7 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14-16*

    Dasa29 _____ (-3) ____ 13.0 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 16-14

    Pauldry ______________13.0 _ 25.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 12-18

    Gonzo _______________12.9 _ 23.4 _ 0.5 _ 129 _ 082 ___ 13-17

    Jpmarn ______________12.8 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 10-20

    mickger844posts ______ 12.7 _ 23.9 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 10-20

    YanSno _____ (-2) _____11.2 _ 25.0 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 092 ___ 10-20
    _______________________________________________________________

    * Cork vs Dublin entries must add to 30, as stated in the thread, any that do not add to 30 are adjusted on assumption that Cork is as intended.

    25 forecasts (and NormaL), con sensus (median) takes 13th ranked forecast.

    For the bonus question, the count of forecasts was as follows. Your score will be 10 if you're right and one less for each day wrong (for one location, not adding the errors). Con Sensus and NormaL score the same way. If the result gives a lopsided scoring result a fair system will be devised instead.

    Cork vs Dublin __ frequency of forecast result

    8 - 22 _________ 1
    9 - 21 _________ 2
    10 -20 _________ 8
    11 -19 _________ 1
    12 -18 _________ 3 (and NormaL)
    13 -17 _________ 5
    14 -16 _________ 3
    15 -15 _________ 0
    16 -14 _________ 1
    17 -13 _________ 1

    ... so, while 10-20 is the most popular forecast, 12-18 is the consensus by median of all forecasts.

    ... two chose a majority of wins for Cork (it had been one, but Artane2002 in editing his first pick due to the 30 total situation went with a Cork majority)

    _____________________________

    The general consensus for the month appears to be near normal in temperatures, some bursts of heat, and more rain and cloud than normal, which is certainly how the first week is looking.

    Good luck to all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    15.0 v 18.1. 0 - 2.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    14.5 v 16.2. 0 - 3


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    13.1 v 11.9. 1 - 3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    13.1 v 11.9. 1 - 3.

    Cork scored it's first points on the 4 June. If forecasts are correct Cork could win another point today the 5th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    13.1c is hardly a temp to boast about in June


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    All scoring now declared final over in the May thread. This month is looking quite dire so far.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All scoring now declared final over in the May thread. This month is looking quite dire so far.

    The figures I gave for this months contest don’t make exciting reading. Some models however are inclined to see high pressure developing next week giving more settled weather. It probably be still on the cool side at first before it gets warmer. I hope the month will turn out somewhat better than my figures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    13.9 v 11.9. 2 - 3


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    13.8 v 15.3, 2-4 so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Moore Park dipped to 3.3 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Dublin airport appears to have recorded 2.0C last night


  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭waterways


    15.7 v 14.3, 3-4


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Bsal wrote:
    Dublin airport appears to have recorded 2.0C last night


    Confirmed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for the contest tracking, much appreciated.

    Here's the first week update ...

    IMT on 11.3 which is 1.6 below normal for the period.

    MAX has not been in contention yet (I hope) and MIN appears to be the 2.0 reported above at Dublin.

    PRC was 231% of normal, Ballyhaise was wettest at 413% and Valentia just 103% of normal. (JC also fairly close to average at 135%). This amount of rain guarantees an outcome above 55% anyway, so by end of this weekend we will probably have seen more rain in the month than all of May.

    SUN has managed 84% (502/600) despite all the rain.

    Bonus 3 for Cork and 4 for Dublin, so far. Today looks like Dublin might add another (has been to 16 on hourlies, Cork only to 15).


  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭waterways


    Bonus 3 for Cork and 4 for Dublin, so far. Today looks like Dublin might add another (has been to 16 on hourlies, Cork only to 15).


    A close run
    16.4 v 16.5, 3-5


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Claremorris reporting 2c atm.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭waterways


    13.6 v 16.3, 3-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Claremorris 1.8c brrrrrrrrrrrr


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That is now 1.2 C for the MIN at Claremorris, and a win for Cork (15.8 vs 15.1) making the score 4-6 now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Cork 5 vs Dublin 6 after 11th went 16.0-15.4 for Cork.

    At the rate this month is unfolding, the MAX could be a sorry number indeed. Somebody with access to data have a look and see what the MAX and mean for any station was in June 1972. That one was a very chilly month. CET was only 11.8, tied second lowest on record.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Thanks for the memories, MT. I froze in the Gaelteacht in June 1972. I remember a snow shower.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    12.0 v 11.1 Pretty low values for both places. Cork gets a point making even against Dublin 6-6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    GAA will hv to bring in the boards system to Leinster Championship


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Cork 5 vs Dublin 6 after 11th went 16.0-15.4 for Cork.

    At the rate this month is unfolding, the MAX could be a sorry number indeed. Somebody with access to data have a look and see what the MAX and mean for any station was in June 1972. That one was a very chilly month. CET was only 11.8, tied second lowest on record.

    'Twas the coldest June on record back to 1967 using the IMT.
    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Top 5 coldest Junes on record for Ireland (records back to 1967) using the IMT.

    1. 1972; 11.1c
    2. 1991; 12.0c
    3. 1985; 12.1c
    4. 2011; 12.2c
    5. 1977; 12.2c

    2019 is running at a dismal 11.3c up to June 8th.

    As a comparison for interest, these are the top 5 warmest:

    1. 2018; 16.0c
    2. 1970; 15.4c
    3. 1976; 15.2c
    4. 2010; 15.0c
    5. 1992; 14.9c

    Data from Met Éireann.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    In June 2011 it was 22 and 24c at the start of June in Claremorris but never got over 19c after that


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    A selection of Irish stations' absolute monthly max for June 1972. In order from highest to lowest max.

    IgCLq0X.png

    Data from Met Éireann.


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