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08-10-2018, 15:12   #181
Loughc
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Love this time of year. And so it begins ❄️
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10-10-2018, 19:48   #182
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According to Nick L, this month's ECM seasonal update shows an easterly December, an anticyclonic January whilst a positive NAO February. Would be decent if it were to verify I have to say.
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10-10-2018, 20:06   #183
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According to Nick L, this month's ECM seasonal update shows an easterly December, an anticyclonic January whilst a positive NAO February. Would be decent if it were to verify I have to say.
3 more days until we can see them, hopefully December looks as juicy as it sounds. These are his current thoughts for winter

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Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not..

Last edited by Artane2002; 10-10-2018 at 20:09.
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10-10-2018, 20:41   #184
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How accurate was the ECM seasonal last year in comparison to the CFS?
If that is the Nick L, i think it is, he is one of the better contributers on netweather, he is not prone to hyperbole, or letting personal preference get in the way- which often leads to a lot of hopecasting rather than forecasting over on netweather.

Last edited by nacho libre; 10-10-2018 at 23:16.
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10-10-2018, 20:45   #185
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How accurate was the ECM seasonal last year in comparison to the CFS?
If that is the Nick L, i think it is is, he is one of the better contributers on netweather, he is not porone to hyperbole, or letting personal reference get in the way- which often leads to a lot of hopecasting rather than forecasting over on netweather.
In its November update, it was near perfect for a long range forecast.
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10-10-2018, 20:57   #186
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In its November update, it was near perfect for a long range forecast.
Good stuff. By the way was the QBO in 2010 similar to what it is now- esaterly but projected to go westerly during winter. Also isn't there a lag effect to consider before it transitions from one state to the other?

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11-10-2018, 18:28   #187
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From my own interpretations of the ECM tri-monthly MSLP anomalies:

October update of the ECM seasonal model for Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb show a lot of easterly potential but the high is slightly anchored over towards eastern Europe than directly over Scandinavia, this could be quite problematic and easterly winds just missing the UK and Ireland.



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11-10-2018, 19:29   #188
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Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.
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11-10-2018, 21:09   #189
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Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.
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11-10-2018, 21:12   #190
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Username kinda checks out.
Ah now, two of these on the one page! *Importing new sence of humour*
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11-10-2018, 21:12   #191
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Ah now, two of these on the one page! *Importing new sence of humour*
*sense
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11-10-2018, 21:29   #192
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Umm potential battleground scenarios there. Fingers crossed.
I normally don't like battle ground scenarios , due to the fact we are always looking across the sea at Brittan wining the battle,and us looking out the window at pouring rain
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12-10-2018, 00:25   #193
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I normally don't like battle ground scenarios , due to the fact we are always looking across the sea at Brittan wining the battle,and us looking out the window at pouring rain

Did we not have a famous win in 1982?
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12-10-2018, 16:54   #194
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ECM seasonal model monthly charts are out publicly now, they're exactly what others have been saying, very easterly December, anticyclonic January whilst westerly/unsettled February. November also looks like there's some easterly or northerly potential. Looks a lot like Winter 1996-97 to me.

November:



December:



January:



February:

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12-10-2018, 17:52   #195
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I'd prefer the January set up, as the Scandinavian high anomaly is better positioned for us to ward off high attacking westerlies. ie better chance of slider lows.
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