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03-10-2018, 18:50   #121
sdanseo
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ECM seems to show a very deep depression in around 10 days from what you'd imagine are the remnants of Leslie. 948mb between us and Iceland which is no joke if it moved east.

But it's more than a week away. Might as well hang a fish out your window and use it to predict snow in January.
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03-10-2018, 23:28   #122
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A wide spread on the ECMWF spaghetti plot for Leslie , it had shown the remnants merge with other weather systems off the W coast of Ireland by next weekend but dropped it again , instead keeping it in the Sub Tropics. GFS has shown for a few runs now the weakened and filling remnants of Leslie off the W coast by around next fri. ???










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05-10-2018, 15:11   #123
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Leslie steadfastly refusing to do the normal thing and move N/NE and eventually get picked up by the mid-latitude Westerlies. Latest NHC advisories moves it N for a while but then turning SE maintaining tropical characteristics out to next Wednesday at least. First NHC discussion on this system was on Sunday 23 Sept, so it's hanging around a bit.
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08-10-2018, 14:29   #124
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Leslie due to become a hurricane in the middle of the week. Current GFS modelling has it zipping past the West coast of Ireland over the weekend while the ECM heads it toward Spain and dissipating.
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08-10-2018, 14:37   #125
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Michael due to become a hurricane shortly and threaten the Gulf Coast sometime on Wednesday. SHIPS forecast is 86 kts when about 100 miles from land (round midday Wednesday).
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08-10-2018, 16:47   #126
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Yes, Michael is now a hurricane and expected to become a major Category 3 (possibly higher?) hurricane over the next 48 hours before threatening Florida panhandle.






Definitely need to watch this one.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 08-10-2018 at 16:53.
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08-10-2018, 22:40   #127
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Anyone got updates on that system in the Arabian Sea??
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08-10-2018, 23:36   #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Birdnuts View Post
Anyone got updates on that system in the Arabian Sea??
Cyclonic storm Luban. Forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm over the next day or two. From the RSMC (New Delhi):
Quote:
The cyclonic storm over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Arabian sea moved further West-Northwestwards with a speed of about 11 kmph in last 03 hours and lay centered at 1800 UTC of 08th October 2018 over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Arabian sea, near latitude 12.7°N and longitude 60.5°E, about 840 km East-Southeast of Salalah (Oman), 980 km East-Southeast of Al-Ghaidah (41398-Yemen) and 710 km East of Socotra islands (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move West-Northwestwards towards south Oman & Yemen coasts during next 5 days.
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09-10-2018, 19:36   #129
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I got a proper chuckle from the NHC's latest synopsis of Leslie. Slowly on a mission to turn the Atlantic into an earth version of Jupiter's big red spot.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/091440.shtml?

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I can't rule out that Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.
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09-10-2018, 20:44   #130
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TS Nadine has made what will be a cameo appearance in the eastern Atlantic this evening too. Not set to amount to much and will dissipate in a couple of days.
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11-10-2018, 22:46   #131
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When was the last time the Canaries were hit by a Hurricane/TS?

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11-10-2018, 23:59   #132
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When was the last time the Canaries were hit by a Hurricane/TS?

There's massive uncertainty with the track forecast, the largest forecaster Blake has ever witnessed. It could equally head west instead of east.
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12-10-2018, 00:20   #133
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Was just looking at windy.com and a three models out of four are showing something big for next Tuesday. Have anyone seen that ??
According to windy it will form right after Michael.

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12-10-2018, 23:55   #134
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Hurricane Leslie has been meandering around the mid-Atlantic since 23rd of September but has finally decided to make a dash for it and make landfall about mid-way up the coast of Portugal tomorrow night as a 55-65-kt post-tropical storm.
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22-10-2018, 10:32   #135
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Hurricane Willa is currently a Category 4 and likely to make landfall tomorrow on the West coast of Mexico as a Category 5

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.r.../idUSKCN1MV0XB
Is it just me or has there been a change in how often rapid intensification has been occurring this year?
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