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Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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    #1892
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    *there was a slight uptick in solar activity, we don't want to see this pick up anymore and I really hope this hasn't thrown a spanner in the works.

    That's just the solar cycle being normal, remember the large sunspot number spike in early September? That was very normal with very weak solar cycles if you look at the solar data history.

    We're not far off of solar minimum, could be later this year but most likely 2019 will be the year of solar minimum then all the thoughts will be going towards cold Winters! :)
    nacho libre wrote: »
    I do recall Stuart Rampling blaming this for the infamous easterly that never was in December 2012. Is that really plausible? Can it override all other signals? I mean we are due to see warm air over the eastern usa and parts of Canada which usually correlates with colder outbreaks over the UK and Ireland. Everything seems to favour a cold outbreak, rather than a continuation of the current pattern.

    Large difference with then is the stage in solar activity we're at. That was at a time of dropping off activity in between two peaks of solar maximum, this is nearing solar minimum.

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    #1893
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    That's just the solar cycle being normal, remember the large sunspot number spike in early September? That was very normal with very weak solar cycles if you look at the solar data history.

    We're not far off of solar minimum, could be later this year but most likely 2019 will be the year of solar minimum then all the thoughts will be going towards cold Winters! :)

    Oh I know and very much agree, Just as nacho pointed out it was blamed in 2012 for our failed easterly at very short notice albeit that wasn't close to a solar minimum. Also in Dec 2012 there was more activity than now, Im just saying I hope we don't see a real unexpected spike.

    I agree re next year and beyond, I do think we are on the way towards a maunder style minimum in time, the solar activity forecasts have been continually showing activity as higher than reality over the last decade. That is another discussion altogether though.


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    #1894
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Oh I know and very much agree, Just as nacho pointed out it was blamed in 2012 for our failed easterly at very short notice albeit that wasn't close to a solar minimum. Also in Dec 2012 there was more activity than now, Im just saying I hope we don't see a real unexpected spike.

    I agree re next year and beyond, I do think we are on the way towards a maunder style minimum in time, the solar activity forecasts have been continually showing activity as higher than reality over the last decade. That is another discussion altogether though.

    Wasn't that just Piers Corbyn's excuse? I seem to recall him harping on about sun sausages or something as his excuse for a failed forecast


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    #1895
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I’m losing interest in the run to run over analysis
    No forecaster approaches weather looking for a particular outcome and my mindset despite being excited about what I think might happen works more like a forecaster than a particular outcome searcher
    Obviously it will be disappointing if exciting outcomes don’t realize

    I’m also expecting (as we all are) reams of faux output in the FI part of the models during this waiting phase and frankly have no interest in wafting through that waste of bytes
    So count me out of these conversations for about a week at least


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    #1896
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Wasn't that just Piers Corbyn's excuse? I seem to recall him harping on about sun sausages or something as his excuse for a failed forecast

    No. It was not just him. As I mentioned earlier, Stuart Rampling, the former chief forecaster on netweather, at the time cited an uptick in solar acitivty as to the reason why an easterly he championed did not come to pass. Regarding the latest solar acitivity i know we are coming close to a minimum, but a sudden rise or uptick in activity could skewer things- if it was a decisive factor back in 2012 then it could be again.


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    #1897
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    1ai1XMR.png

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    #1898
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Stratosphere charts updated to the 13th February.

    Small spike down at 10hPa.

    fnrRsOt.gif

    Nearly going off the scale at 30hPa.

    VpXN9aK.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #1899
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/963730520059334656

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    #1900
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/963730520059334656

    Very sensational tweet


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    #1901
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Very sensational tweet

    What's sensational about it? You really don't see it everyday with cold pools going from east to west across the Atlantic than the other way round and the zonal winds being reversed.

    All it shows is that this situation is highly unusual and a cold spell is around the corner.

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    #1902
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    What's sensational about it? You really don't see it everyday with cold pools going from east to west across the Atlantic than the other way round and the zonal winds being reversed.

    All it shows is that this situation is highly unusual and a cold spell is around the corner.

    He tweets like as if it’s definitely going to happen.


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    #1903
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    He tweets like as if it’s definitely going to happen.

    And it is.

    I've been saying this for days now.

    I never said snowmaggedon or extreme cold either though.

    Like a cold spell (in my definition) could easily be just high pressure with severe frosts like the second half of January 2011.

    Judah is not a sensationalist, he's a climatologist.

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    #1904
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Meanwhile, it seems the 18th is still up for grabs for the high pressure ascending from the south. Posting here because it's out of FI now.

    y65sNW5.png

    FtqhzAc.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #1905
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    This chart is of the daily sunspot counts since August 17th last year, courtesy of Solar Weather and SILSO for the data. As has been mentioned by some posters here, the sunspot count has risen in the past week with solar activity reaching its highest level since early Autumn 2017 with this coming after a long run of spotless days from around January 21st to February 7th or so with just one little spike up around February 3rd. The fact that we're even getting these runs of spotless days - you don't have to go back far to find other runs of spotless days (look at early November for instance) - shows you how close we are to solar minimum come late 2018 or 2019. Notice the very large spike in early September 2017 I had mentioned which is very normal with very weak solar cycles such as Solar Cycles 12 (1878 to 1890), 16 (1923 to 1933), 5 (1798 to 1910) or 6 (1810 to 1823).

    What has this got to do with our weather? Low solar activity Winters or Winters around/after solar minimum tend to be the coldest Winters. Examples include 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 1995-96, 1996-97, 1984-85, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1964-65, 1901-02, 1946-47, 1954-55, 1878-79.... the list goes on and on. Why is this so? Low solar activity (from a historical perspective) helps to form northern blocking over the Arctic Circle. According to a research project by Ida Johansson at Lund University in Sweden:
    The blocking persistence over the Atlantic is on average three days longer in low solar activity years than during high solar activity years, while short-lived blockings are more frequent during high solar activity years. Also the spatial blocking patterns between high solar activity and low solar activity winters differ. During high solar activity blockings have a more westward location than during low solar activity years. Atlantic blockings during high solar activity and low solar activity years have a different impact on the climate. Blockings during low solar activity years result in cold European winters, while blockings during high solar activity years do not affect European winters as much because of the more westward location of the blocking centre.
    In the Atlantic area blockings usually occur in the area of southern Greenland leading to that wind flow anomalies in this area which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. From around 1960 to 1990 when the NAO went from a negative to a positive state, the frequency of blockings over Greenland was decreasing. In addition, it has been suggested that the negative NAO phase in the early 1960s was associated with cold winters in Europe due to prolonged blocking events during this time period.
    The possible mechanisms behind blockings are debated. Blockings might be a result of stratospherictropospheric coupling, which could explain the NAO extension into the stratosphere, during high solar activity winters. The question remains whether the different phases of the NAO lead to blockings or blockings lead to variations in the NAO. Different studies have shown contradicting results. Shabbar et al. (2001) proposed that the NAO forces blockings since it largely controls temperatures over ocean and landmasses in the Atlantic area. During a negative NAO temperature are warmer over the ocean and colder over land than during the positive phase. According to Shabbar et al. (2001) negative NAO conditions make it more favourable for persistent blockings to occur. Croci-Maspoli et al. (2007) instead stated that blockings might force variations in the NAO. Opposed to Shabbar et al. (2001) they proposed that persistent blockings could be causing the establishment of a negative NAO and also extend the occurrence of a negative NAO phase. According to Croci-Maspoli et al. (2007) blockings evolved during a positive NAO, dependent on their location, might also help sustain a positive NAO.

    http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=5469871&fileOId=5469890

    I highlighted a sentence there in bold because that's what I'm basically trying to say. We're at around the same phase of the solar cycle as late 2007 or early 2008.

    gP8XVax.jpg

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    #1906
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    UKMO forecast updated, more bullish again.
    UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 28 Feb 2018:
    Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

    UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Thursday 15 Mar 2018:
    In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. In the second week of March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #1907
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    horrible day here, dark, pouring rain, mild 10C. Then again it feels like we haven't seen a day like this here in a long time.


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    #1908
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Bar the rain here this morning it's a beautiful day warm (compared to recently) and sunny day.


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    #1909
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,132 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Lovely bright blustery day in east Galway with just the odd shower
    Could live with this ;)
    Looking at radar a monster shower just went north of us


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    #1910
    Dank Janniels
    Registered Users Posts: 641 ✭✭✭Dank Janniels


    km79 wrote: »
    Lovely bright blustery day in east Galway with just the odd shower
    Could live with this ;)
    Looking at radar a monster shower just went north of us

    flash of lightning around Dunmore, followed by a hail shower.


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    #1911
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,139 ✭✭✭highdef


    Gonzo wrote: »
    horrible day here, dark, pouring rain, mild 10C. Then again it feels like we haven't seen a day like this here in a long time.

    It cleared up very nicely, in fairness


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    #1912
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    highdef wrote: »
    It cleared up very nicely, in fairness

    It did indeed, hard to believe how awful it was earlier given the great afternoon.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #1913
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    When this easterly comes or should I say If it comes I reckon it will be too late and only a nuisance delaying spring


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    #1914
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,445 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Showers should increasingly turn to snow from midnight as it will be turning much colder for a time. Don't be surprised to see a dusting in your area in the west by morning ;)


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    #1915
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    UKMO forecast updated, more bullish again.



    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

    God you don't often see the words significant snowfall in their updates. I told a fib in the other post i will be sickened if we don't get snowy cold at the end of all this. Although I do like cold and dry weather too.


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    #1916
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/963856972926857216

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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    #1917
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    this is a good post on netweather about why the models might not have a proper handle on what's going on at the moment:



    "Why are the operational runs 'out of kilter miss firers' at relatively short range all of a sudden?

    Too many factors

    Firstly MJO would indicate with its phase 14 days ago that high pressure should push to our NorthEast

    SSW should push everything Westwards - so a contrast here between two major drivers.

    A solar wind combined with a CME will hit the Earth tomorrow effecting the Poles,

    So already some major factors which will all effect output

    In addition we have the winds at higher altitude reversing and this is moving lower in the atmosphere, timing can vary, as can the strength. In addition where is everything in the troposphere when winds reverse.

    All that on top of everything else that the computers normally have to deal with.

    The data higher up will be less than at the surface for higher resolution, so these big changes higher up will be less well recorded and due to the SSW being a less common event, the data inputted will be less good. I mean by that, that the data to move forwards is less well known by human computer data to compute it, plus we have less data from previous SSW events for the computers to learn how to deal with it. The best thing for the computers is a positive NAO as it has more data over more time to understand small implications"


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    #1918
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Whatever about the lack of snow, I'm enjoying all the sunshine here in the east. So far this month Casement has recorded over 54 hours of sunshine over 13 days. There have only been 3 days with <2 hours of sunshine, but 4 days with >7 hours. Long may it continue.


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    #1919
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭lolie


    Showers turning sleety here in s cavan.


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    #1920
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Had a big hail shower earlier but now its rain, horrible evening after a terrific day


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    #1921
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    km79 wrote: »
    Lovely bright blustery day in east Galway with just the odd shower
    Could live with this ;)
    Looking at radar a monster shower just went north of us

    I know we have got a lot of rain in Galway but the prolonged cold weather is good for flood prevention. The white capped mountains in the west are holding a lot of water in the form of ice/snow. They will slowly release that water in a gradual thaw. It means the lowland water systems are getting a good chance to drain.

    You can see from the water station on the River Corrib that the water levels are decreasing rapidly in the past 10-14 days. Well below the median flood mark now and over 0.6m away from the record floods of February 2016.

    https://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/


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