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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭lolie


    Use this link to search strikes.
    https://meteologix.com/ie/lightning
    This one is showing north east of sneem but matches your time to the second.
    485685.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    lolie wrote: »
    Use this link to search strikes.
    https://meteologix.com/ie/lightning
    This one is showing north east of sneem but matches your time to the second.
    485685.png

    Sorry I meant NE, yes thats us being hit, thats the mountain we live on. I am surprised that its that accurate.

    Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Lightning near Tullamore now


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Thunder and lightning near Gort


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭lolie


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    Sorry I meant NE, yes thats us being hit, thats the mountain we live on. I am surprised that its that accurate.

    Thanks

    Yeah amazing how accurate it is.
    First time i used that part of the site.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭lolie


    Can hear plenty of distance thunder south of here over westmeath


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Driving back from Newry some serious lightning hope the dashcam picks it up well


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some interest for the possibility of thunderstorms forming along W coasts on Sunday . CAPE levels not huge but a lot of shear available. Some very heavy rain possible in the W.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 0Z and Rapid ECM 06Z showing potential for thunderstorms again tomorrow moving in from the W early morning and becoming widespread in the afternoon, mostly from W to E in the central 1/3 corridor of the country. Warm fronts followed by a trough providing the forcing . Warm moisture laden air mass with huge amounts of low level and deep level shear. CAPE not huge but with that amount of shear and vorticity in the atmosphere might be enough to produce storms. Possibly elevated storms again.

    Will need to see tonight's charts and would like the views of others. Not too sure seeing such low CAPE readings.

    Big rainfall accumulations showing up for the W, N Midlands, NE

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12 continues to show thunderstorms from early ( around 10.00 - 11.00 ) moving inland in the SW, W and later in the NE as the warm fronts sweep up over the country. Showing the storms move from the coasts in over the midlands and peter out towards the E later in the afternoon.

    Euro 4 showing thunderstorms but more a W to NE track and possible along S coasts . ICON having none of it. ARPEGE 12Z not showing much CAPE, AROME 12Z bit better.

    Big Question marks about this one ????

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    No mention on MetEireann's latest update


    ' TOMORROW - SUNDAY 21ST JULY
    On Sunday morning rain will spread across Ulster, Connacht and west Munster. It will extend to remaining areas in the afternoon and continue for the rest of the day. It will be heavy at times with a risk of localised flooding, especially in Connacht and Ulster. Highest temperatures of 18 to 21 degrees with fresh southerly winds, strong on coasts',


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-21

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    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 21 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 22 Jul 2019

    ISSUED 20:12 UTC Sat 20 Jul 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Strong west-southwesterly flow covers the British Isles on Sunday, with a frontal system pushing across Ireland into western Scotland. Extensive cloud seems likely given deep moisture over these areas, with a broad warm sector covering Ireland during Sunday daytime - characterised by surface dewpoints of 15-17C.


    Pulses of largely frontal (dynamic) rain will push northeastwards across Ireland and western Scotland, however there is scope for elevated convection to develop along the Theta-E ridge as a mid-level dry intrusion rides over an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass. EURO4 / UKV / ECMWF have remained consistent in developing elevated thunderstorms late morning over the Atlantic to the west of Connaught / Munster, these then migrating northeastwards across Connaught in particular during the afternoon hours, and towards Ulster.

    Confidence is rather low as to how much lightning activity will occur given rather weak instability and fairly saturated profiles, but the environment will be strongly-sheared and as such a low-end SLGT has been introduced. It is plausible there could be quite a bit of heavy (torrential) rain but a distinct lack of notable lightning activity. It is also possible other sporadic pulses of lightning could occur elsewhere in Ireland outside of the SLGT area, but it is rather difficult to be more specific at this stage - and adjustments may be required to the forecast.

    While most convection will be elevated, should a stronger cell be able to root within the boundary layer then strong LLS, notable SREH and backed surface winds could allow a tornado to occur. In general, most lightning activity should decrease by the evening hours with only isolated strikes expected on Sunday night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal and Longford

    Through Sunday and Sunday night, falls of heavy rain will give high rainfall totals with reduced visibility and a risk of localised flooding.

    Valid: Sunday 21 July 2019 06:00 to Monday 22 July 2019 06:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Some thundery bursts off the Mayo coast currently


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    A few sferics showing way off the west coast


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Thunder in Castlebar currently.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,731 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    Couple of sferics off the Dingle Peninsula.

    67096435_10216386537468287_560464387127640064_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_oc=AQlMoKawll0a2tMOT_1HJj-cYbNs8BCroVt9GtcCu4cNfEckYalPlbL-HCHVl-jKSrs&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=69e6a9e807ab01048fa6ff110951f5ae&oe=5DAE6647


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Lightning and thunder near Carraroe Co Galway


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Got very dark here near Tralee about 12.00, heavy rain followed and a bit of short lived thunder .

    https://twitter.com/Meteorite58/status/1152925587209621504

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Big flash of lightning and deep booming thunder in Letterkenny with torrential rain.

    First flash of lightning I've seen in more than 2 years!

    Chance this could affect The Open?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,716 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Big flash of lightning and deep booming thunder in Letterkenny with torrential rain.

    First flash of lightning I've seen in more than 2 years!

    Chance this could affect The Open?

    Very high.

    Tee times were already brought forward a few hours but lightning in the area will disrupt it a lot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Big flash of lightning and deep booming thunder in Letterkenny with torrential rain.

    First flash of lightning I've seen in more than 2 years!

    Chance this could affect The Open?
    Congrats! :cool:

    Very surprised though that such standard looking synopics would bring thunder? I.E, approaching warm-front and long-wave SW pattern. No thunder here but getting increasingly frequent, if very short-lived, torrential bursts of rain and feeling as humid as hell.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Congrats! :cool:

    Very surprised though that such standard looking synopics would bring thunder? I.E, approaching warm-front and long-wave SW pattern. No thunder here but getting increasingly frequent, if very short-lived, torrential bursts of rain and feeling as humid as hell.

    I recall saying to you a couple of years ago that I got bored of thunderstorms after experiencing them nearly every day in Asia but can safely say that's no longer the case :D

    A solitary flash is all we got in the end though, radar showed two strikes nearby but only saw/heard one


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Really worth keeping an eye I reckon on the potential for overnight thunderstorms maybe late Tues night into early Weds morning skirting up along the SE , E and NE of Ireland. Could be quite explosive running up the Irish sea, how close or if overland in Ireland will need to see over the coming days. The SW might feature also.

    Big negative tilted trough, really high Theta -E readings, Jet overhead with tons of shear, coupeld with possible temps 17 to 19C at 01.00 Weds morning and DP around 16 - 17C.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Been keeping an eye on that all week, proper plume stuff if it comes off. I remember a similar setup maybe 6 or 7 years ago where Wexford narrowly missed out on a big storm that went up the Irish Sea then all hell broke loose in the UK with supercells across the Midlands


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Rain to continue over the W, NE, N Midlands and N for some hours to come, some heavy convective rain embedded in the system. Chance of thunderstorms diminishing but maybe a few sporadic strikes over elevated ground in the W.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Chance of thunderstorms diminishing but maybe a few sporadic strikes over elevated ground in the W.

    Does that include the SW ? Getting paranoid up here, if theres a risk I want to shut everything down....


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Talk of 'very big thunderstorms' moving up from Europe tuesday night and wenesday on bbc news 24 forecast just now


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