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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    This year, bake your own bread!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    This year, bake your own bread!

    Finally people who bought the LIDL bread makers can finally use them :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Did somebody order a Beast from the East?

    :D

    EZOaqh1.png


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    I ordered 2 please. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Did somebody order a Beast from the East?

    :D

    EZOaqh1.png

    That's a bit far out. There can't be any reliability in that, can there? I didn't think charts would be even produced that far out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Mobhi1 wrote: »
    That's a bit far out. There can't be any reliability in that, can there? I didn't think charts would be even produced that far out.

    When I post charts like this, it's for the fun of weather enthusiasts, nothing serious. I thought I'd stop saying "just for fun" because I assume everybody knows that by now and getting annoyed of me constantly saying it.

    The CFS is a ridiculous model and goes as far out as Summer 2019 right now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Mobhi1 wrote: »
    That's a bit far out. There can't be any reliability in that, can there? I didn't think charts would be even produced that far out.

    None whatsoever, you'd be as well off ask farm animals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    This year, bake your own bread!
    Yeast from the east?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,372 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    None whatsoever, you'd be as well off ask farm animals.

    When would we expect to have some credible predictions for this?

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    When would we expect to have some credible predictions for this?


    Around the 20th of January 2019


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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    I remember this post from last winter:" Have you ever looked out the window at snow and suddenly got a craving for bread"
    There is always an sound explanation for hysteria. This poster has wisdom!

    As regards this winter, the Liffey will freeze and robins will be knocking at the door to come inside.

    and the cats will be licking their lips... ;)

    Maybe the ocean will freeze and we can skate across....


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    highdef wrote: »
    Thankfully, with you being located on an island in the Atlantic Ocean, your chances of being cut off due to snow have diminished vastly since you moved from your upland location on the mainland. You may be one of the last to report disruptive snow. Fingers crossed this is the case at your extremely isolated location.

    We had snow here this year.. I have photos on my phone... The ferry would be fine but the roads at each end.. :eek:

    so we stay home... snug

    Shortly will be getting a whole load of island turf ... Love snow when there has been good preparation for it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Loughc wrote: »
    Finally people who bought the LIDL bread makers can finally use them :pac:

    OK so what if the power goes!


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Out of interest, what's the actual point of the CFS if it's totally inaccurate? I mean, doing 50/50 FI runs out to 10 or 15 days is one thing, but surely they wouldn't dedicate valuable supercomputer processing time to running such a long and I'm assuming CPU-intensive model unless there was at least some tangible benefit to doing so?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    We have come to the time of the year where I am torn when looking at the threads in the Weather forum. I am not sure whether to open the latest post in the Winter thread or the Summer thread. I love an Indian summer but I also love love love extreme cold and snow.

    It's still August and I am already opening the Winter thread first!

    ...da Beast is coming :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Out of interest, what's the actual point of the CFS if it's totally inaccurate? I mean, doing 50/50 FI runs out to 10 or 15 days is one thing, but surely they wouldn't dedicate valuable supercomputer processing time to running such a long and I'm assuming CPU-intensive model unless there was at least some tangible benefit to doing so?

    Don't have an answer for you unfortunately (I wish I knew myself) but this might interest you: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/csd/pds/PCU3/CFS/purpose.htm


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Yeast from the east?

    That sounds like a nasty infection!


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    That sounds like a nasty infection!

    Or a nice homebrew beer kit ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Don't have an answer for you unfortunately (I wish I knew myself) but this might interest you: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/csd/pds/PCU3/CFS/purpose.htm

    Thanks! I'll have a full read of this later on but from skimming the intro it looks like the model is designed to chart the slow-moving climate 'oscillations' such as ENSO, NAO, AMO and so on - and that the surface pressure charts produces as a result are essentially a quirky by-product of doing those calculations. Makes sense since those climate cycles change and develop incredibly slowly, so if we have El Nino conditions today for instance, we're almost certainly still going to have them tomorrow, albeit marginally cooler or warmer. In that context, it's possible that it's useful for spotting general trends, even if it's totally useless for day-to-day surface weather.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Graces7 wrote: »
    OK so what if the power goes!

    Then we will need to make some difficult decisions :(


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭JJJJNR


    I think as big data and specifically machine learning becomes more prevalent in weather patterns it will become more accurate.

    https://uni.no/en/news/2018/1/31/project-climate-models-and-big-data-gets-toppforsk


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Loughc wrote: »
    Then we will need to make some difficult decisions :(

    The youngest born?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    The youngest born?

    Exactly!


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Loughc wrote: »
    Then we will need to make some difficult decisions :(

    bannocks are good, and easy.. well as long as you cook by gas ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Reading that the charts are changing their mind about a settled September. Just a question for the knowledgeable ones, a settled september, would that be good or bad for a cold winter? I'd say its already been answered a lot, sorry if it has, just couldn't find it :)

    Answering this here as it's the appropriate thread for it SleetAndSnow. If you go by history, the best chances for a cold Winter is an unsettled September but there have been settled Septembers followed by cold Winters. You don't have to go back far to find an example of such - 2009.

    For the sake of this, I'm gonna use the England & Wales Precipitation (EWP) and Central England Temperature (CET) datasets because they have data going back to the period I want to look back to. Let's look at the EWP for the Septembers that preceded notably cold Winters or Winters that stand out to people (back to 1870) and the CETs for those Winters. Remember that the 1981-2010 EWP average for September is 77.2mm whilst the 1981-2010 CET average for Winter (December to February) is 4.5c.

    In our sample space here, I have chosen 49 different years and out of 49, 27 of those years contained a wet September (for the EWP anyway, there would be some wetter and drier Septembers elsewhere like in Ireland or Scotland for example where 1985 was wet compared to the EWP series) which is just over half of the number of the years in the sample space so there's not really much correlation with an unsettled or settled September for the EWP and a cold Winter though it is interesting, three of the most severe since 1940, 1946-47, 1962-63 and 1981-82 were preceded by wet Septembers.

    I looked at unsettled Septembers for last year's Winter and I found there is an increased chance of a colder Winter for 2017/18 because of this. We had a colder Winter indeed so that turned out rather well.

    MtRKpx5.png

    Data comes from the UK Met Office.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Brilliant, thanks sryan


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    looking into SSW I came accross the following:
    Major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occur in the Arctic stratosphere at a frequency of about six events per decade and involve a reversal of the stratospheric vortex, accompanied by a steep rise of the polar cap temperature (Craig et al. 1959; Limpasuvan et al. 2004).


    From:
    https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Kang-Tziperman-2017.pdf

    And I was wondering how many SSW events have we had this decade? And where to find that info?


  • Registered Users Posts: 859 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Out of interest, what's the actual point of the CFS if it's totally inaccurate? I mean, doing 50/50 FI runs out to 10 or 15 days is one thing, but surely they wouldn't dedicate valuable supercomputer processing time to running such a long and I'm assuming CPU-intensive model unless there was at least some tangible benefit to doing so?
    Is that not how machine learning 'learns' - you apply the model and see how accurate or not the result was - you have to know how bad it is before you can fix it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Out of interest, what's the actual point of the CFS if it's totally inaccurate? I mean, doing 50/50 FI runs out to 10 or 15 days is one thing, but surely they wouldn't dedicate valuable supercomputer processing time to running such a long and I'm assuming CPU-intensive model unless there was at least some tangible benefit to doing so?
    Five days (and often a lot less!) seems to be the limit for accurate forecasting, a couple of days ago an Indian summer was odds on now it looks like many will be putting on their heating for the first time this week! How often do we hear forecasters say "uncertain? - all the time.
    Around thirty years ago accurate forecasting was about three days so we haven't come very far despite the huge technology advances.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Once again the CFS models paint a clear picture for the stratosphere & continue to be very very interesting for the period November & December with a very subdued vortex & A late November Warming event...

    Not many November/December Warming years to choose from In the archives ( 1962 springs to mind )

    Edited 1 hour ago by Steve Murr


    From net weather strat thread. Now if that were to happen could be a very festive Xmas this year.


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