Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

Checked in on the portfolio there to survey the damage. Back in the green overall.

freyners wrote: »

I'll throw a good word in here for the popular investor. Irish guy behind it (robert reynolds). Been in his service since December and been very happy

Thanks for the tip. I'll check him out. TBH, some of the others are quite pricey and I gotta think of them as taking a % of any gains. I'm just doing my research with what data I have now and it makes sense in 6 months... a years time I'll give one a go. Sticking to what I know is fine, but it means putting all my eggs in one basket, and I just don't have the time to go figuring out which stocks in other markets have the best long term potential. There's great knowledge here on these boards too.

That was a crazy day, didn't off load the IAG with the drop but picked up the RDSB. Then the US opened, what a wild ride, not a tap was done at work the tail end of the day.

I worry this is a bull trap people so be careful everybody

1percent wrote: »

That was a crazy day, didn't off load the IAG with the drop but picked up the RDSB. Then the US opened, what a wild ride, not a tap was done at work the tail end of the day.

I worry this is a bull trap people so be careful everybody

You probably picked up the RDSB shares I sold, best of luck with it, I think oil has very little left to run, shell are trying to move away from oil but that's going to be a long painful transition. The Saudis could anyday decide to ramp up production and these oil plays with drop like a stone, even Tullow oil is back at yearly highs. My thoughts anyway

Started the year almost 25% in cash but that's down to 8% now with all the recent buying. Have a quarter of the remainder lodged in my account and ready to go next week if there are further drops. Topped up more ARKK and ARKG yesterday.

Do ppl think the bump ok Fri afternoon will hold and we go up and up from here ala March '20? Listened to Jim Cramer yday and he talked of 2015/16 and the 5 human emotions of a crash. Market dropped Jul 2015 and recovered by Oct. Then tanked again before recovering by Q2 16 and roaring since. So basically the uptick on Fri afternoon could be temporary and we could fall further from here - a bull to trap as stated above.

My first time trading in a correction period so interested to get ppls takes and how it influences strategy.

Seems like most sensible play is just to keep averaging in on stocks I'm long on bringing down my BEP. Maybe buy into some commodities and maybe real estate based stock like LGIH.

Kilough wrote: »

Do ppl think the bump ok Fri afternoon will hold and we go up and up from here ala March '20? Listened to Jim Cramer yday and he talked of 2015/16 and the 5 human emotions of a crash. Market dropped Jul 2015 and recovered by Oct. Then tanked again before recovering by Q2 16 and roaring since. So basically the uptick on Fri afternoon could be temporary and we could fall further from here - a bull to trap as stated above.

My first time trading in a correction period so interested to get ppls takes and how it influences strategy.

Seems like most sensible play is just to keep averaging in on stocks I'm long on bringing down my BEP. Maybe buy into some commodities and maybe real estate based stock like LGIH.

Bull trap imo.

There was a boost on the Jobs Report yesterday but this correction began with rising interest rates and there is no indication of that changing. The Federal Reserve have said they are unconcerned about rising rates.

I learnt my lesson in the sell-off of December 2019 which was driven by quantitative tightening and reversed by the abandonment of that policy.

QE has warped the relationship between normal business cycles and the stock market.

growleaves wrote: »

The Federal Reserve have said they are unconcerned about rising rates.

That is patently not what Powell said in the last two weeks. He said they were unconcerned with the rise of inflation up to 2%, but that would only happen at near full employment in the future and that the federal reserve had a number of fiduciary tools and safeguards at their disposal to ensure it didn't rise above that.

Now, tbf, the market and 10y bond stuff have decided to consistently go mad at anything other than a firm statement from Powell - which he explained on Friday that, as an apolitical organisation, he would not and could not give. That said, he did make a very strong statement about his own negative experiences as a young adult emerging into the job market during a time of inflation.

QE is certainly correlated strongly, and 1.9t is not to be sniffed at, but the market is acting catatonically after the bull run of a year it has had due to any signal that the party is over. They could be trying to force the hand here, but its unlikely to happen.

growleaves wrote: »

Okay well apologies for not being precise and the quoting it exactly but I see no contradiction...I'll write things out more carefully next time.

You're trying to make me out to be pedantic, but it makes an absolutely massive difference to how this plays out. If the Federal Reserve said they were unconcerned with interest rates at this juncture they'd cause a full on market crash. You'd have seen the 10y yield skyrocket on Friday and it would likely have tanked the dollar prior to the stimulus package. This has played out before when Miller was chairman leading to inflation running at 14%.

With Jerome saying that interest rates were obviously of huge concern, and they had the tools to deal with it, it still spiked the 10 year above 1.5%. There's an element of trying to force the hand of the Federal Reserve evident at this stage, as Barron's pointed out:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/will-fed-shift-focus-to-inflation-not-with-stocks-still-near-peaks-51614972421

The important bit there being

Barrons wrote:

Interest costs one percentage point above the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline estimate would add $9.7 trillion—more than 10 times the annual U.S. defense budget—to the deficit from 2021 to 2030. Such worrisome possibilities, the strategists conclude, make some form of yield curve control inevitable.

Since you bring up the Macro Trend question, and the 'immediate short-term' the worst-case scenario answer is that the market misbehaves for another two or so weeks until March 17 when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes, in an attempt to force the hand of the Federal Reserve in relation to yield curve control. Personally I doubt it will come to that, but its possible. I'd agree with you that Monday will most likely represent a bull trap.

Question: let's say I bought 1 amazon share at 3500 a few months back, could I not just buy an amazon share now for 3,000 and then sell the the other one? (Isn't it first in first out for cgt purposes?) Obviously, at that point you couldn't buy another amazon shares for another 28 days, but you'd be able to write that 500 loss off for CGT purposes.

What am I forgetting in the above example?

inisfree0504 wrote: »

“The FIFO rules are modified in any case where shares of the same class are bought and sold within a period of four weeks. Where shares are sold within four weeks of acquisition the shares sold are identified with the shares acquired within that period.” - Revenue

You would need to wait a month after buying the second share, before the normal FIFO rule would apply and the share sold would be identified with the one bought at 3500.

Some helpful worked examples from revenue here:
https://www.revenue.ie/en/tax-professionals/tdm/income-tax-capital-gains-tax-corporation-tax/part-19/19-04-06a.pdf

One More Toy wrote: »

Where's the best place to get US futures data?

Many thanks
Omt

If it’s futures for the overall indexes like SP500, Nasdaq etc then yahoo finance and CNBC both have futures but with a 15 minute delay. If you’re on Degiro, it has futures for the indexes in real time. For individual shares, again yahoo and CNBC will have this with a slight delay. The NASDAQ’s own website has real time, if it’s a Nasdaq listing, ie https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cslt/pre-market

is the S&P500 still off limits for us? or has there been a work arounf?

Shedite27 wrote: »

Nasdaq Futures continuing last week's trend

LSE flying for me...may bank some for shopping later on.

I expect a green Monday, just like last week. Wonder if it'll close strong this time though.

Cpfm wrote: »

SMT down 4% again.. doesn't bode well...:(

It's back to pretty much early September 2020 prices at the moment.