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Northern Hemisphere Ice and Snow Advance 2019/20

24

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    silverharp wrote: »
    What is the significance of an average to 2010? Why not just have the average to last year?

    I'd imagine it is because they started tracking it by Satellite in 1979 so the 1981-2010 is a climate period. This data can then be checked against land based observations that use the 1981-2010 climate period.
    Every year "XXX1" plus 29 years makes for a climate period. From 1 January 2021 the climate data for 1991 to 2020 will be another period that comes out as a benchmark.
    The 1961-1990 is a widely used benchmark to this day, even though we have 1971-2000 and 1981-2010.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Impressive ice formation in to the arctic sea. This should continue for some weeks yet.

    It is indeed, the rapid ice formation over the past two weeks or thereabouts has caught interest from many who are surprised by the rapid gains owing to the warmer than average air and sea surface temperatures there.

    The levels are bouncing back towards the 2010s averages and within a couple of weeks could peek above that level if current refreeze trends continue.

    Interestingly, the 80N temperatures show a persistent drop in temperatures, albeit slightly above the 1958-2002 norms, and a lack of mild air incursions which was the case in 2016 - see below:

    2019:
    meanT_2019.png


    2016:
    meanT_2016.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    30 year climate period averages for Ireland:

    xAr22IZ.png


    Data from The University of East Anglia (UEA)

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 776 ✭✭✭Kingswood Rover


    interesting to see the 01-20 average i am guessing 9.8???? or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    30 year climate period averages for Ireland:

    xAr22IZ.png


    Data from The University of East Anglia (UEA)

    Interesting. What stations were used to collate this data?

    Over the 100 year period our average temperature was 9.25c


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    30 year climate period averages for Ireland:



    Data from The University of East Anglia (UEA)

    I've overlaid your data on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation data to highlight how much of a primary influence this natural mode is on European (and US) temperatures. I reckon if we had the precipitation data we'd see a similar pattern.

    49015265168_5ac33ee905_b.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Climate period averages for Northern Ireland from the UK Met. Data only from 1910 available. Similar trends, though more variance between each period

    GpVyZzN.png


    Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/Northern_Ireland.txt


    Danno & Gaoth. Info about that data from link below. Not sure what, if any, Irish stations are used to help calculate this data, but would imagine that long-term datasets from the likes of Armagh, Phoenix Pk and Valentia played a big role.

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data

    In which you can download both temperature and rainfall data for a specific region from this portal:

    https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data.

    Useful data resource, but I think they underplay both warm and cold monthly extremes, which has always been the nature of data based primarily on model reanalysis.

    .

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Here are the Ireland figures from that link, Oneiric.

    494604.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Ice formation has begun in Hudson Bay.

    cursnow_usa.gif

    Easy to see why. Sea Ice will advance rapidly here in the coming days with very cold incursions in to North America...

    gfsnh-1-6.png?18

    gfsna-9-6.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir




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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Ariyah Crooked Banker


    Heaven.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Daily sea ice concentration for October 2019 from NISDC/NASS. Orange line represents the 1981-2010 median extent.
    (Large gif file so may take a short while to load)

    Overall, the month of October saw Arctic ice gain close to average. More here.

    Figure2b-1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    This November's Arctic ice extent up to yesterday (circled in blue). Looks like it will finish in and around the longer term trend.

    kftF4jn.png

    (DMI)

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    November's daily sea ice extent and thickness animation from the Danish Met Office: (large file; may take many minutes to load)

    YlAdiy4.gif

    Doing OK on the Atlantic side, but struggling on the Pacific edge.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Far too much purple.

    Thatl be gone v quick in Summer if it doesnt thicken up.

    Pacific needs a real freeze up doesnt it


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,019 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    pauldry wrote: »
    Far too much purple.

    Thatl be gone v quick in Summer if it doesnt thicken up.

    Pacific needs a real freeze up doesnt it

    Deep solar minimum and we are tracking at the third lowest extent this week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    pauldry wrote: »
    Far too much purple.

    Thatl be gone v quick in Summer if it doesnt thicken up.

    That, in itself, would be nothing out of the standard norm in fairness.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    According to the JAXA monitoring service: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent the 2019 Arctic Sea Ice Extent has pushed above the 2010s average for the first time since March 14th this year. This puts current extent at the fifth lowest in the satellite recording series that began in 1978.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Are there thickness comparisons from the other low SIE?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Sea Ice down the west coast of Greenland between Newfoundland looking very healthy at the moment and only getting better over the next couple of weeks as serious cold continues to be ejected here from the polar latitudes.

    ims2020007_usa.gif

    ims2020007.gif

    anim_nnv8.gif

    There will be a significant advance here beyond the norm.

    One of the perks of the polar vortex being so strong is it locks the cold air in the higher latitudes, mostly it can't escape - it just spins and spins and does wonders for sea ice formation.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Northern hemisphere temp anomaly for the first 10 days of January from 1979 up to the present year.

    Rue2Gvx.png

    (Climate Reanalyser)

    So far, the mean temperature over the NH for this opening period of the year is running the 2nd highest on record, and only a few nths behind that of 2016, which remains the highest in this particular series. Although still running well above average, Arctic temperatures are running at their lowest since 2014 for the same period.

    Edit, black line is the 10 year running mean.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Interesting that very cold air has been locked in the Arctic resulting in Greenland lowest ever temperature, you'd think that at some stage in the next few months the Jet will buckle and allow this frigid air sink south into the mid-latitudes. I'm going for one very cold spell in mid-february


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The cold air is staying locked in the Arctic this year, while this may be responsible for a mild winter across Europe, it certainly bodes well for the Sea Ice extent there.

    As of yesterday, the arctic sea ice extent is at 13,382,493 km2 - making it the 13th lowest in the Satellite series which began in 1979.

    It bucks the trend of the last seven years which have seen consistently dropping extent values for this date.

    Also of note is the high position of 2005 and 2006 (6th and 2nd) for this date.

    Ice extent growth has been quite high for several weeks now and if this continues it is possible that this year's winter maximum will come in closer to values recorded in the 2000-2009 period as opposed to the 2010-2019 period.

    Interesting times.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    And of course not reported in the media :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Arctic Sea Ice continuing to perform well. Yesterday's extent was 13,491,629 km2 which is closing in on the all time low maximum of ~13,880,000 km2.

    Interestingly, yesterdays extent beats every year of the last decade (2010-2019) for January 24th and also beats 2005 and 2006 by 122,436 km2 and 513,319 km2 respectively.

    This maintains 2020 as the 13th lowest on record.

    The 2020 season is 174,746 km2 and 180,763 km2 behind 2007 and 2009 respectively so if this season continues to perform well it might edge ahead of these years in the coming week or two.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Arctic sea ice extent continues it's impressive season (impressive against the backdrop of recent years) with the figures rapidly growing again following a pause for a few days.

    Extent is now 14th lowest on record as of yesterday's figures at 13,939,559 km2.

    This figure means that it has now surpassed the maximum extent figures for 2017 and 2018 - meaning that if melting began tomorrow, 2020 would be the third lowest maximum on record.

    However, given the performance of this season thus far and on average 33 days left of ice gains to be had, it is highly unlikely that 2020 will feature in the top five of lowest maximums on record (since 1979 when satellite records began).

    Another metric is Sea Ice Area that is used to measure the performance of arctic sea ice. As of Wednesday, this area was ranked 12th in the satellite record and continues to perform well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    This has been a quite extraordinary Winter for Arctic Sea Ice. If 33 days are left it could be over 14.5 million by max. But for some reason I fear Summer will take it all back...or maybe not


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Im Layman’s terms, has it been good or bad news for the Arctic this winter?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Both!

    Good if you want to regain even the tinest bit of the overall melt over the previous years.
    Bad if you're Russian and are begging for the artic to melt so you can open shipping lanes.


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