Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sligo may be a bit far west but, again, just keep up to date with the observations. It's not a forecast anymore. Storms could pop up randomly in a lot of places away from west Connaught and Munster coasts later today.


EDIT: Sligo is not too far west. What am I thinking!

Thanks Kermit
I'm in Donegal by the way

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Looking through the models this morning and bearing in mind the trends of the last few runs I am thinking storms breaking out in the SE late afternoon / early evening ( maybe a bit of S also), migrating N to cover the E, Midlands, mid W, N and NW. The big population areas of the E has a fairly high chance of thunderstorms by late evening. Thinking that along or off the SE and E coasts could see plenty of storms. The Northern counties could see storms well into the early hours and could peak here.

No storms for Mayo so,

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They only need convincing until it happens :cool:

I know I know. Apologies for my grouchy behaviour. Keep the faith!

But will there be purple level thunderstorms?

owen3371 wrote: »

Starting already on the north coast, thunderstorm between Coleraine and Islay I observed a few c-gs and loud rumbles ,the sky is full of altocumulus I've never seen anything like it in 30 years.

OWEN!!!

UPDATED

NI/ROI

few elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible over Ulster during Thursday morning, clearing northwards. Elsewhere, a northward-moving shortwave may result in some elevated convection developing in the vicinity of the Isles of Scilly / Celtic Sea on Thursday morning, which may bring both an increase in mid-level cloud and perhaps a few elevated showers/thunderstorms into SE Ireland by early afternoon, continuing to lift north with time. Even if this elevated convection is not deep enough to produce lightning, the additional cloud cover spilling north may have some negative impact on surface heating. Assuming the cloud is not too extensive and/or fairly broken, diurnal heating could yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon and evening hours. Profiles look capped to surface-based convection initially, but mid-level cooling and lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave could lead to scattered thunderstorms erupting during the evening hours (if not earlier), especially in the vicinity of the Central Plain.

Similar to western Scotland (albeit profiles slightly more V-B-V), for a few hours the environment would be favourable for cell organisation and possibly supercells capable of producing large hail 3-4cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong outflow gusts. A SVR has been issued primarily for the risk of locally damaging hail and flash flooding. This will be dependent on sufficient surface heating, otherwise surface-based convection may struggle to initiate. Either way, stronger forcing aloft will arrive towards mid-evening, and so thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous and increasingly elevated, especially across central/northern Ireland and eventually drifting northwards offshore over the Atlantic and towards the Hebrides. With several thunderstorms potentially training over similar areas, this will bring the risk of local flooding. Most storms will generally drift to the N or NNW, but if mid-level rotation becomes strong enough some may deviate more to the NE.

Beautiful morning here in north Greater Dublin, will look forward to later this evening.

In SW Kildare, we didnt get any of the rain or thunder from the last event.

What are the chances for this evening. Looking at the charts I may as well be looking into a ditch

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

OWEN!!!

Thankfully it's has died down now,I need to do a bit of gliding yet and paint the living room,so 8pm will be good enough for me

I says wrote: »

Will I leave the dog in or out so

Oh course you bring the dog into the house:eek:.... unless you think its fair to leave him out in a thunderstorm!!... Remember dogs hear thunderstorms 4 times louder than we do, thats why they get so scared and run away....

Really clouding over here, south kilkenny, put a lid on heating.

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The Met Eireann 7 day rainfall map has been consistently downgrading precipitation over the last 24 hours. It is now showing none practically for the east coast. This is based upon the Harmonie I believe. Just to temper expectations with the official forecast not as gung ho currently. There does seem to be a view here that something spectacular is in the offing but it's not quite adding up for me.

The weather forum overhyping something? Surely not!

Joking aside I'd like to see some storms break out but the weather's lovely here at the moment. If it stays like this I'll be happy enough too.