Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

13567129

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Warm east might mean cold for us?

    When places like Alberta get milder weather during winter than they are used to, it can be good news for us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    I wasn't aware that snow was a common thing in Orkney, I know it's quite far north but it's surprising considering it's in a small island.

    It is between the far north of Scotland and Shetland so of course it gets snow. Not sure why it would not? Regardless of size. It snows at sea too ;).. And not just one island but a whole collection of islands. I was on one of the Outer North Islands. One larger and many smaller. Ours was about six miles by two. At least 2 hours from mainland Orkney by boat...

    We had snow every winter. There is a website listing the Top Ten snowiest places in the UK. and Orkney comes 4th with snow on 59 days of the year. Lovely photos if you google "snow Orkney". The gales were amazing so imagine the drifts....:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,355 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I had hailstones today in Connemara. Nasty shower. Nice to see some white stuff.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Has anyone put out any entertaining winter forecast yet?


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    bazlers wrote: »
    Has anyone put out any entertaining winter forecast yet?

    it's a bit early really as we are only half way through Autumn. Alot can happen between now and December. Gavs weather will issue his winter forecast around December 2nd.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes




  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Im sure MT Craniums' Winter forecast will be along quiet soon.
    My prediction is for a colder than average winter.
    Second half of November might bring first snowfalls.
    December will be average enough but after xamas another lengthy spell of frigid air will encroach from the north east and decend upon us for the first two to 3 weeks of january. This will be bitter cold with some of the coldest temps recorded for january for up to 40 Years.
    It will be dry though with only maybe one big snowfall.
    February will be average with March also cold but not near as cold as January.
    Time will tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,813 ✭✭✭NickNickleby


    Well, bazlers, that's a real pick-me-up :):)

    however, can I ask you to move November's snowfall to the 2nd and 3rd week of December, just to make it more Chrismassy, like.

    Failing that, we may have to burn down the observatory :pac::pac::pac:.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Well, bazlers, that's a real pick-me-up :):)

    however, can I ask you to move November's snowfall to the 2nd and 3rd week of December, just to make it more Chrismassy, like.

    Failing that, we may have to burn down the observatory :pac::pac::pac:.

    Yes burning down the observatory always helps ; )


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This winter is likely to be colder than the past two winters which is an easy target to beat. It remains to be seen if we get anything special this winter but I've a feeling we will definitely see more in the way of frost and precipitation of a wintry nature this winter compared to recent winters with perhaps the first half of winter being the coldest half.

    One of my main wishes for this winter apart from cold and snow is an overall dryer winter than last winter, completely fed up of the Atlantic and it's deluges, the past 12 months has overall been very wet aside from Spring.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This winter is likely to be colder than the past two winters which is an easy target to beat. It remains to be seen if we get anything special this winter but I've a feeling we will definitely see more in the way of frost and precipitation of a wintry nature this winter compared to recent winters with perhaps the first half of winter being the coldest half.

    One of my main wishes for this winter apart from cold and snow is an overall dryer winter than last winter, completely fed up of the Atlantic and it's deluges, the past 12 months has overall been very wet aside from Spring.

    Thank you. My immediate response to this, being of a practical nature, is to make sure I lag the pipe from the gas tank outside, and to store some water.. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We had our first snow at my location earlier today, about 3-5 cm of wet slushy accumulation, trending towards 15 cm on higher slopes around here (my elevation is 1080 m). This is actually two weeks later than 2019 but still a bit earlier than long-term average for this location.

    I am as alleged working on a winter outlook, not very far into the process yet and hoping to have something ready by the weekend perhaps, 20th absolute deadline.

    No preliminary hunches or impressions. I do know people who are gung-ho about this winter in Britain, but I think quiet sun is the main foundation of their optimism and we've had that for several years now.

    Like the patient gambler at the blackjack table, the chances of hitting a winning streak are always better the longer you play, so there is that. Even if this is the modern equivalent of the 1920s you could hit a 1929.

    Looks like some transient cold in central to eastern N America in coming week, but that's not a good omen statistically at least, the years I came up with as analogues all sucked for European cold winters (Oct 1972, 74, 87, 88, 2006 were among the colder ones). Could be a case of firing up the jet at an inopportune time and tilting the odds towards zonal flow.

    I suspect the indicators and trends will be weak favouring a near-average outcome but will go through the whole process and see what the number crunch indicates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This winter is likely to be colder than the past two winters which is an easy target to beat. It remains to be seen if we get anything special this winter but I've a feeling we will definitely see more in the way of frost and precipitation of a wintry nature this winter compared to recent winters with perhaps the first half of winter being the coldest half.

    One of my main wishes for this winter apart from cold and snow is an overall dryer winter than last winter, completely fed up of the Atlantic and it's deluges, the past 12 months has overall been very wet aside from Spring.

    I would bad weather and would love nothing more than a bad Winter, but it would have to my a dry winter for me to enjoy.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    bazlers wrote: »
    Im sure MT Craniums' Winter forecast will be along quiet soon.
    My prediction is for a colder than average winter.
    Second half of November might bring first snowfalls.
    December will be average enough but after xamas another lengthy spell of frigid air will encroach from the north east and decend upon us for the first two to 3 weeks of january. This will be bitter cold with some of the coldest temps recorded for january for up to 40 Years.
    It will be dry though with only maybe one big snowfall.
    February will be average with March also cold but not near as cold as January.
    Time will tell.

    I'm predicting a mild, wet, windy winter.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Loughc wrote: »
    I'm predicting a mild, wet, windy winter.

    more than likely that is what we will get as it is the form horse for Irish winters, given the almost unbroken run of mild winters (if you ignore that the Beast From The East in 2018 was more of a Spring event), we seem to get 1 decent winter every 10 years or so, last one being 2010, so mild winters tend to have a 90% success rate in this country.

    We are overdue a cold winter at this stage, particularly a cold December or January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Gonzo wrote: »
    more than likely that is what we will get as it is the form horse for Irish winters, given the almost unbroken run of mild winters (if you ignore that the Beast From The East in 2018 was more of a Spring event), we seem to get 1 decent winter every 10 years or so, last one being 2010, so mild winters tend to have a 90% success rate in this country.

    We are overdue a cold winter at this stage, particularly a cold December or January.

    2017/18 was pretty decent by Irish standards in my opinion, even ignoring the BFTE. it had many snowfalls, like the one on December 10th 2017 for example. Storm Fionn in January 2018 brought snow showers with lying snow even in Dublin, which is unusual for a northwesterly. February 2018 had some snow showers too from northwesterlies and also a frontal snow event which gave slight accumulations in the midlands and east around the 6th if I remember correctly.

    2014/15 wasn't too bad, it had lots of very frosty mornings and a temperature of -8c in Dublin (Casement?) in February 2015.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Any sign of a Canadian warming this November:D

    It has been a while since we had a proper snow event during the winter months

    I'm getting the impression from M.T. Cranium's earlier post that he thinks this winter will be an average one with no notable cold period. If this is the case we could still get a few snow days at times, which would be a lot better than last year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Any sign of a Canadian warming this November:D

    It has been a while since we had a proper snow event during the winter months

    I'm getting the impression from M.T. Cranium's earlier post that he thinks this winter will be an average one with no notable cold period. If this is the case we could still get a few snow days at times, which would be a lot better than last year.

    March could bail us out as usual if the winter fails :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Even MT wont get it close to100% right but I will say he is the best i know of for long range anyhow.
    I still say we will get decent cold this winter at times.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    I'm cheating a bit but I expect to see snow by mid November even earlier as I live in eastern Poland now.
    Temperatures are starting to drop after an extremely mild autumn so far .
    A slight rise towards the end of next week into the mid teens and expected to drop off there after.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    There's always a view here that we don't want snow over the Christmas period as it would interfere with visiting, socialising, etc. Arguably, therefore, if there was ever a year to get a snowy period over the last week of the year it would be this...... Kids would all be at home to enjoy playing outside with their friends too.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    yep normally I wish for snow through most of the winter with the exception of the 2 weeks leading up to Christmas day but this year is completely different as Christmas is basically a write-off this year so let it snow instead! At least we would have that to enjoy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    MT warning his winter forecast may not be what we want to hear tomorrow. I do want to see a very mild November and early December, then by law of averages the pattern must change by mid to end December to much colder weather. And we're due a colder than average winter. Purely speculating here, no science involved.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭Jimbob1977


    Does anyone happen to know if October snowfall is possible?

    In my lifetime, I can only remember snow in November to April.

    I seem to recall May 1st snowfall in the late 1980s.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    MT warning his winter forecast may not be what we want to hear tomorrow. I do want to see a very mild November and early December, then by law of averages the pattern must change by mid to end December to much colder weather. And we're due a colder than average winter. Purely speculating here, no science involved.

    Fully expecting him to mention “big windstorm around Christmas or just after” because of full moon etc. Forecast out tomorrow I believe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Jimbob1977 wrote: »
    Does anyone happen to know if October snowfall is possible?

    In my lifetime, I can only remember snow in November to April.

    I seem to recall May 1st snowfall in the late 1980s.

    It happened in October 2008. Around 29th -31st in the east (mainly falling on high ground) was a light dusting on the Dublin mountains if I do recall.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    we had a covering of snow here in Meath end of October 2008,however I wasn't here to enjoy it, was in Berlin at the time and it was snow free there, once I got back home the snow was well and truly melted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    esposito wrote: »
    Fully expecting him to mention “big windstorm around Christmas or just after” because of full moon etc. Forecast out tomorrow I believe.

    V much an amateur when it comes to all things forecasting. But is there a strong connection between full moons and wind storms?


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Jimbob1977 wrote: »
    Does anyone happen to know if October snowfall is possible?

    In my lifetime, I can only remember snow in November to April.

    I seem to recall May 1st snowfall in the late 1980s.

    I remember snow falling in October at least 4 times during my childhood living in Wicklow.


Advertisement