October 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry · 03-10-2020 11:43am

Sun seems to be way up to normal so far and not as wet as thought by most but maybe that will change in the coming week.

Some models are showing drier after this week

M.T. Cranium · 08-10-2020 7:03pm

After the first week ...

IMT on 9.6 which is 1.8 below normal.

MAX at least 15.8 (7th Moorepark)

MIN at least -0.8 (1st Markree)

PRC 155% of normal.

SUN 93% of normal (557/600).

Rikand · 11-10-2020 8:36pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After the first week ...

IMT on 9.6 which is 1.8 below normal.

MAX at least 15.8 (7th Moorepark)

MIN at least -0.8 (1st Markree)

PRC 155% of normal.

SUN 93% of normal (557/600).

pauldry wrote: »

Sun seems to be way up to normal so far and not as wet as thought by most but maybe that will change in the coming week.

Some models are showing drier after this week

You had to go and jinx it, didnt you ?

appledrop · 12-10-2020 2:55pm

Max of 16.0 at Newport yesterday.

I think that might be higest max yet.

M.T. Cranium · 15-10-2020 5:22pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 9.7, second week average was 9.8, which was 1.0 below normal.

MAX 16.0, MIN -0.8. (Max could be edged upward after today, 16 on hourly at Valentia)

PRC 96% of normal, second week rather dry at 37% over the grid (range 17 to 68 per cent).

SUN almost 130% now with a generous 166% this past week (995/600).

M.T. Cranium · 22-10-2020 1:57pm

Well then, after three weeks ...

IMT still on 9.8, the third week average was also 9.8 which was 0.3 below normal for that interval.

MAX remains 16.0, MIN -0.8.

PRC has edged back above normal to 102%, with the third week 115% of normal (mostly the last two days of the interval and heavier in the west).

SUN is down a bit to 111% as week three averaged only 73% of normal (437/600).

Tae laidir · 22-10-2020 3:23pm

No change to max and min.
Very small diurnal range this month.

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2020 9:23pm

Here's where things stand after four weeks with projections of end of month values ...

IMT now on 9.5 with the fourth week 8.8 which was 0.6 below normal. Today and the next two days will be quite mild and will boost the IMT to 9.7 or even 9.8 which was our consensus value. Nice going everyone.

MAX of 16.0 (very weak) has survived to present, could be edged upward either today or one of next two, although I doubt it will go more than a fraction higher and it will likely remain below all our predictions (Danno at 17.8 has the lock on high score then if so).

MIN of -0.8 will need to be reviewed on 3rd (MS day, I think, unless this be a bank holiday weekend for you, then 4th). ... This seems unlikely to change. Here again, above all our predictions, the closest we had was -2.4 from MrStonewall. Min progression (mercy rule) will be hauled out of storage for MAX and MIN.

PRC was at 106% with the fourth week similar at 116%. With today's rain and the predicted amounts incoming, would expect this to inflate slightly to an end value of 120%, our consensus was fairly good at 125%. (the math ... if the last three days average 200% then the outcome is 115%, if 250% then 120% and if 300% then 125%). The normal daily amount per station at present is around 4 mm, so my 250% would imply daily averages of 10 mm at the eleven locations. We have probably achieved that today, waiting to see how 30th and 31st work out.

SUN is back up again to 125% (fourth week 167% from 1002/600). Even with no sunshine at all 29th to 31st, that should mean an outcome of 112% so with some breaks tomorrow at least, will speculate 115% perhaps 120% the final value. While Danno foresaw 145% the second highest prediction of Rikand was 120%.

With the current forecast maps, would say the milder guesses for 31st midnight will do best, the mildest three we had were 7.0 from Bsal, 5.4 from Pauldry and 5.3 from 200motels. Could be even higher than those in a strong southwest wind flow.

A November forecast contest thread will be open some time before Friday morning, have a look for it tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2020 3:14am

It appears that the lowest temperature at midnight was 6 C at Knock, so congrats to Bsal (7.0), Pauldry (5.4) and 200motels (5.3) for scoring top points in the bonus.

Gonzo (4.3), Rikand (4.0), and mickger844posts (3.8) will have nine points for their forecasts.

Groups of two to four for each of the rest of scoring intervals from 8 down to one, depending on how close the pairs or triples/quads were to one another.

8 pts _ Artane2002 (3.3), Adam240610 (3.3), MrSkinner (3.1)

7 pts _ DOCARCH (also NormaL) (3.0), sryanbruen (2.8)

6 pts _ Mr Stonewall (2.4), Tae laidir (2.3)

5 pts _ sdanseo (2.1), Con Sensus (2.1), Joe Public and dasa29 (2.0)

4 pts _ Eon1208 (1.9), Danno (1.8)

3 pts _ JPmarn (1.4), sunflower3 (1.3), waterways (1.1), Appledrop (1.0)

2 pts _ John mac (0.3), M.T. Cranium (-0.5), dacogawa (-0.6)

1 pt __ Kindred Spirit (-1.5) Western Storm (-2.0), BLIZZARD7 (-3.0).

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2020 3:09pm

Final values to be confirmed on 3rd from MS

IMT _ 9.6 (from 9.64, didn't quite make the 9.7 I had estimated previously)

MAX 16.0 (31st max was 15.9)

MIN -0.8

PRC 116%

SUN 120%

Bonus scoring see previous post.

Provisional scoring for November 2020 (to be adjusted on 3rd Nov)

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Bonus __ TOTAL

Mrstonewall __________23 _ 08*_ 20*_ 13 _ 04 ___ 6 _____ 74

Danno ______________ 24 _ 20*_ 13*_ 05 _ 05 ___ 4 _____ 71

MrSkinner ___________ 20 _ 05*_ 16*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 8 _____ 70

mickger844posts ______24 _ 15*_ 14*_ 06 _ 02 ___ 9 _____ 70

Eon1208 ___ (-5) _____24 _ 17*_ 12*_ 11 _ 05 ___ 4 _73-5=68

Appledrop ___________ 22 _ 08*_ 16*_ 13 _ 04 ___ 3 _____ 66

sryanbruen __________ 24 _ 10*_ 16*_ 07 _ 01 ___ 7 _____ 65

200motels ___________23 _ 10*_ 13*_ 05 _ 04 __ 10 _____ 65

Artane2002 __________25 _ 15*_ 13*_ 01 _ 02 ___ 8 _____ 64

Bsal ________________24 _ 12*_ 10*_ 04 _ 04 __ 10 _____ 64

Jpmarn _____________ 16 _ 18*_ 12*_ 12 _ 03 ___ 3 _____ 64

___ Con Sensus ______ 23 _ 08*_ 12*_ 12 _ 04 ___ 5 _____ 64

Dasa29 _____________ 19 _ 01*_ 19*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 5 _____ 61

Rikand ______________21 _ 05*_ 10*_ 06 _ 10 ___ 9 _____ 61

Gonzo ______________ 23 _ 13*_ 11*_ 03 _ 02 ___ 9 _____ 61

John Mac ____________18 _ 04*_ 18*_ 13 _ 05 ___ 2 _____ 60

___ Normal __________20 _ 01*_ 16*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 7 _____ 60

waterways ___________22 _ 15*_ 11*_ 05 _ 02 ___ 3 _____ 58

DOCARCH ___________ 15 _ 01*_ 17*_ 12 _ 05 ___ 7 _____ 57

Joe Public ___________ 13 _ 19*_ 02*_ 14 _ 03 ___ 5 _____ 56

Kindred Spirit ________ 22 _ 05*_ 11*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 1 _____ 55

Tae laidir ____________17 _ 04*_ 14*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 6 _____ 54

Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 20 _ 05*_ 05*_ 10 _ 08 ___ 8 _56-2=54

Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 12*_ 13*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 3 _____ 53

Pauldry _____________ 22 _ 01*_ 12*_ 02 _ 04 __ 10 _____ 51

Dacogawa ___________ 24 _ 05*_ 12*_ 05 _ 02 ___ 2 _____ 50

WesternStorm ________16 _ 08*_ 10*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 1 _____ 49

sdanseo __ (-4) ______ 16 _ 03*_ 10*_ 12 _ 05 ___ 5 _51-4=47

M.T. Cranium _________23 _ 08*_ 05*_ 04 _ 00 ___ 2 _____ 42

BLIZZARD7 __________ 17 _ 15*_ 03*_ 04 _ 02 ___ 1 _____ 42

* scoring adjusted by minimum progression

(will postpone the commentary on above until confirmed ... and will add the annual update then)

========================================================
========================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp 24h 31st

DOCARCH ___________ 10.6 _ 21.3 _ -2.8 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 3.0

sdanseo __ (-4) ______ 10.5 _ 20.5 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 2.1

WesternStorm ________10.5 _ 19.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ -2.0

Tae laidir ____________10.4 _ 20.3 _ -3.3 _ 138 _ 094 ___ 2.3

John Mac ____________10.3 _ 20.3 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 0.3

Dasa29 _____________ 10.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 2.0

Normal _____________ 10.1 _ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 3.0

MrSkinner ___________10.1 _ 20.1 _ -3.1 _ 111 _ 111 ___ 3.1

Rikand ______________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 4.0

Pauldry ______________ 9.9 _ 21.1 _ -3.8 _ 155 _ 090 ___ 5.4

Kindred Spirit _________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 130 _ 100 __ -1.5

Appledrop ____________ 9.9 _ 19.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 1.0

waterways ____________9.9 _ 18.7 _ -3.9 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 1.1

Mrstonewall ___________9.8 _ 19.4 _ -2.4 _ 111 _ 088 ___ 2.4

200motels ____________9.8 _ 19.1 _ -3.6 _ 147 _ 091 ___ 5.3

___ Con Sensus _______ 9.8 _ 19.4 _ -3.7 _ 125 _ 091 ___ 2.1

Sunflower3 ___________ 9.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 1.3

sryanbruen ___________ 9.7 _ 19.1 _ -3.1 _ 140 _ 075 ___ 2.8

mickger844posts ______ 9.7 _ 18.7 _ -3.3 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 3.8

Eon1208 ___ (-5) _____ 9.7 _ 18.6 _ -3.7 _ 127 _ 093 ___ 1.9

Danno _______________9.7 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 085 _ 145 ___ 1.8

Artane2002 __________ 9.6 _ 18.7 _ -3.6 _ 157 _ 080 ___ 3.3

Dacogawa ___________ 9.5 _ 20.1 _ -3.8 _ 145 _ 082 __ -0.6

Bsal ________________ 9.5 _ 19.0 _ -4.0 _ 150 _ 091 ___ 7.0

M.T. Cranium _________ 9.4 _ 19.5 _ -4.2 _ 150 _ 070 __ -0.5

Gonzo _______________9.4 _ 18.8 _ -3.9 _ 153 _ 082 ___ 4.7

Adam240610 ___ (-2) __9.1 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 100 _ 111 ___ 3.3

BLIZZARD7 __________ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -4.7 _ 150 _ 080 __ -3.0

Jpmarn ______________8.7 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 1.4

Joe Public ____________8.4 _ 18.3 _ -4.8 _ 120 _ 083 ___ 2.0

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2020 8:24am

If any changes required to October scoring, this can be edited later. Will mention any changes here.

Annual scoring update January to October 2020

The total scores are still tracked in the left column but the table is now in the order of the final rank value for best 8 of 10 currently trending towards eventual best 10/12.

rank _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct __TOTAL___ Best 8/10 (rank, prev)

(01)_(01)__ NormaL _______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 _ 78 _ 59 _ 70 _ 71 _ 60 __ 638 ____ 536 (01) (01)

01_(01)_Jpmarn __________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 _ 62 _ 73 _ 71 _ 61 _ 64 __ 618 ____ 529 (01) (02)

04_(t02) _Pauldry _________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 _ 79 _ 77 _ 76 _ 38 _ 51 __ 593 ____ 519 (02) (01)

02_(t02)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 _ 49 _ 49 _ 62 _ 49 _ 70 __ 612 ____ 514 (03t) (06)

03_(04)_ Dasa29 __________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 _ 63 _ 66 _ 70 _ 76 _ 61 __ 600 ____ 514 (03t) (03)

14_(15)_Rikand ___________68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 _ 41 _ --- _ 71 _ 68 _ 61 __ 550 ____ 512 (05) (04)

05 _(07) _sryanbruen ______ 47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 _ 54 _ 70 _ 35 _ 58 _ 65 __ 589 ____ 511 (06) (05)

(t02)_(02)__ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 _ 64 _ 58 _ 49 _ 60 _ 64 __ 612 ____ 506 (07) (07)

15_(17)_200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 _ 65 _ 60 _ 43 _ 64 _ 65 __ 540 ____ 497 (07) (10t)

12_(11) _ Adam240610 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 _ 80 _ 64 _ 37 _ 58 _ 54 __ 567 ____ 492 (08) (07)

06_(06)_DOCARCH ________58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 _ 69 _ 62 _ 68 _ 47 _ 57 __ 588 ____ 491 (09) (09)

09_(t08) _Artane2002 ______56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 _ 50 _ 61 _ 42 _ 59 _ 64 __ 581 ____ 489 (10) (14)

08_(10)_ mickger844posts __ 55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 50 _ 70 __ 586 ____ 488 (11) (16)

07_(05)_ Dacogawa ________73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 _ 59 _ 63 _ 62 _ 50 _ 50 __ 587 ____ 487 (12t) (08)

11_(t08)_ Kindred Spirit_____61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 _ 53 _ 37 _ 53 _ 48 _ 55 __ 572 ____ 487 (12t) (10t)

18_(18)_Joe Public ________ 70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 _ 59 _ --- _ 47 _ 69 _ 56 __ 525 ____ 486 (14) (12)

13_(13)_ Sunflower3 ______ 68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 _ 71 _ 32 _ 68 _ 51 _ 53 __ 561 ____ 479 (15) (13)

10_(12)_Bsal ____________ 62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 _ 49 _ 67 _ 65 _ 56 _ 64 __ 574 ____ 477 (16) (17t)

19_(19) _waterways _______--- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 _ 42 _ 63 _ 57 _ 86 _ 58 __ 513 ____ 471 (17) (17t)

17_(14)_M.T. Cranium _____ 69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 _ 75 _ 46 _ 44 _ 64 _ 42 __ 545 ____ 468 (18) (15)

16_(16) _john mac ________ 64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 _ 57 _ 41 _ 51 _ 55 _ 60 __ 546 ____ 459 (19) (19)

20_(20) _Tae laidir ________ 67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 _ 37 _ 35 _ 60 _ 54 __ 497 ____ 425 (20) (20)

21_(21) _BLIZZARD7 ______ 66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 _ 15 _ --- _ 29 _ 46 _ 42 __ 378 ____ 363 (21) (21)

22_(22)_Appledrop ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ 80 _ 71 _ 48 _ 66 __312

23 _(23)_Mr Stonewall _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 _ 50 _ --- _ 43 _ 69 _ 74 __ 270

24 _(25) _Gonzo __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 84 _ 25 _ 68 _ 61 __ 238

25 _(24)_WesternStorm _____54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 20 _ 48 _ 56 _ 49 __ 227

26 _(27) _Eon1208 ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 57 _ 32 _ 68 __ 207

27_ (26)_Tazio ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 35 _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- __ 150

28 _(---) _Danno __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 71 ___ 71

29 _(28)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- ___ 58

30 _(29)_esposito __________49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 49

31 _(---) _sdanseo _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 ___ 47

=================================================

Note: Last month, five ranks for best 7/9 were shown as 8 to t11 after Con Sensus (7th) and they should have been shown as 7 to t10. This error was not continued past t11 so in the previous table all other forecaster ranks were okay. Those five have been corrected here with the second bracket at the end showing last month's actual rank.

Anyway, would say from this preliminary posting that the contest is very close at this point, hopefully some of the leaders can pass NormaL this month and or next. ... It appears that the only two forecasters who did not use their November score (because it was one of two lowest) were dacogawa and myself, 19 of 21 used the score (some have only one discard having missed one month).

Also nice to see some regular participation now from the newcomers earlier in the year. Hope you stay with us.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2020 5:42pm

All the above scoring is confirmed.

In the final values, we had all missed a reading of 16.8 on 3rd at Newport, so the 16.0 that happened later there was not the MAX. However, 16.8 was no better than 16.0 in terms of raw scoring except that Danno (17.8) was then joined by Joe Public (18.3) as being inside the zone of actual raw scores, so the same minimum progression situation existed anyway, end of story. It was the same sad story with MIN, three forecasts would have scraped into low raw scores (Mr Stonewall -2.4 and dasa29 -2.5, John mac -2.6).

The highest raw score total in the contest was therefore 38 (everyone would have discarded Oct).

My sunshine estimate was confirmed by the data, average daily sunshine at the six locations 3.6 hours and mean daily sunshine in normal values 3.0. (120%). The IMT (9.6), PRC (116%) and MIN (-0.8) were already worked out by me, or tracked by you.

So then, looking at the annual scoring, I found it interesting to compare the months and see which ones had been discarded for scoring. We have 21 forecasters with enough scores to compete in best 10/12, of whom five have missed one month. That makes for a total of 37 discarded scores. Those are so far distributed as follows:

JAN 1 __ FEB 4 __ MAR 2 __ APR 4 __ MAY 3 __ JUN 6 __ JUL 5 __ AUG 5 __ SEP 5 __ OCT 2 __

In addition to that, NormaL discards Feb and May, and Con Sensus discards May and August.

This contest has more people ahead of Con Sensus (at least in best 8/10) than most years. I think it's due to the frequent need to score from minimum progression where half the field will beat Con Sensus.

Anyway, congrats to JPmarn, Pauldry, MrSkinner, dasa29, rikand and sryanbruen who are all ahead of Con Sensus in the main contest, only two of them have a higher total score (or equal) though.

In the last two contest months, your scores will count unless they are (either or both) lower than your high discard, if you fall below that, the high discard score is added. So I will track the above list of discards used, and see where we end up after twelve months.

October 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

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