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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Hail in Naas

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭lolie


    From Convectiveweather
    largethumb.php?date=2020-05-07

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 07 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 08 May 2020

    ISSUED 21:28 UTC Wed 06 May 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper ridge will gradually retreat to the Continent, allowing the flow aloft to veer round to the southwest. This will advect a moisture plume of relatively high ThetaW, stretching from Ireland to SW England first thing on Thursday morning, northeastwards across the British Isles through the day. Initially, some modest elevated instability will be present, with subtle impulses aiding in the development of pulses of showery rain drifting N/NE-wards through the day. As a result, there will be a low (but non-zero) risk of isolated lightning, hence the broad LOW threat area.

    Diurnal heating will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE by late morning, and more especially into the afternoon. The slack surface pattern will encourage areas of low-level convergence to form, and these (in conjunction with orographic forcing) will provide the primary focus for lift in order to develop a few scattered showers. CAM guidance suggests surface-based convection may initiate around 12-1pm, particularly across parts of Ireland and SW England, with additional development then likely through the afternoon and evening hours in other parts of Ireland / England and Wales. Some sporadic lightning seems likely over parts of the Republic of Ireland into Northern Ireland (30-35% chance) during the afternoon and early evening where convection will be deepest (but dependent on sufficient cloud clearance),


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Not surprised there was no sferics showing up in the S /SW last night ( seemed like very weak parameters for any real convection to get going ) but there did seem a bit more of a chance today in the NW /N. Looking at the temperatures and Sat pic it would suggest a lot of cloud cover and not much heating got through. Shear was always looking very low and the surface convergence was very weak it would seem. Ireland being so benign in general really does need more instability in the atmosphere with good temperature contrasts . Just not enough umph I suppose. There was a couple of good storms last year during the summer that headed up form Biscay on warm moist plumes into the S and SE and moved up the country, will be interesting to see if some develop this year.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Had to do a double take when I saw this come over the ridge, looks like a cartoon tornado !!

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    Had to do a double take when I saw this come over the ridge, looks like a cartoon tornado !!

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    Lovely. Saw loads of Lenticulars over this side of the Slieve Mish mountains also today.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Saturday looks like it could get quite warm, possibly up to 21C or 22C in places. Fairly high theta E reading coupled with the days heating looks like setting off some convective showers, heavy in places, with perhaps sporadic lightning possible .

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Met Éireann forecast this morning gunning for isolated heavy showers tomorrow, the regional forecasts also mention thunder.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Could be a lively day in Munster tomorrow .

    Met Eireann ' Warm sunny spells tomorrow, with scattered afternoon showers, some heavy, with the potential for slow-moving thundery downpours, which could lead to localised flooding.'


    Heat looks to build early, could be hitting 19 - 20C by around 13.00 , high theta E, convergence, topographical lift, high Dp up to 13 or 14C.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Other models showing widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out towards late afternoon / early evening


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    OK thats my mind made up, everything is going to be unplugged by 10, as always its right on top of me I cant afford another strike.

    Thanks for the heads up..


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    SlowBlowin wrote: »
    OK thats my mind made up, everything is going to be unplugged by 10, as always its right on top of me I cant afford another strike.

    Thanks for the heads up..

    Yeah looks like there could be storms over the mountains all right , will be watching out for your reports !


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Pileus Cloud here today

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,335 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Yeah looks like there could be storms over the mountains all right , will be watching out for your reports !

    Will we get rain North of Tralee?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 312 ✭✭ Luciano Dead Underwear


    Hopefully we get some good action. This sunny weather is boring me..


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Could be an exciting day for Limerick city and surrounds. I would love to go storm chasing but it is not on when there is a dangerous virus about and guards about to stop you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭highdef


    Can already see signs of convection over the Wicklow mountains where conditions are not favourable so perhaps a good sign for the southwest.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    highdef wrote: »
    Can already see signs of convection oven the Wicklow mountains where conditions are not favourable so perhaps a good sign for the southwest.

    19.0C here already with a light WNW breeze, Rh 81C, Dp 16C

    Looks like a good gentle convergence in effect.

    Can see convection forming inland already looking SE. Like Jpmarn said it would be great to get a better vantage point but it will have to be from home and by computer, interesting one.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Beginning to bubble up here in Castlebar


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Nice convection brewing

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Starting to kick off already..



    Good few rumbles here near Tralee, out of the firing line for now, early start.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Some clouds building to the south of me in cork city, don't think we will get anything but high topped clouds are amazing to see


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,423 ✭✭✭weisses


    Some proper rumbling going on naar killarney .... beautiful cell forming


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    West Clare looking south towards Kerry.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Distant rumbles of thunder from them clouds in west Clare now.

    Very loud and rolling. Crazy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 738 ✭✭✭Timistry


    Orographic lift playing it’s part


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    The showers building now don't appear to be going anywhere, so you'd expect some localised flooding as the afternoon progresses. A line up the Shannon from Limerick to Athlone later this afternoon


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,946 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Yellow thunderstorm warning from Met.
    Lots of sparks now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Rather amazing looking south from West Clare, as the old ones die away new ones pop up. Constant thunder to be heard, rumbles every minute or so.

    Despite that it's amazingly hot, calm and sunny in west Clare.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    So is cork city gonna see any action from this??


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