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Potential Storm Watch Fri 7 Dec 2018

2456

Comments

  • Posts: 0 Lilah Fit Yokel


    Just taking a look through the charts on the phone also and I would think that they have increased wind speeds over the last two runs, the system early Fri morning a lot closer to the NW coasts. Wouldent be surprised to see wind speeds increase more. Fri looking very windy and squally across the country.

    12Z GFS doesn't seem as severe as the 6Z run.

    gfs-0-45-3h_vkq8.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Siobhan Ryan on the weather there, "pressure will fall from 1000 down to 983 with rapid cyclogenesis occurring, every chance now the warning will be upgraded to Orange"


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,800 ✭✭✭Tomtom364


    Is Friday evening looking likely to have disruptive weather aswell or is it looking like a mostly Thursday night Friday morning event?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Personal note to oneself - now cast situation,explosive cyclongenesis,(bombogenesis)severe local conditions,sting jet,damaging winds in west/northwest,egg on face.

    Orange warning imminent.



    Rest of the country-tut shore it wasn't bad at all

    Cue warning criteria debate.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cant post charts atm but have a look at the HIRLAM , severe along the W , NW , N coasts early Fri morning.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Tomtom364 wrote: »
    Is Friday evening looking likely to have disruptive weather aswell or is it looking like a mostly Thursday night Friday morning event?

    There is potential for a second bout of severe winds across the south and west Friday evening,stay tuned to your local forecast and keep up to dat with met.ie warnings which maybe upgraded by morning time


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree




  • Posts: 0 Lilah Fit Yokel


    Cant post charts atm but have a look at the HIRLAM , severe along the W , NW , N coasts early Fri morning.

    Yep, looks nasty for a while. Mean speeds of 100+ km/h in the coastal areas of the W & NW for a time if accurate.

    hirlamuk-3-34-0_rkw2.png

    Adding the FMI-HIRLAM chart for gusts. 140 km/h possible, reaching into inland areas of NW Mayo first and then into Donegal.

    fmiuk-11-40-0_ppc4.png


  • Posts: 0 Lilah Fit Yokel


    Projected 15 millibar pressure differential between Westport (990) and the tip of NW Donegal (975) in the early morning. Almost 30 mb difference from NW Donegal to SW Cork.


    hirlamuk-2-36-0_eca2.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The ECM showing some very strong winds along the W and NW coasts, 110 to 130 km/h or perhaps even a bit higher. The European models are keeping the track closer to the Irish coast , American a bit further out and less strong. Would side with the European at this stage. If the storm tracked even 60 km closer it would bring very strong damaging winds inland. Hard to know if it will do so, it seems to have settled into the shown track atm...we will see. As squarecircles said it is coming down to a nowcast.

    dVw3VYj.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE track very similar to the ECM but a bit less strong.

    HIRLAM has the closest track and probably strongest winds on the present run, would be inclined to trust the HIRLAM over the ARPEGE. The HIRLAM would bring severe damaging winds to W Galway, Mayo, Sligo, NW Leitrim and Donegal if this were to verify. Don't know if it will . I think very possible to see Orange warnings at least by tomorrow unless the system takes a track further out. Close.


    tempresult_tms5.gif



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HIRLAM 18Z 10m Mean Wind Speeds ( kt)

    VawCT7o.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM along with the rest of the models slight shift W with the track keeping the strongest winds out over the sea and just skimming the coasts.. Yellow warnings look set to remain as of now I reckon. The track looks fairly set .


  • Posts: 0 Lilah Fit Yokel


    ECM along with the rest of the models slight shift W with the track keeping the strongest winds out over the sea and just skimming the coasts.. Yellow warnings look set to remain as of now I reckon. The track looks fairly set .

    Yep, 0Z HIRLAM keeps the strongest winds a bit further West than the previous run.

    fmiuk-11-28-0_ttm7.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    MetE played this one very well as usual it seems


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow(update 1043) - Wind warning for Connacht, Cavan, Donegal, Clare, Kerry and Limerick

    Southwest winds will reach mean wind speeds between 55 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h during the period, strongest near coasts where these limits may be exceeded at times.

    Issued: Wednesday 05 December 2018 12:00

    Updated: Thursday 06 December 2018 10:43

    Valid from Thursday 06 December 2018 22:00 to Friday 07 December 2018 12:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,785 ✭✭✭CrowdedHouse


    Gone orange for Donegal and Mayo

    Seven Worlds will Collide



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup n coastal damage too


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Will it get named now since it has gone orange. Or is it not affecting enough counties?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Deirdre!


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Gets very close to Belmullet id expect a large gust reading there


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    BBC NI day it won’t be named! I defended Met Éireann when Fionn was named as they were simply following the criteria but this makes a mockery of the system!


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Villain wrote: »
    BBC NI day it won’t be named! I defended Met Éireann when Fionn was named as they were simply following the criteria but this makes a mockery of the system!

    How does it make a mockery of the system?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    How does it make a mockery of the system?

    Because the criteria was that any Orange Weather Warnings means the event is given a name.

    I mean Fionn wasn’t even a proper low but it reached Orange criteria so was named. I could see why Liam Dutton and others thought that was silly but I defended Met Eireann as that is the system in place.

    This goes against that which means no consistency and will only further confuse people.

    Just move to impact based system same as UK and name orange events, then people will be able to have more confidence in the system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Doesn't deserve a name looking at their Harmonie model on Twitter.
    Impact based system looks the way forward alright as only the very Norh West looks the windiest.
    From midnight to 4am Friday.
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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    The orange warning reads strangely, it's as if it's not a real one. Only valid for coastal and upland areas it seems, but would people living in these locations not expect harsher weather anyway?

    It appears the system may not actually be named.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    It looks like this storm will pass most people by considering the timing and location. Perhaps some flooding around the high tides.


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