Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

LiamaDelta · 26-01-2021 10:18am

alentejo wrote: »

The whole stopping you travel bit could defo be challenged in the courts. If there is a flight and its flying plus I am leaving the state, cant see how they could legally stop you. Would the state be liable to pay for costs including any hotel bookings....free movement of people etc

Legally they stop you by instructing you to return to your home. If you don't comply then you're breaking that law.

Captain_Crash · 26-01-2021 11:50am

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Legally they stop you by instructing you to return to your home. If you don't comply then you're breaking that law.

It’ll be up to them to prove your reason for travel is non essential, that’s where it gets messy!

donkey balls · 26-01-2021 12:29pm

Poll: Are you planning a holiday abroad this year? https://jrnl.ie/5335620

Leo mentioning quarantine hotels right up to Xmas of this year for people travelling home, Also saying we may right off the summer for getting away.
This is going be a long f**king year.

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 12:51pm

F*** me, that's depressing! If we're still not allowed back from anywhere once 70+% of the population are vaccinated I give up.

trellheim · 26-01-2021 12:59pm

It’ll be up to them to prove your reason for travel is non essential, that’s where it gets messy!

The other way round, you have to prove it is essential, if I recall. It is not normal times.

Captain_Crash · 26-01-2021 1:12pm

trellheim wrote: »

The other way round, you have to prove it is essential, if I recall. It is not normal times.

I finished studying law several years ago, so would have to refresh my memory as I don’t work in that area... but when I last had a textbook open the burden of proof was always on the person trying to establish fact.

So if a guard alleged x y or z, it’s up to him to prove it, not to me to prove him wrong. I don’t know of any enacted legislation or case law since then that has changed that basic principle!

LiamaDelta · 26-01-2021 1:23pm

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I finished studying law several years ago, so would have to refresh my memory as I don’t work in that area... but when I last had a textbook open the burden of proof was always on the person trying to establish fact.

So if a guard alleged x y or z, it’s up to him to prove it, not to me to prove him wrong. I don’t know of any enacted legislation or case law since then that has changed that basic principle!

The guard can make the judgement that your journey is not essential based on the evidence and testimony you supply and so instruct you to return to your home. This is why, in general, they err on the side of caution and have tended to only issue fines where it is blatantly obvious that the person is breaching the regulations, thus very easy to prove if challenged in court. e.g. people 'exercising' at beauty spots where there is minimal housing in the surrounding area.

Tenger · 26-01-2021 2:28pm

BigMoose wrote: »

F*** me, that's depressing! If we're still not allowed back from anywhere once 70+% of the population are vaccinated I give up.

The current talk is based on the current situation. Once the vaccinations reach over 40% we can start looking at adjusting our restrictions.

I've seen a similar argument from both anti-vaxxers and right wingers. "if taking the vaccine doesn't change the restrictions then why should we take it?"

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 2:40pm

Tenger wrote: »

The current talk is based on the current situation. Once the vaccinations reach over 40% we can start looking at adjusting our restrictions.

I've seen a similar argument from both anti-vaxxers and right wingers. "if taking the vaccine doesn't change the restrictions then why should we take it?"

But that's not what Leo said, from the article posted: "I don’t think we would reverse (it) until everyone is vaccinated and then heading into winter you wouldn’t want to open flights before Christmas."

If he said "we'll assess the situation as more get vaccinated" that would be fine...

Cookiemunster · 26-01-2021 2:48pm

BigMoose wrote: »

But that's not what Leo said, from the article posted: "I don’t think we would reverse (it) until everyone is vaccinated and then heading into winter you wouldn’t want to open flights before Christmas."

If he said "we'll assess the situation as more get vaccinated" that would be fine...

Leo's been well known for flying kites and then doing the opposite of what he's suggested over the last few months. Unless it's stated as national policy I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

zuutroy · 26-01-2021 2:52pm

Leo's statement is 100% politics and nothing else. It would be too hard to undo, so if this is what you want then say goodbye to summer and Christmas....crazy statement.

IngazZagni · 26-01-2021 6:24pm

zuutroy wrote: »

Leo's statement is 100% politics and nothing else. It would be too hard to undo, so if this is what you want then say goodbye to summer and Christmas....crazy statement.

The media are constantly guilty of this. They take a snippet of what he said and present it as a headline. The general public then run with this as fact.
It appears yet again this has been taken out of context. Read or listen to the full statement and the question that went with it on the Claire Byrne show.

Basically he was saying that that’s what would be required if we went for a zero covid strategy and he’s not in favour of that right now, neither is NPHET.

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 6:28pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

The media are constantly guilty of this. They take a snippet of what he said and present it as a headline. The general public then run with this as fact.
It appears yet again this has been taken out of context. Read or listen to the full statement and the question that went with it on the Claire Byrne show.

He was pretty clear on todays briefing that regardless of how many are vaccinated you wouldn't want to open up at Christmas and let a flood of folk with the virus in. With no explanation of why not if the vaccine stops 90% of vaccinated folk dying or needing hospital care...

IngazZagni · 26-01-2021 6:55pm

BigMoose wrote: »

He was pretty clear on todays briefing that regardless of how many are vaccinated you wouldn't want to open up at Christmas and let a flood of folk with the virus in. With no explanation of why not if the vaccine stops 90% of vaccinated folk dying or needing hospital care...

I’m not sure I heard the same thing as you?
To me he said international travel can’t happen in a normal way in March and April.

He specifically said he hopes international summer travel can happen in the summer but it will be dependent on the vaccines being effective and there’s no guarantee yet on that.
He also said if we wanted a zero covid approach which he’s against, you’d probably be unlikely to have any international travel for the year and on that point, New Zealand has indicated no international travel will happen without mandatory quarantine for all of 2021.

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 7:08pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

I’m not sure I heard the same thing as you?
To me he said international travel can’t happen in a normal way in March and April.

He specifically said he hopes international summer travel can happen in the summer but it will be dependent on the vaccines being effective and there’s no guarantee yet on that.
He also said if we wanted a zero covid approach which he’s against, you’d probably be unlikely to have any international travel for the year and on that point, New Zealand has indicated no international travel will happen without mandatory quarantine for all of 2021.

I was working at the same time as watching so hope you're right as I missed that - will watch again later

IngazZagni · 26-01-2021 7:15pm

BigMoose wrote: »

I was working at the same time as watching so hope you're right as I missed that - will watch again later

The thing is it’s all hypothetical right now. Will the vaccines actually work? Will new variants render them useless? At what stage do we reach herd immunity, if that’s even possible?

We don’t know and we won’t know for a while. Let’s all keep the fingers crossed.

Tenger · 26-01-2021 7:27pm

I wonder what impact these new restrictions will have upon the Irish Airlines.

The airlines were perhaps expecting to see some bookings being made in March/April for later in the year. People aren't going to be making travel plans while we are still under level 5 restrictions.

On a related point will the airlines request that their crew are bumped up in vaccine priority? If the passengers require negative test results and/or quarantine then some monitoring of the currently exempt crew would be needed.
I know that Singapore are already providing their crew with testing after each foreign trip. (as well as full PPE rather than the face mask and sanitisers of the 2 main Irish airlines)

Jack1985 · 26-01-2021 7:38pm

Tenger wrote: »

On a related point will the airlines request that their crew are bumped up in vaccine priority? If the passengers require negative test results and/or quarantine then some monitoring of the currently exempt crew would be needed.
I know that Singapore are already providing their crew with testing after each foreign trip. (as well as full PPE rather than the face mask and sanitisers of the 2 main Irish airlines)

This has been entirely moot. Regards schedules, the forecast 70% schedules at EI and proposed MAN base sound like folklore at this rate, to many variables against the industry and confidence is floored, worse than Summer 20 in my view.

I don't see how EI in particular can stumble on as it has the last few months without signifcant capital boost.

snotboogie · 26-01-2021 10:39pm

BigMoose wrote: »

He was pretty clear on todays briefing that regardless of how many are vaccinated you wouldn't want to open up at Christmas and let a flood of folk with the virus in. With no explanation of why not if the vaccine stops 90% of vaccinated folk dying or needing hospital care...

The vaccine stops 90% of people catching the virus, it stops well in excess of 99% of people needing hospital care. I see this misinterpreted all the time

Noxegon · 26-01-2021 10:54pm

So now arrivals from Brazil and South Africa will be required to quarantine in a hotel....

...but since Ireland has no direct flights from either, these people will be sharing an aircraft with crew and passengers from their connecting points, be they LHR, CDG, AMS, DXB, DOH....

It's a good thing the virus knows that it's not allowed to infect others on board aircraft!

donkey balls · 26-01-2021 11:07pm

This time last year a government spokesperson said Ireland had nothing to worry about the virus as we had no direct flights to China, Just goes to show either the arrogance or complete utter incompetence of some dept heads in government.

Locker10a · 26-01-2021 11:27pm

donkey balls wrote: »

This time last year a government spokesperson said Ireland had nothing to worry about the virus as we had no direct flights to China, Just goes to show either the arrogance or complete utter incompetence of some dept heads in government.

In fairness nobody thought it would become what it has, so they probably didn’t think this time last year it would become the global pandemic it did, I certainly didn’t and I’m sorry but I don’t believe you did either, so why would anyone in government in January 2020 have known better, they couldn’t have known, even 1 month ago we didn’t know about the new strains, everything changes by the week and day. All we can do is firefight, sadly this is an absolute disaster for aviation

donkey balls · 26-01-2021 11:32pm

Locker10a wrote: »

In fairness nobody thought it would become what it has, so they probably didn’t think this time last year it would become the global pandemic it did, I certainly didn’t and I’m sorry but I don’t believe you did either, so why would anyone in government in January 2020 have known better, they couldn’t have known, even 1 month ago we didn’t know about the new strains, everything changes by the week and day. All we can do is firefight, sadly this is an absolute disaster for aviation

Think you're missing the part were they said no direct flights from China to Ireland so no need to worry about the virus getting to Ireland.

billy few mates · 27-01-2021 7:59am

donkey balls wrote: »

Think you're missing the part were they said no direct flights from China to Ireland so no need to worry about the virus getting to Ireland.

Who said this...?

donkey balls · 27-01-2021 9:25am

billy few mates wrote: »

Who said this...?

I heard it last year on the radio in work the news presenter said that a government officail/spokeperson said that Ireland did not have to worry.
About the virus as we had no direct flights to China.

murphym7 · 27-01-2021 10:17am

donkey balls wrote: »

I heard it last year on the radio in work the news presenter said that a government officail/spokeperson said that Ireland did not have to worry.
About the virus as we had no direct flights to China.

I remember that too and thought it was a silly statement to make at the time.

Jack1985 · 27-01-2021 10:31am

Yeah, and a member of the great opposition in SF told people it was crazy to be still eating Chinese chicken on a radio station, the brightest of the lot weren't exactly firing on all cylinders in March.

donkey balls · 27-01-2021 11:00am

Jack1985 wrote: »

Yeah, and a member of the great opposition in SF told people it was crazy to be still eating Chinese chicken on a radio station, the brightest of the lot weren't exactly firing on all cylinders in March.

You will find a lot of politicians havent a clue about aviation take that Dooley lad from FF who was on the TV& Radio giving it loads about the government selling the remaining share of EI to IAG.
He kept on saying AIG throughout interviews and he forgot that it was his party that got the wheels turning in privatising EI.

Jack1985 · 27-01-2021 1:04pm

donkey balls wrote: »

You will find a lot of politicians havent a clue about aviation take that Dooley lad from FF who was on the TV& Radio giving it loads about the government selling the remaining share of EI to IAG.
He kept on saying AIG throughout interviews and he forgot that it was his party that got the wheels turning in privatising EI.

They haven't a clue full stop concerning Aviation, which isn't a new element to governance of this country.

Very true regarding Dooley and FF's time in direct governance in 2005, they did exactly that. Timmy voted against IAG privitisation, it's the only real reason he jumps when the name pop's up in relation to it to get support of local's in Mid-West working at SNN.

bk · 27-01-2021 1:11pm

snotboogie wrote: »

The vaccine stops 90% of people catching the virus, it stops well in excess of 99% of people needing hospital care. I see this misinterpreted all the time

Just to be clear, there is little evidence * yet that the vaccines stop you from catching the virus or passing it on.

What the vaccines are proven to do is to stop SARS-Cov-2 (the virus) from developing into a serious case of Covid19 (the disease) and in particular hospitalisation and death.

This is a subtle but important difference from a public health perspective. What it means is those who are vaccinated still need to take precautions, like wearing masks, etc. so they don't pass it onto non vaccinated people.

* There is some early evidence from Israel that it shows some reduction (in the range of 30 to 60%) in the spread of the virus, but it is still very early days on that evidence, still probably a month or two from knowing.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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