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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 14 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with intervals of light rain, a further 5 to 8 mm on average, and very mild with highs 12 to 15 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain becoming mostly confined to Atlantic coastal counties where 5 to 10 mm likely, otherwise, cloudy with some breaks, misty and quite mild, lows generally 10 to 12 C.

    THURSDAY ... Rain will back off to the west coast and eventually out to sea, leaving most regions dry and still quite mild in a moderate southerly wind 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

    FRIDAY ... Hazy, some low cloud but dry with lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

    SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle but generally no accumulation, and not quite as mild in a moderate southeast wind of 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, mostly cloudy with some brief sunny breaks more frequent in west, and feeling rather cold in the wind with lows 3 to 5 C and highs about 7 to 9 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cooler trend seems likely to continue with winds more easterly and this may begin to moisten the flow at lower levels from the North Sea and Irish Sea, so that after a cold, dry and partly sunny day on Monday, by midweek it may be cloudy much of the time despite high pressure nearby to the north. Rather cold with highs 5 to 8 C and lows near or slightly below freezing. Some drizzle may be expected near east coast. A disturbance moving west towards the south coast of Ireland later in the week could bring a more prolonged interval of cold rain with sleet on higher ground possibly, and temperatures around 5 C. This may break to a colder northerly flow although that solution is not too strongly indicated yet, so at some point there may be a chance for wintry precipitation before November ends. This will certainly be the case in higher parts of Britain and some parts of the near continent but the air mass approaching is not quite fully supportive of snow at low elevations further west into Ireland, in part due to lingering warmth in the nearby seas, and just the fact that upper level parameters are somewhat marginal even for mid-winter to get too excited about snow yet.

    My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with a high near 6 C. We are expecting another dusting of snow but changing over to rain before ending. The really cold air is staying east of the Rockies at this point and heading for the Great Lakes region where snow squall warnings are in the forecasts.

    Regarding the winter forecast that I issued in preliminary form, I am fairly sure now that this is in the realm of possibility, will confirm that in a week or two, but I keep seeing other forecasts that come up with cold patterns and blocking from all sorts of different research perspectives, so it's becoming a trend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 15 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rain will continue near the west coast with further amounts of 10 to 20 mm possible, and there may be one brief return of light rain a little further east around mid-day before the system pulls away to the north, but parts of the south and east will remain dry with some sunshine at times, staying very mild with highs 13 to 16 C. Moderate southerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

    TONIGHT ... Some clearing, moderate southerly winds easing and lows 4 to 7 C.

    FRIDAY ... Hazy, some sunny intervals and some patchy low cloud more frequent near south coast, moderate to strong southeast winds developing, 50 to 80 km/hr, with highs near 13 C.

    SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle but generally no accumulation, and not quite as mild in a moderate southeast wind of 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, mostly cloudy with some brief sunny breaks more frequent in west, and feeling rather cold in the wind with lows 3 to 5 C and highs about 7 to 9 C.

    MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, moderate east to southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, cold, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle by late in the day near east coast, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C, easterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

    OUTLOOK ... Intervals of light rain or drizzle in cold, raw east to southeast winds, risk of some intervals of heavier rain turning to sleet on higher ground mid-week to Friday, highs generally only 4 to 7 C at best.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance then diverges into two camps, one showing further east winds that may eventually turn more northeast bringing in even colder air before end of November, but another alternate suggestion that the original moderately cold air mass will remain in place while Atlantic moisture tries to push back against it, which may be a slightly milder solution but still quite raw and turning wet at times towards the end of the month. I won't try to handicap these two alternatives, just waiting to see if the colder solution remains an option by early next week then it could be more plausible.

    My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with outbreaks of sleety light rain ending in the early afternoon, and the high was about 4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 16 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Slowly but surely, we seem to be heading into some winter weather ... but I don't think it will really become totally "winter" in the first stage next week, perhaps in the week after that.

    Forecasts continue as before ...

    TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, mainly dry although spots of drizzle from the low cloud that is likely to stream in from the south coast at times, with moderate to strong southeast winds developing, 50 to 80 km/hr, with highs still quite mild near 13 C.

    TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, spotty drizzle at times, moderate southeast winds, lows 7 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle but generally no accumulation, and not quite as mild in a moderate southeast wind of 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, mostly cloudy with some brief sunny breaks more frequent in west, and feeling rather cold in the wind with lows 3 to 5 C and highs about 7 to 9 C.

    MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, moderate east to southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY ... Variable but generally increasing cloudiness, rather cold, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle by late in the day near east coast, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C, easterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... There remains some uncertainty in timing and precise tracking but a rather weak disturbance is expected to drift west across Ireland in this time frame. The winds will turn southerly for a time after it passes, but it will be just the same cool air mass recycled from a different direction. Occasional light rain or drizzle will continue through this interval, but some northern areas could remain drier with perhaps the odd sunny break. Highs will be around 7 or 8 C and nights will be close to freezing with slight frosts any place that manages to clear for a few hours.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weather pattern may remain quite stagnant for several more days as the weak disturbance dies out to the west of Ireland but more minor troughs or areas of cloud and low level moisture could be embedded in the easterly flow well into the weekend of 24th and 25th and beyond into the last week of November. There are persistent signs of a colder variety of arctic air pushing south to replace this cool but not quite wintry air mass, and that could bring wintry conditions including snow, near the end of the month -- however, confidence on this remains moderate rather than high, it could back off from the model runs in a few days but then reappear for later into December, as many signs are pointing to widespread blocking developing over the North Atlantic sector.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light rain and cool at 4 C. A rather vigorous storm system ran up the east coast of the U.S. bringing variable amounts of snow even in the larger cities but 20 cms reported in some inland areas outside of NYC in the Hudson valley, however the main weather story was freezing rain or sleet in the cities, poor road conditions and commuter chaos by the afternoon rush hour which was not a rush but a crawl at best. Next week leads up to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday so this storm is already interfering with a lot of travel plans.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 17 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Breezy and mild with extensive low cloud and spotty drizzle, but some brighter intervals further north and west, as this cloud is streaming in from the Celtic Sea and Irish Sea. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed areas, and highs 12 to 14 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloud breaking to partly cloudy skies with clear intervals, somewhat colder with lows 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy, rather cool compared to the past week, with highs 8 to 11 C. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr. Cloud and possibly some patchy drizzle will be somewhat more prevalent near south and east coasts but all regions should see some brighter intervals.

    MONDAY ... Breezy and colder with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds east-southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

    TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight where this rain does make an appearance (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, not as windy in south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast but some gusty east winds continuing further north, lows about 4 C and highs about 8 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... The disturbance will weaken and move away to the west, but some residual low cloud and light rain or drizzle will continue in a few places, and it will remain rather cold, highs around 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... There is more support now for the slower alternative where the Atlantic tries to mount a comeback recycling the low that crossed Ireland earlier in tandem with a more distant but deep Atlantic low, so that several more days may pass with further cloud and rain, southeast winds and temperatures recovering slightly to about 9 or 10 C. Much colder air will be massing near Norway waiting for this slow-moving disturbance to weaken, and then it could start pushing south towards Britain and Ireland some time around the end of the month.

    My local weather on Friday was pleasant, with some sunny intervals and highs near 7 C. The east coast storm moved through far eastern provinces of Canada with the same sleety snow-rain mixture, and is now north of Newfoundland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 18 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Breezy, rather cool compared to the past week, with highs 8 to 11 C. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr. Some sunny intervals this morning, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy drizzle that will be somewhat more prevalent near south and (by mid-day) east coasts while further north and west, some sunny intervals persisting into the afternoon.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, rather cold, southeast breezes 40 to 60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Lows 2 to 5 C.

    MONDAY ... Breezy and colder with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds east-southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

    TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight where this rain does make an appearance (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, still expected to be rather light (5 to 10 mm amounts) and not as windy in the south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast as gusty east winds continue further north, lows about 4 C and highs about 8 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... The disturbance will weaken and move away to the west, but some residual low cloud and light rain or drizzle will continue in a few places, and it will remain rather cold, lows 2 to 5 C and highs around 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The disturbance will then circle around to the south of Ireland with little change in the weather for several more days, mostly cloudy, outbreaks of drizzle or light rain at times, and highs 8 to 10 C. The Atlantic may eventually win this round as the supply of colder air gets cut off by eventual weakening of the high to the north, and somewhat milder, wet weather will return -- however, models are struggling with the evolution beyond about the middle of next week and the outlook forecasts are going to be subject to changes from time to time.

    Just a reminder, the winter forecast was calling for some more significant wintry weather, but that was to come later in December and into January -- so the first half of December is not the most likely time to see wintry conditions and it may remain rather bland for that period, expect more active weather patterns about a week before Christmas possibly.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast, quite cold but dry, with a slight frost followed by a high of perhaps 3 C. The snow is pretty much all gone now, but remains visible all around us on trees on nearby hills, the elevation here is 500 metres above sea level and the snow line looks to be about 600 metres.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 19 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Breezy and colder, sunny this morning with increasing cloud this afternoon, and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds east-southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

    TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle or light rain at times near east coast, lows 2 to 5 C. Winds east 40 to 60 km/hr.

    TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight where this rain does make an appearance (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C. Some sunny breaks will continue in north Connacht and west Ulster.

    WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, still expected to be rather light (5 to 10 mm amounts) and not as windy in the south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast as gusty east winds continue further north, lows about 4 C and highs about 8 C.

    THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers more isolated although some outbreaks of light rain near southwest coast, lows about 5 C and highs about 9 C. Southeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

    FRIDAY ... Rain in the southwest, isolated showers elsewhere, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr.

    OUTLOOK ... Next weekend will be overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain, more frequent in the south, and highs near 10 C, lows 3 to 6.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold air seems to be held back by a slowly returning Atlantic flow that will likely bring frequent rain and occasional moderate south to southwest winds in the week of 28 November to 4 December.

    My local weather on Sunday was partly to mostly cloudy and a bit milder, highs near 7 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 20 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland


    Apologies for delay in posting, boards having some issues just as I tried the first time around 0730h.

    TODAY ... Cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C. Some sunny breaks will continue in north Connacht and west Ulster.

    TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of sleety light rain with wet snow possible on higher slopes above 300 metres elevation, cold, lows 2 to 4 C. Winds east to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, still expected to be rather light (5 to 10 mm amounts) and not as windy by afternoon in the south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast, but gusty east winds will continue further north, with lows about 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

    THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers more isolated although some outbreaks of light rain near southwest coast, lows about 5 C and highs about 9 C. Southeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

    FRIDAY ... Rain in the southwest, isolated showers elsewhere, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs about 9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Next weekend will be overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain in the south, and highs near 10 C, lows 3 to 6 C. For the north, partly cloudy, rather cold, highs near 7 C and lows -2 to +2 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec will bring rather frequent rain and a few intervals of strong winds with temperatures in the 5 to 8 C range much of the time. Colder air will be poised a little further north and it wouldn't take a lot to adjust this outlook to something a bit colder, milder air is only making a weak push back from the Atlantic.

    My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with a high of about 6 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 21 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Outbreaks of rain (sleety on higher ground) will continue more frequently in central and northern counties, and some local downpours may be heavy with some hail mixing in, but most places will see about 5-10 mm. Where it rains, there will likely be moderate southeast winds, but further south there could be some sunny breaks this morning with somewhat lighter winds around mid-day. Highs 7 to 9 C although about 5 degrees on higher slopes.

    TONIGHT ... A few more showers, partial clearing, cold. Lows 1 to 4 C. Some icy sections could develop on higher roads well inland.

    THURSDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain in southwest and isolated showers elsewhere with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, continued cool with moderate east winds resuming, highs 7 to 9 C.

    FRIDAY ... Occasional rain in south and west, variable cloud with isolated showers in north and east, cool, moderate east winds. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

    SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain or drizzle edging further north into central counties, then dying out with a few sunny breaks by afternoon, lows zero to 3 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, then some overcast and wet conditions moving into south coast later, highs near 9 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY is looking rather wet as areas of low pressure swirl around the southwest coastal regions, 20 to 40 mm rainfalls can be expected in parts of the south and west, tapering to 10 to 20 mm north and east in this period, and highs will continue to hover around the 7 or 8 C mark.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The frontal battleground will continue but there are somewhat faint indications that it might drift a bit south adding the risk of sleet to the mixture of precipitation towards the end of the month, however, coastal and southern areas can probably expect only rain from passing frontal disturbances. There will be moderate south to southwest winds at times near the south coast at least, these may not make a lot of further progress north as a slight easterly flow could continue north of frontal boundaries. Highs throughout will be 6 to 9 C.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and rather cold with highs near 4 C. It was a low overcast that probably ended around mountain peak levels as it looked a bit brighter near the cloud base at times. Meanwhile, exceptionally cold air (below -30 C in northern Manitoba now) is streaming south into the Great Lakes region where some heavy snow squalls are developing overnight, and temperatures will fall during the day to -5 C then all the way to record cold overnight lows for Thursday morning, close to -20 C is expected around Ottawa and Montreal. This is about a month ahead of the usual timetable for temperatures that cold to appear. Hudson Bay has been freezing over very rapidly this past week and even James Bay (which is generally south of the latitude of Ireland) is beginning to freeze over. Once again, this is a month or two ahead of most recent years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 22 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Showers moving west this morning followed by some partial clearing, then further outbreaks of light rain near southwest coasts spreading some distance inland, moderate southeast winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, rather cold away from a cloudier south and southwest coastal region, lows -2 to +3 C. Cloud and some rain at times in southwest, lows 3 to 6 C.

    FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of rain in south and southwest will move gradually north into central counties, 10 to 15 mm in some places. Partly to mostly cloudy further north. Moderate southeast winds and highs 8 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY ... Rain tapering to drizzle in the morning, some partial clearing will follow, cooler, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rather cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

    MONDAY ... Clear intervals, cold at first, then increasing cloud, stronger east to southeast winds returning. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs about 8 or 9 C.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Rather wet and windy much of the time, with an interval of heavier rain and strong south to southwest winds by Wednesday, possible gusts to 110 km/hr then. Highs 8 to 11 C in this interval, possibly a bit higher in south and west on Wednesday 28th.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More unsettled weather will follow but it won't be quite as mild for several days, bringing some risk of sleet or wet snow on hills by end of the week (and month). However, early December could then turn somewhat milder again reaching 9 or 10 C at times.

    Any really cold wintry conditions are probably going to be pushed into mid to late December as the Atlantic resumes its control of the weather for the first half of December, at least that's how it appears now, although the colder air is not being pushed too far back to the north, so this is by no means "carved in stone" -- I would say as a teaser, watch the period around 19 to 23 December for some volatile weather events.

    My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy and a bit milder than recently with a high near 8 C. Light rain was falling this evening. In the eastern regions of Canada and the U.S., bone chilling cold and locally heavy lake effect snow squalls have hit with temperatures tumbling down to near record low values in some places (for this date at least). It is already close to -20 C around Ottawa and Montreal. By the time this arctic air gets to the larger cities of the U.S. northeast, where today will be Thanksgiving Day, it will warm to about -4 C but with bitter wind chills for parade watchers. The south is not particularly warm at about 15-20 C and out west it's quite warm with highs today likely to reach 20 to 25 C in places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 23 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rain becoming moderate to heavy at times in the south, 10 to 20 mm amounts possible. Variable cloud with isolated showers further north. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr but increasing at times near south coast to 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to drizzle, fog may follow especially on higher ground in south. Lows 2 to 5 C south, -2 to +2 C central and inland north, about 3 C near coasts around northern counties.

    SATURDAY ... Isolated showers, some sunny breaks developing, rather cold, moderate east winds. Highs 7 to 9 C.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, some morning frost and fog, risk of icy patches on some rural secondary roads, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

    MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain around south and southwest coastal counties later in the day, becoming rather windy, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming rather heavy and with an increasing threat of strong winds that may push in from the southwest by Wednesday, milder with temperatures slowly rising to 10 to 13 C range. About 30 to 50 mm of rain is possible with this slow-moving complex disturbance. Gusts to 110 km/hr or higher are possible by later Wednesday when a secondary low may form in the trough and tighten the wind gradient considerably for a time. Guidance is rather scattered on details this far out though.

    OUTLOOK ... The pattern following this stormy period will remain rather unsettled with temperatures falling back to more normal 7 to 10 C readings, and occasional bouts of rain and moderate winds. Another mild spell may follow about a week into December but this may be the beginning of a more volatile period as colder air begins to engage from the north.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light rain at times and a high near 5 C. It was record breaking cold in parts of eastern Canada and New England on Thursday, but conditions are moderating in advance of a rather complex storm system that will approach the region late this weekend into Monday and Tuesday of next week, bringing 10-20 cm snowfalls to places around Chicago, Detroit and Toronto.

    California is seeing some heavy rainfalls after months of dry weather, mudslides are expected especially in recent fire-ravaged areas due to instability of slopes. The El Nino pattern usually means above normal rainfalls in California, the desert southwest, and the Gulf states, while rather dry further north. However, this year's El Nino is fighting it out with very cold air already in place over central and eastern Canada which may create a second area of heavy precipitation, mostly snowfall, in the eastern U.S. and parts of eastern Canada.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 24 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks developing especially in north and west, some further outbreaks of light rain in south (2-5 mm), rather cold in the breeze (east 30-50 km/hr), highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT ... Some further clearing, cold. Ice and fog patches in central to north inland counties, lows 1 to 4 C south and coastal, -3 to +2 C central and north.

    SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, rather cold, east winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 7 to 10 C.

    MONDAY ... Sunny at first, then increasing cloud, some rain by late in day in southwest. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Moderate to strong southeast winds developing by afternoon west, evening further east.

    TUESDAY ... Windy and milder with rain, heavy at times. 20-40 mm of rain is expected, winds southeast to south 50-80 km/hr rising to about 80 to 110 km/hr overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures slowly rising to about 10 or 11 C. Extensive fog likely on higher ground.

    WEDNESDAY ... Very windy at times, rain tapering to showers then some variable cloud including sunny breaks, passing squally showers. South to southwest winds peaking at around 90-120 km/hr then may pick up again later in some coastal areas, but with a decreasing trend elsewhere. Temperatures peaking 12 to 14 C fairly early in the day, then steady around 10 C later.

    OUTLOOK ... A brief dry interval will follow then another wind and rain event will sweep in near the end of the day Friday 30th into early Saturday 1st of December. The trend beyond that looks quite mild for several days (9 to 13 C), eventually giving way to considerably colder air masses from north and then east towards second week of December (4 to 7 C). No strong indications of snow in this scenario, a dry cold situation by the looks of current guidance.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast with drizzle that was coating nearby hills with wet snow. Highs reached about 4 C. This rather weak weather system will drop southeast and begin to develop into a much stronger storm for the Midwest U.S. by Monday 26th. Chicago may see about 30 cms of snow from this storm. It has turned a bit milder after the recent cold wave, temperatures in the eastern states have risen to near 7 C. Light rain is falling across parts of the northeast, and it will stay somewhat milder until this Monday storm hits (Tuesday further east) with another surge of cold air following it.

    Astronomy note: Full moon was on Friday at 0540h, "king tides" will continue for several more days towards the lunar perigee and its northern declination maximum mid-week. This means that any onshore strong winds Tuesday-Wednesday could produce at least minor storm surge conditions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 25 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, local showers feeding in from Irish Sea in central Leinster (2 to 5 mm possible). Moderate east winds 30 to 50 km/hr, cool. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, cold, lows 1 to 4 C.

    MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, moderate southeast winds developing and becoming brisk near south coast by afternoon. Highs about 10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Overcast, rain may become heavy at times, 20 to 30 mm in southwest possibly, moderate southeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr, fog on higher terrain. Temperatures steady near 10 or 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will likely bring intervals of strong winds and passing squally showers, details difficult to predict as all guidance showing rather different details (they all bring some strong wind and about 10 to 30 mm rainfalls at some point). Although early Wednesday is the most likely time for the strongest winds, there are now suggestions of a separate low arriving on Thursday with renewed strong winds. Hopefully the guidance will become more consistent in time for the next update. Temperatures seem likely to hover in the 10 to 13 C range, quite mild for late November, falling back to 8 to 10 C in some scenarios. Peak wind gusts could be anywhere from 100 km/hr to 140 km/hr depending on which guidance proves most accurate.

    OUTLOOK ... Friday seems to be a generally dry day between systems as another significant frontal system arrives on Saturday morning with wind and rain, temperatures on Friday near 9 C and on Saturday near 11 C. After that, the pattern remains somewhat unsettled although a few days at a time may be generally dry, then one or two wet days, and staying quite mild in a southwesterly flow.

    My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy and milder with a few brighter intervals and a high near 9 C. A powerful snowstorm is forming up tonight (local time) in Kansas and will be hitting the Chicago region by tonight with about 30 cms of snow, the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday with 10 to 20 cms. A separate low moving up the east coast is drenching the northeast with 30 to 60 mm of rain and temperatures there are close to 10 C. Subtropical storm activity is expected near Bermuda within 24 hours and that system may get swept up into the developing mid-week storminess for Ireland, but all details are very "out of focus" for this event with just three days to go. Stay tuned.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 26 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate southeast winds developing, rain by evening in parts of the southwest. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT ... Windy and mild in the south and west with rain, winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, rainfalls 5 to 15 mm. Lows 7 to 9 C. Further north and east, increasing cloud, moderate southeast winds developing, lows 2 to 5 C.

    TUESDAY ... Intervals of rain (10-20 mm with local amounts near 30 mm in south central counties), slight risk of thunderstorms embedded in the rainfall band for south Connacht and midlands, southeast winds shifting to southwesterly, and easing somewhat for a time as a brief dry slot moves through. Highs 9 to 12 C. Winds gusting to 80 km/hr around mid-day.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking very unsettled with strong winds and squally showers or outbreaks of rain. As guidance stubbornly refuses to give much clarity on details, the situation is currently a watch rather than a specific alert. Some guidance shows strong southwest winds in many areas on Wednesday followed by a renewed bout of strong westerly winds Thursday night into early Friday. Another model advertises that the Wednesday event will be only moderate. Another source suggests that Thursday could bring very strong winds to the southeast. So we have a lot to monitor and very little certainty -- this is likely because the main actor in the disturbed period of weather is heading out from the subtropical Atlantic southeast of Bermuda and data sampling has been less than the amount that the models usually have to work on. We can be fairly confident that it will be unsettled if not downright stormy, and that it will turn very mild as the air will be streaming in from near the Azores on southwest winds, so temperatures could hit 14 C at some point, and will be generally above 10 C.

    FRIDAY will continue quite breezy at least, with a brief interval of clearing possible before another front arrives late at night or on Saturday. Highs will be about 10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for several days, but also some mild, dry spells likely in early December, in a pattern that does not look like it will turn very cold for at least the first half of December.

    Stay tuned on the Wednesday-Thursday situation, I may issue an update if I see better agreement among the main weather models later today.

    My local weather stayed quite mild again, and dry, which is a pleasant bonus at this time of year here. The high was about 8 C. Rain is about to sweep in with heavy wet snow in the mountain ranges around us.

    The Midwest snowstorm turned quite fierce west of Chicago on Sunday with numerous roads closed and power reported out, the situation in Chicago ranges from heavy wet snow in some inland suburbs to a rain-snow mix on the lakefront. That mix is now heading east into southern Michigan and parts of Indiana and Ohio, but it will turn more to snow later today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update -- Monday, 26 November, 2018 -- 6:20 p.m.
    _____________________________________________________

    Although there is still a bit of spread in the guidance, there's enough agreement now to justify alerts as follows:

    ALERT for heavy rainfall on Tuesday with 20 to 40 mm amounts fairly widespread, perhaps heaviest from central Connacht southeast towards midlands and east Munster. Some local spot flooding seems likely. There may also be some strong wind gusts especially near coasts, in the range of 80 to 100 km/hr.

    ADVANCE ALERT for strong winds on Wednesday and again for a time late Thursday. Storm "Diana" will approach Ireland and turn north on Wednesday morning but may come close enough to produce wind gusts of 90 to 120 km/hr in some exposed coastal locations especially around Connacht and west Munster. Rainfall with this system appears to be sub-alert 10 to 20 mm amounts. After the storm passes Scotland late Wednesday, a secondary low could form near the south coast bringing an interval of heavier rain and perhaps strong winds although this risk seems slight and more aimed towards Wales and southwest England, so it remains in the "watch" category. And then later Thursday part of the original storm circulation will break away and return towards northwest coastal regions bringing a final round of strong winds perhaps again in the 90 to 120 km/hr range for Thursday night and Friday morning.

    Although we have greater consensus from the guidance now this remains a rather fluid situation prone to last minute upgrades or downgrades depending on actual events, so please follow weather forecasts closely in the next few days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 27 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Heavy rainfall alert in place, 20 to 40 mm in many areas this morning, tapering off around mid-day except in north Leinster and east Ulster where it could continue to the afternoon. With this band of heavy rain, some embedded squally thunderstorms are possible and there could be very localized wind damage or hail reported, most likely in central Munster to south Connacht. After the band of rain moves through, some clearing may develop and winds will ease from southerly gales of 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 110 km/hr, to about 30 to 50 km/hr from the southwest this afternoon and evening. Intermittent light rain will return from the southwest by evening. It will be quite mild with highs near 10 C in north Leinster and east Ulster, to 14 C in parts of west Munster.

    TONIGHT into WEDNESDAY ... Storm "Diana" will move quickly past Ireland in two waves, the first one later tonight and Wednesday morning, and a second wave around mid-day. Winds will increase again to southerly 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed locations, veering slowly to southwest and easing slightly by afternoon or evening. Severe and damaging gusts are possible, especially around coastal Connacht, and possibly some other coastal areas. Overnight lows only falling to about 10 C, then highs around 12 or 13 C during the morning, with temperatures falling slowly by late afternoon, winds then steady and moderate southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 mm of rain on average but potential for 20 mm in some parts of the southeast as a secondary wave forms to the west of Cornwall and moves through in the evening.

    THURSDAY ... Windy with passing squally showers, winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Windy at times, further showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Overcast, mild, rain at times, moderate southwest winds could become strong again on Sunday. Highs near 10 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, mild, possible stormy intervals to follow within a week to ten days.

    My local weather on Monday was cloudy with occasional rain mixing with melting snowflakes at times, highs near 3 C. Further rain-snow mix is expected here on Tuesday.

    Watch for updates if storm "Diana" makes any more threatening moves than what you see in this forecast -- there is still some spread in the guidance on this storm which is currently just northwest of the Azores around 42N 36W.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Forecast Update -- Tues 27 Nov 2018 -- 7:30 p.m.
    ______________________________________________


    Storm "Diana" is bearing down rapidly on the southwest counties and due to its elongated shape it may have its greatest wind impacts on the south coast even as far east as Wexford tomorrow. The timing for strongest wind gusts appears to be 0800h Kerry to 1100h Waterford and about 1100-1200h Wexford.

    A recent ship report taken surprisingly close to the centre of this well-forecasted cyclone showed 52 knot winds and a pressure of 954 mbs. This underscores the potential for damaging wind gusts to reach the south coast of Ireland even if Diana weakens slightly. Therefore I am upgrading previous wording and predicting the potential for 130 km/hr wind gusts in exposed areas of the south coast and 110 km/hr well inland where terrain does not block south to southwest winds from moving inland easily.

    Unlike many storms on this sort of track, the effects may spread out more around the south and east and less dramatically for the west and north but we will maintain an alert to 120 km/hr for west coast exposed areas as a worst case scenario, don't be absolutely surprised if the actual results are a bit lower as the main force of this storm seems to be spinning off to its east as it moves northeastward at a rapid pace.

    Current satellite fix on position is 45.8N 25.2W as of 1900h. Estimated central pressure was 950 mbs.

    Stay safe and avoid unnecessary road travel especially in southern counties tomorrow.

    The rest of the forecast remains about the same and there may be some outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain with the strong winds, making driving or walking that much more hazardous.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 28 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Very windy along the south coast this morning, with some severe gusts possible, southerly winds 80 to 120 km/hr. Strong gusts will spread inland where terrain permits, but east coast may remain more moderate until mid-day. West coast likely to see moderate south to southwest winds veering to westerly and increasing to 70 to 100 km/hr. Galway Bay may experience higher gusts and some coastal flooding, but coastal flooding more widespread on south coast especially around times of high tides. Rain will increase gradually becoming more persistent mid-day and afternoon. About 10 to 15 mm rain for most places. Strong westerly winds will then sweep through central counties to reach the east coast (westerly 60 to 90 km/hr with some higher gusts). Very mild especially before the wind shifts to westerly, 13 to 15 C.

    TONIGHT ... Some further rain likely, moderate southwest winds continuing and a spell of heavier rain likely in the southeast towards Thursday morning. Lows 5 to 8 C.

    THURSDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, scattered showers with some hail and thunder, winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Highs about 10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Rather windy especially in northern counties, passing showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY ... Intervals of rain, mild in south (10 to 12 C), foggy and damp further north, 7 to 9 C. Moderate southwest winds near south coast, light east winds more likely further north.

    SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, highs near 11 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Several more days of mild temperatures and moderate winds with occasional rain as frontal systems continue to parade in from the Atlantic. The pattern looks set to change somewhat to colder near the middle of December.

    My local weather on Tuesday was mild with rain (also) and the high was 6 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 29 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rain this morning in eastern counties should clear before mid-day. There will be some sunny breaks this morning in western and central counties, followed by scattered showers, some of which could produce hail and thunder. Winds will increase gradually from the southwest to reach 50-80 km/hr, possibly closer to 100 km/hr in gusts near northern coasts. Not as mild but still a little above average with highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, windy, lows 4 to 7 C.

    FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, breezy to windy at times (WSW 40 to 70 km/hr). Highs 8 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of rain from early morning to mid-day, more persistent in south, then brief clearing, followed by more rain by the evening hours, this time heavier in central counties. Overall about 10-15 mm rainfalls are expected. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

    SUNDAY ... Rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

    MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 8 C.

    TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Intervals of moderate or heavy rain at times with gusty southwest winds, more likely to be strong near south and southwest coasts. Highs generally close to 10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... A little colder towards the end of next week, although not sharp wintry cold, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C by Friday or Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend for several days back towards 10 C, however the Atlantic looks like it has had enough action for a while and wants to rest again. (perhaps I am projecting)

    My local weather was quite pleasant, dry although cloudy and mild at 8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 30 November, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, some rather heavy with hail and thunder, breezy to windy at times (WSW 40 to 70 km/hr, and gusts to near 100 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of west and north). Highs 8 to 10 C. Somewhat less windy by afternoon and evening.

    TONIGHT ... Clearing in parts of inland north may allow a slight frost to develop, lows -1 to +3 C, overcast further south with rain developing by morning, lows 3 to 6 C.

    SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of rain from early morning to mid-day, more persistent in south, then brief clearing, followed by more rain by the evening hours, this time heavier in central counties. Overall about 10-15 mm rainfalls are expected. with highs 7 to 11 C. Winds near the south coast may become moderate southwesterly as low pressure passes, 50 to 80 km/hr, veering westerly and easing. Further north, winds will be light to moderate easterly for a time, then variable.

    SUNDAY ... Rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain possible.

    MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 8 C. About 5 to 10 mm rain likely.

    TUESDAY ... Heavy rain is possible across the south, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this on top of about 50 mm over the previous few days may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central Connacht. Highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north.

    WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, highs 5 to 8 C.

    THURSDAY to SUNDAY appears very unsettled with strong westerly winds at times, more outbreaks of rain with 30 to 50 mm potential, and highs 8 to 11 C (but prone to turning much colder at times in Ulster). Some intervals of colder northwest winds during this period may bring local snow on hills in the north.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder by mid-month, likely to remain windy and unsettled with more chances for wintry mixtures of precipitation as the middle of December approaches.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a little rain at times and mild, highs near 7 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 1 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... As heavier rain moves east across Ulster this morning, skies will become partly cloudy in many areas with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mingled with sunny breaks, and it will be quite mild in the south with highs 11 to 13 C, while further north it will remain overcast and highs will be only 7 or 8 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain at times, foggy in south and west, lows 2 to 5 C. Clear intervals to start the night in north and east, slight frosts then rising temperatures under cloud towards morning, lows -2 to +2 C.

    SUNDAY ... Rain at times, with highs near 10 or 11 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain possible.

    MONDAY ... Showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 8 C. About 2 to 5 mm rain likely. Clearing for the overnight hours may bring a sharp frost to some parts of Ulster and north Leinster.

    TUESDAY ... After frost clears some northeastern counties, cloud will spread in then heavy rain will be likely across the south, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this on top of about 50 mm over the previous few days may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry until mid-day, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central Connacht. Rain will eventually spread to most northern areas later in the day also, 10 to 20 mm can be expected there. Morning lows -2 to +2 C north and east, 4 to 7 C south and west, then highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north, and about 8 C from Galway across to Dublin.

    WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. A sharp frost may once again develop by evening in advance of the next system's cloud spreading in after midnight.

    THURSDAY ... Windy with rain at times, highs 9 to 12 C, winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will see further strong winds veering more to west then northwest, with fewer showers although not completely dry, and slowly falling temperatures, around 8 C Friday and 6 C Saturday.

    SUNDAY may bring a respite from the wind as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between systems, some sunshine with morning frosts and afternoon highs 5 to 9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... More wind and rain seem inevitable for part of the following week, with milder temperatures returning briefly.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast and foggy with persistent light rain and highs near 5 C. We are expecting a rather unusual week of dry weather to begin around Sunday after one more day in the current pattern, may even see glimpses of the Sun which will be welcome.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 2 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... A few brighter intervals at first, very mild in the south, turning milder in the north rather gradually, with rain becoming more persistent by afternoon, 10 to 20 mm possible. Highs near 10 or 11 C except 12 to 14 C inland south. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr at least near some coasts.

    TONIGHT ... Another interval of rain likely with some heavy falls possible in the south (20 mm). Mild, lows 6 to 8 C.

    MONDAY ... Rain ending with showers becoming widely scattered then clearing, highs 8 to 10 C. Clearing and cold by evening.

    MONDAY NIGHT ... Clear and cold with widespread sharp frost likely, lows -4 to +2 C.

    TUESDAY ... After frost slowly clears from some northeastern counties, cloud will spread in then heavy rain will be likely across the south by afternoon and evening, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this combined with some earlier rainfalls may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry until mid-day, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central and northern Connacht then later into Ulster. Rain will eventually spread to most northern areas later in the day and overnight into Wednesday morning, and 10 to 20 mm can be expected there. Morning lows -4 to +2 C, then highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north, and about 8 C from Galway across to Dublin.

    WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. A sharp frost may once again develop by evening in advance of the next system's cloud spreading in after midnight.

    THURSDAY ... Early frost clearing rapidly in early morning hours, becoming windy with rain at times, highs 9 to 12 C, winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr. About 20 to 30 mm rain possible.

    FRIDAY ... Windy with passing showers, some sunny intervals, feeling cold in strong west to northwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr (possibly stronger in Ulster). Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

    SATURDAY ... Winds easing gradually, some sunny intervals, cold. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy and milder again with some rain likely, highs near 10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Eventually a dry spell with near normal temperatures for mid-December can be expected in the second week of the month, and it could turn colder during that time.

    My local weather was dry with some glimpses of sunshine through extensive higher cloud layers, and highs near 5 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 3 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rain clearing east this morning, followed by partly cloudy skies with some sunshine by afternoon. Highs about 9 or 10 C except closer to 12 C near south coast.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and cold, frost developing, lows -3 to +2 C.

    TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud by mid-day, rain spreading into south and west by late afternoon. Rather cold with temperatures slowly rising throughout the day to reach about 10 C by evening in the south, 7 in central counties and only about 4 or 5 C in Ulster. Rain will continue most of the night, with some outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in higher parts of the north, overnight lows rising to 8 C in south, staying close to 2 or 3 C in north. About 15 to 30 mm of rain will fall in the south, 5 to 15 mm further north (some 3 to 5 cm snow accumulations on higher ground possible in Ulster and Connacht, mainly above 200 metres asl).

    WEDNESDAY ... Rain ending, some clearing by late morning, but a few showers continuing to feed in from west coast, highs 8 to 10 C.

    THURSDAY ... Becoming windy with rain, milder, lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 12 C. About 20-30 mm of rain likely. Winds southwest rising to 70 to 100 km/hr.

    FRIDAY ... Windy with passing squally showers, turning colder during the day with temperatures falling from morning highs of 10 C to about 5 C in the afternoon. Winds west to northwest 70 to 120 km/hr, strongest near northwest coasts.

    SATURDAY ... Continued rather windy and cold, some sunny intervals developing, winds northwest backing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows about 2 C and highs about 6 or 7 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will bring a return of milder, wet weather and some fog, highs near 10 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is rather scattered beyond the seven day outlook and there are some signs of a turn to colder but dry weather, although another set of models maintain the unsettled westerly flow longer.

    My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a few breaks, and rather cold with highs of about 4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 4 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Sunny intervals, then increasing cloud. The chilly start will linger in east and north most of the day, while it gets more rapidly milder in the south and west. After thicker cloud arrives, rain will start by mid-afternoon in the south and parts of the west, however it will only become moderately heavy tonight. Winds will increase in the south to south-southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, while remaining fairly light in most other places until after dark. Highs by late afternoon 8 to 10 C south and west, 6 C east and north.

    TONIGHT ... Breezy with 10-15 mm of rain in many places, some mixing with sleet or wet snow on higher terrain in the north well inland from coasts (mostly above 300 metres elevation). Turning quite mild in the south and about as far north as Galway to Dublin eventually, with temperatures reaching 11 or 12 C overnight before falling back slightly by morning. The trend further north, while similar, will only reach about 7 or 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Rain clearing east, then variable cloud, rather mild, moderate westerly winds backing to southwest by afternoon, highs about 10 C.

    THURSDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, mostly rather light and drizzly, and moderate southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, morning lows 6 to 8 C and afternoon highs 11 to 13 C. Becoming very windy overnight, winds west-southwest 80 to 120 km/hr, squally showers, temperatures slowly falling to about 7 C.

    FRIDAY ... During the early morning hours, very windy with squally showers, winds west-southwest 80 to 120 km/hr. During the day, partly to mostly cloudy, passing squally showers with hail, longer dry intervals near east and south coast, frequent rain likely in west and north, and very windy all day (veering to west-northwest 80 to 120 km/hr). Northwest coastal regions will get the strongest gusts. Temperatures on Friday will fall slowly to about 6 C then remain steady.

    SATURDAY ... Continued rather windy, variable cloud for most of the day with another interval of rain developing by late afternoon and evening, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

    SUNDAY ... Windy, clearing slowly, although some residual showers near north coast, cold. Winds north-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

    MONDAY-TUESDAY ... High pressure will build over Ireland and transfer most of its central pressure into Scotland linking to high pressure in Sweden. This will gradually set up an easterly spell of winds and it will become quite cold, daytime highs 4 to 7 C and overnight lows about -3 to -1 C. There should be some sunshine at least with this early part of the cold spell.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Easterly winds will continue, sleety light precipitation will appear near east coast at times by mid-week, and this could turn to snow inland over higher ground and possibly even over most elevations, although amounts appear likely to be small. Highs will remain quite cold in the 3 to 6 C range, lows -4 to +1 C (the milder nights due to east winds off the still rather warm Irish Sea).

    This spell may moderate to something more average although still rather dry, and the research that I've done indicates that any settled periods lasting to about the 20th would likely be followed by stormy intervals 21st to 23rd, details on that a long way off but could involve a brief return to mild, wet weather and another round of strong northwest winds similar to this coming Friday, so that would be my best guess for the sort of weather pattern that might greet a certain S. Claus of the North Pole on the 24th. We shall see about that.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast and cold, high pressure is building up over the interior valleys of B.C. and this often promotes an inversion and low cloud ceilings. It might be sunny in the alpine regions but you have to get there to find out. There was the odd snowflake drifting around in the breeze (local lakes are all open, ice does not form on them except in very cold winters), and it was about 2 or 3 degrees for a high.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 5 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rain gradually ending this morning, followed by mostly cloudy skies with a few breaks, and isolated showers or patches of drizzly light rain, winds turning more westerly by afternoon and backing to southerly by evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT ... Misty, some fog on hills, rain developing, 3 to 7 mm on average. Lows 5 to 8 C.

    THURSDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, 10 to 15 mm potential. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 11 to 13 C.

    THURSDAY NIGHT ... Becoming windy with some severe gusts near coasts (south and west in particular), winds southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr. Rain becoming squally and showery, a further 5 to 10 mm likely, temperatures steady 7 or 8 C.

    FRIDAY ... Windy, turning slightly colder by afternoon, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, passing squalls of rain or hail, some breaks in the overcast near south and east coasts. Highs 8 or 9 C in the morning, temperatures about 6 or 7 by afternoon.

    SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

    MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, rather cold, morning frosts with lows -2 to +2 C, afternoon highs near 6 C.

    TUESDAY ... A sharp frost likely, sunny intervals, possibly some isolated showers or sleety light rain developing by afternoon, in brisk east winds. Lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The cold air will remain in place but guidance splits on whether Atlantic moisture makes any kind of a push back (which could lead to sleet or snow), or if high pressure remains close enough that the weather is generally settled later in the week with a few sea-effect streamers of hail, cold rain or sleet. Eventually this cold spell probably ends at least briefly with an Atlantic storm system pushing back in around the 20th or 21st.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with glimpses of blue sky off to our northeast over higher terrain, but the sun never got into that part of the sky so it was sunny a few miles away. It was quite cold, highs barely above freezing at about 2 C. There's enough cloud to keep the nights from being much colder than the days though. The snow line here remains 200 metres above the valley floor on all the local hills and it's quite a sharp cutoff indicating that no melting is taking place up there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 6 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Misty and mild with occasional rain, rather foggy in higher elevations, about 10 to 20 mm rain expected. Highs 11 to 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr near exposed coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr inland.

    TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy towards midnight, especially near west coast and extending into Ulster and north midlands overnight. Winds southwest 80 to 120 km/hr, veering more westerly towards morning. Some severe and damaging gusts are likely near Donegal Bay. Squally showers will continue, and temperatures will be falling slowly from near 12 C at first to 7 C by morning.

    FRIDAY ... Very windy in northern counties, westerly 80 to 120 km/hr, continued risk of damaging gusts. Squally showers with hail and thunder possible. Somewhat less extreme further south but certainly a windy day with passing showers, winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the 8 to 10 C range.

    SATURDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts in north, and about 10 mm of rain likely. Turning colder overnight into Sunday morning, winds northwest 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 4 C.

    SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, some sunny intervals, and highs only 5 to 7 C. Winds north-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

    MONDAY ... After a slight frost, some sunshine and cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 6 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Guidance has recently changed rather abruptly -- the high that was supposed to hang around to the north and produce east winds is being shown under various degrees of attack from the Atlantic which spins off a number of strong disturbances next week, according to most of the models. There could be some strong westerly winds again if this new solution holds, but I suspect it may be an episode of what we call "model chaos" or the classic flip-flop where the former solution comes back into view if you wait a day or two. It may be a result of a difficult to forecast low crossing the southern U.S. this weekend and reaching the western Atlantic on Monday, now looking more energetic than previously thought. So in other words, we can't be too sure what to trust in these model offerings, but it is no longer all that likely to stay dry or settled. As to the cold part of the previous outlook, that may generally hold, because while the Atlantic seems capable of pushing back in, it may not be bringing very mild air along, but working instead with the cold air that is left behind by Sunday's cold outbreak and more cold air flooding south from Greenland into the north central Atlantic. What all this means is that there could be some very nasty weather systems developing mid to late week (around Thursday 13th) and from then to about the 21st frequent wind, sometimes gale force, and rain with some risk of snow in the mix. So don't be lulled into a false sense of security by today's rather benign mild conditions.

    My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with some cloud returning by late afternoon, and cold, highs near 2 C. The storm I mentioned crossing the southern U.S. is slowly moving into southern California and Arizona tonight, and will be in Texas by the weekend, bringing a risk of freezing rain and heavy snow to parts of the interior southeastern states by Sunday night and Monday. Washington D.C. seems to be near the northern edge of the likely snowfall zone, so it should largely miss the northeast U.S., and move out into the western Atlantic. We'll be keeping a close eye on this storm which might arrive in Ireland around Thursday of next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 7 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Windy and turning colder with passing squally showers, some with hail and thunder, more frequent in north and west. Some sunny intervals for south and east between showers. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr for most, 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Temperatures steady or slowly falling in the 7 to 9 C range.

    TONIGHT ... Windy, occasional rain, temperatures steady near 6 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Rainfalls of 5 to 15 mm expected in total.

    SATURDAY ... Continued windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier again towards late afternoon. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 100 km/hr near coasts. Highs of 9 or 10 C.

    SATURDAY NIGHT ... Windy, rain becoming showery, winds veering to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some stronger gusts in west and north. Lows about 3 C.

    SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and colder again with northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers and some sunny breaks, highs about 7 C.

    MONDAY ... Some clear intervals in the early morning, slight frosts but clouding over from west by morning, then cloudy with brief sunny breaks (more likely in east), drizzle or light rain developing from west, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds, a little milder, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring strong southwest to west winds at times, rain and temperatures in the 8 to 10 C range. Although that may sound mild, in these strong winds it may feel quite cold generally.

    OUTLOOK ... the period from the end of next week right up to the Christmas holiday period looks unsettled with frequent passing lows, bouts of wind and rain, and sometimes rather severe gusts possible, and temperatures will be mostly in the 5 to 9 C range.

    My local weather was cold and sunny most of the day with occasional cloudy intervals, a morning low of about -7 C and a daytime high only around -2 C, then by evening it had fallen back to -8 C with a gusty east wind coming down from local mountains for a time, making it feel like it was -15 C. This is the coldest we've had so far this early winter (no snow on the ground so it has frozen slightly near the surface).

    A storm is brewing over northern Mexico and Arizona-New Mexico, moving into Texas later today with wintry outbreaks developing in states from Oklahoma east to South Carolina and northern Georgia. This will bring 20 to 30 cms of snow to some parts of North Carolina and south central Virginia over the weekend, with the northern limit of snow likely to be Washington D.C. east to Ocean City Maryland. At this point the storm is not expected to affect the northeastern states or Great Lakes regions which will stay under cold high pressure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 8 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Continued windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier again towards late afternoon. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 100 km/hr near coasts. Highs of 9 to 12 C, mildest in south and southeast. About 5-10 mm of rain for most.

    SATURDAY NIGHT ... Windy, rain becoming showery, winds veering to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some stronger gusts in west and north. Lows about 3 C. A further 5 mm of rain in most places.

    SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and colder again with northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers and some sunny breaks, highs about 7 C. Winds easing towards late afternoon and backing to west then southwest overnight.

    MONDAY ... Some clear intervals in the early morning, slight frosts but clouding over from west by morning, then cloudy with brief sunny breaks (more likely in east), drizzle or light rain developing from west, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds, a little milder, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring strong southwest to west winds at times, rain and temperatures in the 6 to 10 C range. Although that may sound mild, in these strong winds it may feel quite cold generally. There could be one glancing blow from a stronger Atlantic storm in this period, affecting mostly the northwestern counties with gusts to 120 km/hr. It appears somewhat more moderate for the south and east. Some slight frosts could develop at night in any breaks in overcast, as the jet stream will be dropping a bit further south and taking the milder air masses down towards the Biscay region.

    OUTLOOK ... There are very interesting maps to ponder by next weekend and into the following week. At that time scale, we can't be too confident any of them will materialize, but in one case I am actually hoping the map is wrong because it would produce a storm to rival "Darwin" in Feb 2014 and we remember how much damage and disruption that brought. The map in question is the current day 9 output from the leading European model (meaning Sunday into early Monday of next weekend). Much less threatening lows are shown on other guidance but in roughly the same place (off the west coast of Ireland). Another set of maps that catches your attention shows up near the end of the 16-day GFS model run, where we find strong northwest winds followed by a very cold arctic outbreak just in time for Christmas. This is actually just about what my long-range forecast was suggesting might happen, so in this case I hope it does happen but at the same time if it doesn't, there's the compensation that travel in Ireland and the U.K. won't be disrupted by snow in some places (which would be likely if the maps are accurate). So be aware, maps at this time scale are speculative at best and their main usefulness is to alert us to potential weather types that could occur around then, I tend to use this rule -- a four day forecast map is likely to verify somewhere close to its target within 12 hours, an eight day forecast map could verify somewhere within a few hundred miles within a day or two of its intended timing, and a sixteen day map could verify once or twice a season somewhere on earth. Well it's not quite that bad, but a fairly good rule to keep in mind.

    My local weather remains very cold, it cleared up again during the day to reveal stunning views of snow-covered mountains (snow up there is a rather thin 5-10 cm covering) and the high was only -3 C. It is currently clear and -10 C. Heavy rain is spreading east from Texas and turning to sleet in parts of Arkansas now, the first stage of what may turn out to be an unusual heavy snowfall event for places like Richmond VA and Raleigh-Durham NC. This still appears likely to cut off just south of the Washington D.C. region and miss NYC and Boston. Remnants of this low may bring the strong winds to Ireland around next Thursday or so (not the storm for the following weekend, that won't even be born until a week from now, if it happens that way).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 9 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and feeling colder with passing showers and some sunny breaks. Highs 8 to 10 C. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr easing by afternoon, backing to westerly 50 km/hr.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, winds easing to calm inland with slight frosts possible, lows 1 to 4 C.

    MONDAY ... Cloudy in the west and north, some light rain developing by late in the day. Partly cloudy to overcast elsewhere but dry. Highs about 8 C east to 11 C west.

    TUESDAY ... Overcast, occasional light rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... A few intervals of light rain, brisk south to southeast winds developing, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

    OUTLOOK ... There may be some stronger winds again by end of the week or into the weekend. While the intense storm shown on the European model has retreated to the central Atlantic during the weekend, other disturbances could still intensify to gale if not storm force around the weekend, while temperatures remain in the 7 to 10 C range. One change in model guidance has been that the colder air to the east, which you may recall was once thought likely to reach western Europe, is proving a little less of a pushover for the Atlantic than was the trend over the past few days, and may in fact try to work its way as far west as the eastern parts of Britain. This would have the effect of deflecting any strong storms towards Iceland and keeping Ireland in a rather bland transitional zone between regimes. However, another consequence is that the air mass contrast then remains in place long enough to continue in place when the energy peak around the 21st develops, and that could make any Atlantic storms around that date quite intense, with potential for much colder weather to follow around Christmas.

    My local weather on Saturday was partly sunny and cold, although not quite as brisk as the past few days with the high creeping back up to about -1 C. It has turned cloudy tonight keeping our temperature near that same level. Heavy rain has spread through the southeastern states and snow is breaking out in parts of NC and VA, still expected to stay mostly south of Washington D.C. then this storm will move into the Atlantic by Monday night and head towards Iceland. Ireland may feel a slight after-effect in the form of a trailing frontal trough reaching the west coast around Thursday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 10 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, spotty light rain near west coast later in the day, not as windy and while rather cold at first, milder again by afternoon and evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT ... Overcast, occasional light rain, mostly confined to west, lows 6 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY ... Overcast, rather foggy in higher elevations, drizzle or light rain becoming sleety on some higher slopes, highs 7 to 9 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain, stronger southeast winds developing to 50-80 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 9 C, except about 11 C in west Munster. About 10-15 mm rainfalls expected.

    THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, colder especially in Leinster and Ulster as east winds briefly push into those regions, highs only 5 to 8 C. Partly to mostly cloudy, some outbreaks of rain in south and west, staying milder near 10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Windy and rather mild with rain at times, highs near 11 C. South to southwest winds 70-110 km/hr possible.

    OUTLOOK ... Very windy next weekend, details may change closer to the time but winds could gust to 120 km/hr during Saturday and then Sunday would likely remain windy, temperatures near 10 C. Following that, another very strong Atlantic storm is expected to develop in the central regions of the ocean and make some progress east, while engaging with the colder air lurking to the north. This sets up various outcomes on different guidance in the days leading up to Christmas, but the theme is generally one of strong winds, slowly falling temperatures and increasing chances for snow in the mix. We can deal with the details when the models are in better agreement. The coldest period appears to be well-timed for 24th-26th of December, but while that may set a festive mood, it may also be a problem for people with travel plans. Eastern England could be harder hit by any wintry weather in this scenario so if you're travelling through London that might become an issue too.

    My local weather remained dry although a lot of low cloud formed on Sunday and it turned just a bit milder, reaching +1 C. Snow is likely to start falling here later today but heavier amounts are due mid-week (the ground is still bare although slightly frozen in our valley here, the snow line remains stuck at 200 metres above us -- it's a fifteen minute drive to get into 10-15 cm snow depths and ski trails that are up about 1,000 metres above sea level). The east coast storm delivered what was promised and more, Richmond VA had 29 cms of snow, and the two Washington airports had nothing. The snow apparently cut off a few miles south of DCA, and now most of this storm is over the Atlantic. Two more will form in a chain along its frontal boundary and those will each come a bit closer to Ireland later in the week, this first one is headed more towards western Iceland.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 11 December, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Overcast with occasional light rain slowly spreading further east, but staying dry for a good part of the day in some eastern, central and northern counties. Moderate southeast winds at times, feeling rather chilly especially near east coast. Highs 8 to 11 C. About 5 to 10 mm rainfalls. Rather foggy on some higher terrain due to lower cloud ceilings setting in.

    TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain or drizzle, lows 4 to 6 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Brisk southeast winds, feeling rather cold despite highs of 9 to 12 C, occasional rain redeveloping in southwest and moving gradually further north and east. Winds southeast 50 to 80 km/hr.

    THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of showery light rain, lows near 3 C and highs 6 to 10 C, coolest in east Ulster and north Leinster where a chilly southeast wind is likely.

    FRIDAY ... Becoming quite windy at times, outbreaks of rain, winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The risk of very strong winds this coming weekend appears to be somewhat diminished but could return to the forecast, but it will more predictably be reasonably mild (8 to 10 C) with southwest winds and some rain. Next week offers two possible outcomes. One would be a gradual ramping up towards a noteworthy windstorm event by about Friday 21st as deep low pressure in the central Atlantic spawns a secondary disturbance (this from the European model). Other guidance suggests less intense low pressure coming in several waves and being followed by increasingly cold weather towards the weekend before Christmas, with some suggestions of the potential for snow in some parts of Ireland and Britain. There is nothing really carved in stone about either of these scenarios and a cynic might guess that some unknown third alternative will actually happen. For now, it's a case of grab a chair and wait for the verdict by mother nature.

    My local weather has turned snowy for the second time this season (we had a brief snow cover about a month ago). This time I think we are going down for the count with daily snowfalls and every chance of being buried under 20-40 cms by end of this week, with some risk of it occasionally turning to rain which makes it harder to move of course. Today we started out with a 3-5 cm coating and temperatures steady near 0.5 degrees. They are digging out of their snowfall in southern Virginia but North Carolina was still getting more snow on Monday from a secondary wave that will eventually become the low approaching northwest Ireland around Thursday into Friday after travelling across the Atlantic all week. The first storm is already south of Nova Scotia, quite intense, but heading for Iceland with its strong winds.


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